Foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus and its development trends. On the issue of trends in the development of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus

Russian-Belarusian relations are, first of all, allied cooperation and close partnership in the economic, political and military spheres. It is carried out within the framework of the CIS, CSTO, Customs Union and Common Economic Space, Eurasian economic union.

There are also Treaties between our two countries:

• on friendship, good neighborliness and cooperation of February 21, 1995,
• on the formation of the Community of Russia and Belarus dated April 2, 1996.

In recent years, two good neighbors, friends and partners have experienced acute contradictions regarding the supply of food to the Russian Federation from the Republic of Belarus. In August 2014, when Russia, in response to EU and US sanctions, introduced restrictions on the import of food products from a number of Western countries, Belarus became not only major exporter many types of food products that were not previously supplied to Russia, but are also re-exported.

“Rosselkhoznadzor has repeatedly recorded attempts to import dubious plant products from Belarus, and also stated that a third of Belarusian goods are supplied to Russia bypassing temporary checkpoints” (tass.ru).

In the spring of 2016, a decision was made to suspend the import of chicken and other types of meat from five large enterprises Belarus. The reason is repeated violations of the veterinary and sanitary requirements of the EEC. A little later, a phased ban on the import of products from a number of Belarusian dairy enterprises was introduced due to numerous cases of products arriving from Belarus with false documents.

At the same time, the Belarusian side did not recognize such claims of Rosselkhoznadzor to its food; they were even harshly criticized by Lukashenko in December 2016.

Today, according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, trade between Russia and Belarus is gaining momentum.

“In 2017, we overcame the process of decreasing mutual trade turnover and reached its growth. Today it is very important to consolidate positive trends and ensure further expansion of trade relations between our countries, including through the elimination of mutual barriers, withdrawals, and the creation of an equal competitive environment” (Alexander Lukashenko).

Foreign trade turnover of Russia and Belarus

In 2017, the restoration of trade turnover between the countries began. According to data published by the Federal Customs Service, over the past year the volume of foreign trade turnover between our countries increased by 36.7% and reached $28.3 billion. At the same time, the share of Belarus in total turnover increased to 4.9% percent. foreign trade Russia.

Source: Federal Customs Service

In January-April 2018, mutual trade turnover amounted to 10.2 billion. If such positive dynamics continue, forecasts for the current year are encouraging.

Rice. 1. Dynamics of trade turnover between Russia and Belarus
Source: Federal Customs Service

Let's talk in more detail about its structure. There have been some minor changes. The share of goods imported to Russia from Belarus has decreased from 41.3 to 37.1% since 2013; on the contrary, the share of goods exported from the Russian Federation to this country increased from 58.7 to 62.9% in 2017.

Rice. 2. Structure of foreign trade turnover between Russia and Belarus, percent
Source FCS

Moreover, over the last year alone, exports of goods from Russia to Belarus increased by 40% to 17.8 billion, and the volume of imports of Belarusian goods into Russia exceeded last year’s figures by more than 31%, amounting to 10.5 billion.

Rice. 3. Dynamics of Russian-Belarusian trade for 2013-2017, billion dollars
Source FCS

« Russian companies They supply Belarus mainly with equipment, metals, chemicals and food. In the opposite direction there are supplies of food, agricultural goods, textiles, vehicles and other things.
Let us remember that for Belarus Russia is the main market for domestic goods.” (D. Medvedev)

Export from Russia to Belarus

According to the conclusion of the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database, the Republic of Belarus ranks somewhere in 45th place among world importers - $34.2 billion. Of this volume, 52% are goods from Russia.

Today, in the structure of Russian exports, this country is partner No. 4 - 5%.

During the period 2013-2017, Russia supplied goods worth $86.1 billion to Belarus. More than half of Russian supplies to the Belarusian side are:

• mineral products - 35 billion (40.7%), 98% of which are exports of oil and petroleum products;
• goods from the “Hidden Section” for 14.9 billion (17.3%).

At the end of 2017, the total share of products supplied from the Russian Federation from the four main product groups was 74.6%.

Rice. 4. Change in the share of goods of the main commodity groups of foreign trade activities exported from Russia to Belarus
Source: Federal Customs Service

Compared to the results of 2013, a decrease in export volumes was observed for these groups of goods, with the exception of two:

• mineral products - from 43% in 2013 to 38.1 in 2017;
• products from the “Hidden Section” from 16.6% to 16, respectively.

But in 2017, there was an increase in exports for all major product groups.

Source: Federal Customs Service

Import to Russia from Belarus

According to the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database, the Republic of Belarus is the 47th exporter in the world - $29.2 billion. Almost 36% of it is supplied to Russia.

Today, in terms of imports, supplies from Belarus are in 4th place with a share of 4.8%.

During the period 2013-2017, goods worth $54.4 billion were supplied to the Russian Federation from the partner state. Purchases of the Russian Federation in this country are mainly “Products of animal origin” (21%), “Machinery, equipment and apparatus” (16%), as well as “Transport” (11%), according to the nomenclature of foreign trade activities.

At the end of 2017, their total share in the volume of exports from the Russian Federation to Belarus was 53.2%.

In 2017, Belarus exported goods totaling $29.2 billion, which is 24% more than in 2016. Imports of goods amounted to $34.2 billion, an increase of 24%. The negative balance of foreign trade in goods, according to the Belstat methodology, amounted to $5.0 billion; in 2016, the negative balance was $4.1 billion.

Let's try to outline the main trends and problems of Belarusian foreign trade based on the results of last year.

There was no diversification of exports

In 2017, Belarus supplied its products to the markets of 172 countries. Not bad. However, the bulk of production, about 78% in value terms, comes from only 7 countries. And this figure has been quite stable over the past five years.

The key market for Belarusian products is Russia. Over the past five years, only in 2015 the share of this country in Belarus’ exports fell below 40%. In other periods, Russia's share in foreign trade in goods is in the range of 42-46% of total exports.

The degree of export diversification is also evidenced by the fact that in 2017 Belarus supplied products worth more than $1 billion to only 6 countries. Deliveries to 55 countries were less than $1 million.

With such a high share of a number of countries in the export basket, risks arise for exports if the economic situation in the counterparty country changes.

Regional successes

Of the 172 countries to which deliveries were made in 2017, exports increased to 127 countries and decreased to 45 countries.

The main increase in exports was provided by Russia (+ 2.0 billion dollars) and Great Britain (+ 1.3 billion dollars). The total increase in exports for the remaining 125 countries, supplies to which increased, amounted to $2.9 billion.

Russia. Key items for which there was an increase in exports to Russia - trucks, agricultural machinery, dairy products, railway cars.

Separately, it is worth paying attention to the increase in supplies of potash fertilizers to the Russian market. In monetary terms, exports of this item increased 3.9 times and reached $63 million, while one of the largest producers potassium fertilizers in the world and the direct competitor of Belaruskali is the Uralkali company.

Great Britain. Exports to the UK depend on two factors:

1) the price of petroleum products, since, according to Belstat, this product item accounts for more than 90% of supplies from our country;

2) decisions of oil traders selling Belarusian oil products to redirect supplies between countries of a number of commodity items close to oil products.

At the same time, UK statistics submitted to the UN do not confirm the import of any goods from group 27 (oil, petroleum products, petroleum products) from Belarus. According to Comtrade UN, exports from Belarus of items such as bitumen mixtures (HS code 2715) or coal tar distillation products (HS code 2707) exceed or are comparable to the United Kingdom's annual import volumes from all countries.

We can talk about either the supply of other products by analogy with the solvent-diluent schemes in previous years, or the transit nature of the goods, or the processing and subsequent sale of these products to other contractors.

The most significant relative increase in Belarusian exports in 2017 was noted from Zimbabwe. Belarus put in this country goods worth $19 million, which is 86 times more than in 2016. The main reason for the growth in exports was the supply of BelAZ products to diamond mining enterprises in this country. In 2014, BelAZ trucks were already supplied to this country.

According to Belstat, products worth $143 million were supplied to Serbia in 2017, which is 3.5 times more than in 2016. The main increase was recorded in product item 271019, which includes: diesel fuel, as well as fuel oil and other petroleum products.

Physical volumes of supplies increased 193 times, while the price of supplied products decreased by half compared to 2016. It is worth noting that the average supply price in 2017 was $246 per ton and is the lowest in all export markets of Belarus. Serbian statistics do not reflect a similar increase in exports from Belarus in their data.

Local failures

The largest decrease in export supplies of Belarusian goods was noted in the direction of China. Supplies to this country amounted to $363 million, which is 23% less than in 2016.

The basis of exports to China are potash fertilizers, which account for more than 60% of all Belarusian exports to this country. In 2017, exports of potash fertilizers to China decreased by $45 million, in addition to which there was a decrease in exports of unpublished items, which include weapons and precious metals.

Canada is among the countries with a significant decline in exports. If in 2016 Belarus supplied $53.7 million worth of products to this country, then in 2017 exports decreased to $13.3 million. The main reason for this decrease is the anti-dumping investigation by Canadian authorities regarding BMZ products.

The main reason for the increase in exports

The main influence on export growth in 2017 was caused by price factors in foreign markets. At the same time, Belarus either does not influence world prices or its influence is significantly limited.

Compared to 2016, average export prices increased by 14.9%, and commodity volumes of supplied products increased by 8%.

An example of export growth that did not depend on Belarus was the situation on the oil and petroleum products market. Every year Belarus supplies 1.6 million tons of oil to Germany, and this volume has been stable for a number of years. Due to an increase in the average price for supplied oil by 28.3% to $374 per ton, Belarus received $135 million more from the export of these products in 2017 than in 2016.

Petroleum products showed the maximum increase in the value of exports among all commodity items - $1.3 billion, while the physical volume of petroleum products exported was 5.5% less than in 2016, which is due to protracted disputes over debts for Russian natural gas .

Among the items for which the growth of exports is the merit of Belarusian enterprises, it is worth highlighting two - potash fertilizers and trucks.

In 2017, BelAZ reached a share of 31% in the global market of heavy mining dump trucks. At the end of 2017, exports increased by 85% compared to 2016 and amounted to $760 million; 96% of all products were exported; deliveries were made to 45 countries. The key market for the products is Russia.

Potash fertilizers are one of the main export items of Belarus and the most diversified by market various countries. In 2017, deliveries were made to 109 countries. The most capacious market is Brazil - supplies in 2017 amounted to $435 million. The markets of India and China are also key from the point of view of price formation.

The breakthrough of the year in terms of increasing export supplies of potash fertilizers is the situation on the US market. In 2017, Belarusian potash fertilizers were supplied to this country for $134 million, which is 2.3 times more than in 2016. The United States is one of the five largest markets for the Belarusian Potash Company in terms of export volumes.

It is worth noting that in 2017, BPC supplied $74 million more to foreign markets (outside the EAEU countries) than its direct competitor Uralkali.

Failure of the Year - Passenger Cars

In 2017 exports passenger cars amounted to $107.3 million, which is 2.5 times less than in 2016. Three factors had a key impact: a decrease in Geely sales in Russia, the end of production of Chevrolet and Cadillac in Belarus, and the completion of schemes for the re-export of passenger cars from Russia to EU countries through Belarus.

In 2017, 2,234 Geely passenger cars were sold on the Russian market, which is half as much as in 2016. This led to an automatic decrease in the production of these cars in Belarus. In the summer of 2017, an experiment on large-scale assembly of a number of GM brands was completed; the main supply market for these vehicles is Russia.

The re-export scheme for the resale of passenger cars from the Russian Federation to the EU was associated with devaluation processes in Russia, which led to a significant decrease in foreign exchange prices for expensive car models, since cars were sold for Russian rubles, while in the EU countries these models did not decrease in dollar equivalent. After the devaluation factors ceased to Russian ruble supplies under this scheme have decreased significantly.

The growth of exports led to an increase in... imports

Statistics show that in relative terms, imports, like exports, increased in 2017 by the same amount in percentage terms. This is due to the high import intensity of the Belarusian economy.

The bulk of raw materials (energy resources, metals) are purchased in Russia. To produce petroleum products, Belarus purchased Russian oil in the amount of 18.1 million tons, which, with an increase in the price of oil from Russia by 34%, led to an increase in the value of imports by $1.3 billion.

In addition, Belarus doubled its purchases of petroleum products from Russia, some of which could be used for the production of bitumen mixtures. The increase in imports for this product item amounted to $582 million.

The growth in exports of trucks has led to increased purchases of metals, engines and spare parts in Russia and other countries. At the same time, the decrease in car exports was reflected in the form of a decrease in imports of car bodies from China and the USA.

The population also contributed to the growth of imports. The growth in citizens' incomes led to an increase in imports of consumer goods, which were purchased in 2017 by $7.7 billion, which is $1.1 billion more than in 2016, while the main increase in exports came from non-food products.

The share of sales of imported non-food products in the domestic consumer market at the end of 2017 was 56%.

Efforts to diversify exports have so far been ineffective; It is not possible to get rid of country dependence in export supplies, with the exception of certain items.

The headache for the country's economic authorities in 2018 will be to simultaneously address the challenges of growing exports, increasing wages and curbing consumer imports, which is an impossible task without a significant and new source of foreign exchange. One hope is for HTP...

In the modern world, the state of a state's foreign trade is an indicator of the level of development, an indicator of the country's recognition by the international community. A high share of foreign trade turnover in GDP means a high dependence of citizens' well-being on foreign trade. For Belarus, increasing export volumes has been and remains the most important priority of state policy, because the Republic of Belarus does not have sufficient quantities of its own natural resources and is dependent on the foreign market. The republic's industrial complex purchases raw materials abroad, after which it produces products and sells them. The well-being of the country and people depends entirely on efficient work export-oriented enterprises and competent foreign trade policy.

The Republic of Belarus maintains relations with more than 130 countries of the world. In the structure of foreign trade turnover, about 2/3 of the volume falls on the CIS countries, the share of Russia in which reaches almost 50%. Developed countries are in second place Western Europe. Next - European countries with economies in transition, developing countries in Asia, countries North America, South America, Africa, the Middle East, developed countries in Asia, the Caribbean, Australia and Oceania.

The commodity structure of Belarusian exports is dominated by machinery, equipment, vehicles, products chemical industry. The Republic of Belarus annually exports on average: tractors - 24 thousand units (97% of their production); trucks - 11.3 thousand units (74% of their production); televisions - 408 thousand units (65% of their production); refrigerators, freezers - 655 thousand units (76% of their production); chemical fibers and threads - on average 148 thousand tons per year (70% of their production); potash fertilizers - over 3 million tons (83% of their production); nitrogen fertilizers - 353 thousand tons (58% of their production). The exports of the Republic of Belarus also include “mineral products”. These are mainly petroleum products. Their share in the group exceeds 80%. About 7.5 million tons of petroleum products are exported annually.

Next come: ferrous and non-ferrous metals and products made from them; food products and agricultural raw materials (except textiles); textiles and textile products; wood and pulp and paper products; leather raw materials and products made from it; other.

The commodity structure of Belarusian imports is dominated by mineral products, machinery, equipment and vehicles, chemical products, ferrous and non-ferrous metals.

Every year the Republic of Belarus imports on average about: 2 million tons of ferrous and non-ferrous metals; 12 million tons of crude oil; 0.7 million tons of petroleum products; 17.5 billion cubic meters meters natural gas; 430 thousand tons of coal; 7.5 billion kWh of electricity; 104 thousand tons vegetable oil; 1300 thousand tons of grain crops.

One of the problems of the republic's economy is its high dependence on energy resources: oil, gas, coal, as well as rolled ferrous and non-ferrous metals.

Exports and imports of services make up a rather modest share of total trade turnover. Thus, the share of exports of services in total trade turnover fluctuates around 12%, and the share of their imports is about 7%. Among the export services, the main ones are: transport; construction; communication services; tourist; rent; financial. Among the imported services, tourism services stand out; transport; communication services; rent; construction; financial.

A negative indicator in the trade of the Republic of Belarus is the constant excess of imports over exports in recent years. Thus, the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports of the Republic of Belarus over the past 5 years amounted to 83%, which negatively affects its balance of payments.

The main directions of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus for the coming years are determined by the “Social and Economic Development Program of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015”. In accordance with this program, the main direction foreign economic activity the future will include the implementation of an effective unified industrial, foreign trade and macroeconomic policy, ensuring the dynamic development of the country's foreign economic complex and protecting the interests of the national market from the adverse effects of global conditions and foreign competition. Priority directions should become: activation state support modernization of export-oriented production facilities for the production of knowledge-intensive high-tech products; search alternative sources resources needed by the country; development of export infrastructure; expansion of the range and increase in exports of goods and services; rationalization of the import structure.

A qualitatively new level of economic functioning will make it possible to pursue a policy of foreign trade expansion through its selective application both to individual states and to groups of countries or unions.

An important factor in reducing the foreign trade deficit will be increasing the export of services as the least capital-intensive way to develop export potential. Based geographical location Belarus, expanding the volume of transport services will be the most realistic source of foreign exchange earnings.

The implementation of the set tasks will allow us to balance foreign trade turnover and achieve a positive balance of foreign trade.

During 1990-2016 Belarus' exports at current prices increased by $21.0 billion (3.4 times) to $29.7 billion; the change occurred by -$0.62 billion due to a drop in population by 0.74 million, as well as by $21.7 billion due to an increase in exports per capita by $2,285.1. The average annual growth in Belarusian exports is $0.81 billion or 4.9%. The average annual growth in Belarusian exports in constant prices was 1.2%. The world share decreased by 0.056%. The share in Europe decreased by 0.032%. The minimum export was in 1996 ($6.7 billion). The maximum export was in 2012 ($51.7 billion).

For the period 1990-2016. Exports per capita in Belarus increased by $2,285.1 (3.7 times) to $3,133.8. The average annual increase in exports per capita at current prices was $87.9 or 5.2%.

The change in Belarus' exports is described by a linear correlation-regression model: y=1.5x-3,062.2, where y is the estimated value of Belarus' exports, x is the year. Correlation coefficient = 0.841. Coefficient of determination = 0.707.

Exports of Belarus, 1990-1996 (decline)

During 1990-1996. Belarus' exports at current prices decreased by $1.9 billion (22.5%) to $6.7 billion; the change occurred by -$0.093 billion due to a drop in population by 0.11 million, as well as by -$1.9 billion due to a drop in exports per capita by $183.7. The average annual growth in Belarus' exports was -0.32 billion dollars or -4.2%. The average annual growth in Belarusian exports in constant prices was -14.5%. The world share decreased by 0.099%. The share in Europe decreased by 0.18%.

For the period 1990-1996. Exports per capita in Belarus increased by $183.7 (21.6%) to $665.0. The average annual growth in exports per capita at current prices is -$30.6 or -4.0%.

Exports of Belarus, 1996-2016 (growth)

For the period 1996-2016. Belarus' exports at current prices increased by $23.0 billion (4.4 times) to $29.7 billion; the change occurred by -0.42 billion dollars due to a drop in population by 0.63 million, as well as by 23.4 billion dollars due to an increase in exports per capita by 2,468.8 dollars. The average annual growth in Belarus' exports was $1.1 billion or 7.7%. The average annual growth in Belarusian exports in constant prices was 6.5%. The world share increased by 0.043%. The share in Europe increased by 0.14%.

During 1996-2016. Exports per capita in Belarus increased by $2,468.8 (4.7 times) to $3,133.8. The average annual growth in exports per capita at current prices is $123.4 or 8.1%.

Export of Belarus, 1990

Export of Belarus in 1990 amounted to 8.7 billion dollars, ranked 55th in the world and was at the level of exports of Hungary (9.2 billion dollars), exports of Cuba (8.7 billion dollars), exports of Kuwait (8.3 billion dollars). Belarus' exports were $0.44 billion higher than Belarus' imports, and the trade surplus was 2.2% of Belarus' GDP. The share of Belarus' exports to the world was 0.20%.

In 1990, it was $848.7, ranked 89th in the world and was at the level of exports per capita in the Maldives ($896.7), exports per capita in Yugoslavia ($890.9), exports per capita in Hungary ($886.7), exports per capita in Swaziland ($883.0), exports per capita in Namibia ($859.0), exports per capita in Chile ($832.9), exports per capita in Cuba ($818.6), exports per capita in Bulgaria ( 814.2 dollars), exports per capita in Slovakia ($794.0). Exports per capita in Belarus were higher than exports per capita in the world ($817.2) by $31.6.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and its neighbors in 1990. Belarus' exports were 2.2 times greater than Lithuania's exports ($4.0 billion), Latvia's exports ($3.8 billion) were 2.3 times, but were less than Russia's exports ($109.7 billion) by 92.1%, Ukraine's exports ($25.0 billion) by 65.3%, Poland's exports ($17.1 billion) by 49.3%. Exports per capita in Belarus were greater than exports per capita in Russia ($743.1) by 14.2%, exports per capita in Ukraine ($485.3) by 74.9%, exports per capita in Poland ($450.6) by 88.4 %, but was less than exports per capita in Latvia ($1,429.2) by 40.6%, exports per capita in Lithuania ($1,074.6) by 21%.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and leaders in 1990. Belarus' exports were less than US exports ($551.9 billion) by 98.4%, German exports ($404.1 billion) by 97.9%, Japanese exports ($323.1 billion) by 97.3%, French exports ($265.4 billion). $) by 96.7%, UK exports ($247.1 billion) by 96.5%. Exports per capita in Belarus were less than exports per capita in Germany ($5,108.2) by 83.4%, exports per capita in France ($4,534.7) by 81.3%, exports per capita in the UK ($4,322.0) ) by 80.4%, exports per capita in Japan ($2,594.9) by 67.3%, exports per capita in the USA ($2,185.5) by 61.2%.

Export potential of Belarus in 1990. With exports per capita at the same level as Germany's exports per capita ($5,108.2), Belarus' exports would be $52.2 billion, which is 6.0 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as exports per capita in Europe ($3,064.2), Belarus' exports would be $31.3 billion, which is 3.6 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as the per capita exports of Latvia ($1,429.2), its best neighbor, Belarus' exports would be $14.6 billion, which is 68.4% more than the actual level.

Export of Belarus, 1996

Export of Belarus in 1996 it was equal to 6.7 billion dollars, ranked 68th in the world and was at the level of exports of Cyprus (7.0 billion dollars). Belarus' exports were less than Belarus' imports by $0.59 billion, and the trade deficit was 3.9% of Belarus' GDP. The share of Belarus' exports to the world was 0.100%.

Export per capita in Belarus in 1996 amounted to $665.0, ranked 107th in the world and was at the level of exports per capita in the Marshall Islands ($705.9), exports per capita in Russia ($690.4), exports per capita in the Solomon Islands ($648.7) . Exports per capita in Belarus were less than exports per capita in the world ($1,154.2) by $489.2.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and its neighbors in 1996. Belarus' exports were greater than Lithuania's exports ($3.5 billion) by 91.1%, Latvia's exports ($2.4 billion) by 2.8 times, but were less than Russia's exports ($102.2 billion) by 93.4%, Polish exports ($35.3 billion) by 81%, Ukrainian exports ($20.3 billion) by 67%. Exports per capita in Belarus were greater than exports per capita in Ukraine ($402.0) by 65.4%, but were less than exports per capita in Lithuania ($976.0) by 31.9%, exports per capita in Latvia ( 974.0 dollars) by 31.7%, exports per capita in Poland (917.8 dollars) by 27.5%, exports per capita in Russia (690.4 dollars) by 3.7%.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and leaders in 1996. Belarus' exports were less than US exports ($867.6 billion) by 99.2%, German exports ($573.6 billion) by 98.8%, Japanese exports ($458.2 billion) by 98.5%, French exports ($368.4 billion). $) by 98.2%, UK exports ($362.6 billion) by 98.1%. Exports per capita in Belarus were less than exports per capita in Germany ($7,043.9) by 90.6%, exports per capita in the UK ($6,234.8) by 89.3%, exports per capita in France ($6,116.4) ) by 89.1%, exports per capita in Japan ($3,617.7) by 81.6%, exports per capita in the USA ($3,227.6) by 79.4%.

Export potential of Belarus in 1996. With exports per capita at the same level as Germany's exports per capita ($7,043.9), Belarus' exports would be $71.2 billion, which is 10.6 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as exports per capita in Europe ($4,267.4), Belarus' exports would be $43.1 billion, which is 6.4 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as exports per capita in the world ($1,154.2), Belarus' exports would be $11.7 billion, which is 73.6% more than the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as Lithuania's per capita exports ($976.0), its best neighbor, Belarus' exports would be $9.9 billion, 46.8% more than the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as exports per capita in Eastern Europe($770.1), Belarus' exports would be $7.8 billion, which is 15.8% more than the actual level.

Export of Belarus, 2016

Export of Belarus in 2016 it was equal to $29.7 billion, ranked 66th in the world and was at the level of Oman’s exports ($30.8 billion), Angola’s exports ($28.8 billion), Egypt’s exports ($28.0 billion). Belarus' exports were less than Belarus' imports by $0.044 billion, and the trade deficit was equal to 0.093% of Belarus' GDP. The share of Belarus' exports to the world was 0.14%.

Export per capita in Belarus in 2016 amounted to $3,133.8, ranked 87th in the world and was at the level of exports per capita in Uruguay ($3,250.1), exports per capita in Mexico ($3,134.6), exports per capita in Suriname (2,970.2 dollars). Exports per capita in Belarus were higher than exports per capita in the world ($2,784.3) by $349.5.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and its neighbors in 2016. Belarus' exports were greater than Latvia's exports ($16.6 billion) by 79.5%, but were less than Russia's exports ($330.7 billion) by 91%, Poland's exports ($246.4 billion) by 87.9%, Ukrainian exports ($46.0 billion) by 35.4%, Lithuanian exports ($31.8 billion) by 6.7%. Exports per capita in Belarus were greater than exports per capita in Russia ($2,297.4) by 36.4%, exports per capita in Ukraine ($1,034.6) by 3.0 times, but were less than exports per capita in Lithuania ($10,949.6) by 71.4%, exports per capita in Latvia ($8,401.3) by 62.7%, exports per capita in Poland ($6,444.7) by 51.4%.

Comparison of exports of Belarus and leaders in 2016. Belarus' exports were less than US exports ($2,214.6 billion) by 98.7%, Chinese exports ($2,197.9 billion) by 98.6%, German exports ($1,603.9 billion) by 98.1%, Japanese exports ($797.5 billion) by 96.3%, UK exports ($739.2 billion) by 96%. Exports per capita in Belarus were more than exports per capita in China ($1,566.0) by 2.0 times, but were less than exports per capita in Germany ($19,580.4) by 84%, exports per capita in Great Britain ($11,236.0) by 72.1%, exports per capita to the USA ($6,873.7) by 54.4%, exports per capita to Japan ($6,243.0) by 49.8%.

Export potential of Belarus in 2016. With exports per capita at the same level as Germany's exports per capita ($19,580.4), Belarus' exports would be $185.6 billion, which is 6.2 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as exports per capita in Europe ($11,110.9), Belarus' exports would be $105.3 billion, which is 3.5 times the actual level. With exports per capita at the same level as Lithuania's per capita exports ($10,949.6), its best neighbor, Belarus' exports would be $103.8 billion, 3.5 times the actual level. With per capita exports at the same level as Eastern Europe's per capita exports ($3,823.9), Belarus' exports would be $36.2 billion, which is 22% more than the actual level.

Belarus has carried out limited structural reforms since 1995, when President Lukashenko took the country down the path of "market socialism." Under these policies, Lukashenko reimposed administrative controls on prices and exchange rates and expanded the state's rights to intervene in the management of private enterprises. Since 2005, the government has renationalized many private companies. In addition, the companies were subject to pressure from the government and local authorities authorities, including changes to regulations, numerous strict inspections, retroactive application of new regulations and laws, arrests of opposition businessmen and company owners.

In the country for a long time There is government control over economic transactions and the entry of companies into the market, both local and foreign. Government statistics show GDP growth was above 10% in 2008, even despite tight economic regulation, high inflation and unemployment. However, the global economic crisis caused a sharp slowdown in GDP growth to 0.2% in 2009. The sharply fallen demand for Belarusian exports has hit industrial enterprises hard. To compensate for the negative balance of payments, the government of the republic turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with a request for a loan. In accordance with the terms of the IMF, in 2009 Belarus depreciated the ruble by more than 40% and slightly changed tax policy and the principles of monetary policy.

On January 1, 2010, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus began to unite into Customs Union based on common trade documents and customs code. At the end of January 2010, Russia and Belarus renegotiated the 2007 oil supply agreement. The new conditions caused an increase in prices for petroleum products in the country and increased the current account deficit of Belarus.

In December 2010, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to form a Single Economic Space, and Russia abolished duties on oil supplied to Belarus.

History of the economy of Belarus

From 1957 to 1962, the volume of military production in the Belarusian SSR increased 12 times. The average grain yield in Belarus in 1960 was 8.7 centners per hectare.

The leading industries of the Byelorussian SSR were mechanical engineering and metalworking, light industry and food processing. In 1986, there were 913 state farms and 1,675 collective farms in Belarus. Agricultural land amounted to 9.5 million hectares. The main mode of transport was railway. In 1986, the operational length of railways was 5.54 thousand km, roads - 44.4 thousand km.

In Belarus, after gaining independence, there was no large-scale privatization of large industrial enterprises. When they were corporatized, the shares mainly remained in the ownership of the state. State enterprises continue to play a dominant role - they account for at least 75% of GDP. The largest - production associations Belneftekhim (combines the Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries, Belaruskali, Grodno Azot, providing up to half of Belarus' export earnings), Belenergo, Beltransgaz. Structure industrial production was largely preserved.

Due to the large share of Belarusian exports in Belarus’ GDP, one of the main factors in the growth of the country’s economy is the increase in exports. The significant economic growth of the republic in 2004-2006 was due to the supply of energy resources to the country from Russia at domestic prices of the Russian Federation and their resale at world prices, special relations with Russia and the global market situation.

After the abolition of the previous procedure for the sale of oil and gas from Russia and an increase in prices for them, benefits were canceled in Belarus for the majority of previously preferential categories (disabled people, pensioners, victims of Chernobyl) of the population, with the exception of participants in the Great Patriotic War and those called up for military service.

After a decrease in world oil prices by 1.5 times, the government of Belarus refused to reduce fuel prices in Belarus. The subsequent (January 2, 2009) one-time devaluation of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate against the US dollar by 20% (while maintaining the previous prices for petroleum products in Belarusian rubles) slightly reduced prices for petroleum products within Belarus (in dollar terms).

By 2005, a five-year Socio-Economic Development Program for 2006-2010 was developed. In accordance with it, GDP in 2006-2010 was planned at 146-155% of the previous five-year period (growth was planned at 8-9% per year). The draft program included an increase in industrial production volumes over 5 years by 43-51% (7.5-8.6% per year). Real cash income of the population should have increased by 46-56% (8.3-9.3% per year), real wages - by 52-58% (8.7-9.6% per year).

There is a point of view that social and economic stability in the country in the 2000s was ensured by access to the Russian market and obtaining energy resources at prices below world prices. At the beginning of March 2010, according to the statement of the ex-chairman of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Stanislav Bogdankevich, the Belarusian economy is a raw material economy: based on petroleum products, re-export of crude oil and export of potassium salts.

On March 18, 2010, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Philippe Le Houerou said that in the last 10 years there have been remarkable successes in the development of the Belarusian economy, in particular, economic growth has been closer to Chinese than to European, and the poverty level has decreased significantly. He noted that over the past 15 years, World Bank projects in Belarus have worked very well, and this “ good sign high level development government controlled" Also, the vice-president of the World Bank was “very positively impressed” by the policy of the Belarusian authorities to increase energy efficiency.

However, in 2011, a financial crisis broke out in the country, as a result of which the Belarusian ruble depreciated by more than half in relation to other world currencies. The standard of living of the population fell sharply. As a result of the devaluation on May 23-24, 2011, wages in dollar terms fell from $500 to $312 by May 2011 and to $218 by September.

On April 11, 2011, Alexander Lukashenko signed the Program for the Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015. Main macroeconomic points of the program:

• increase in GDP by 62-68% over five years;
• growth in industrial production and products Agriculture about one and a half times;
• increase in production of services by 1.8-1.9 times;
• growth of investments in fixed capital by 1.9-1.97 times;
• eliminating the trade deficit by 2014 and achieving a positive balance of trade in goods and services in 2015.

It is assumed that the points of the program “will bring the quality of life of the population closer to the European level and will ensure an increase in real disposable income of the population by 1.7-1.76 times over five years.”

Economic policy of Belarus

According to Doctor of Economic Sciences Vladislav Inozemtsev, the peculiarity of the Belarusian economy lies in the attempt to combine elements of the planned system with the market mechanism, an attempt to preserve the industrial base based on state property with the suppression of private initiative and government intervention in economic activity. The result is low efficiency. The Belarusian economy relies on the processing and re-export of Russian raw materials, and the legitimacy of the regime is ensured by the model of the welfare state.

The structure of the Belarusian economy has long been dominated by the industrial sector, on which the state has relied on to achieve the established rates of economic growth. This has led to a low share of private enterprises in the formation of GDP - about 30% versus 60-80% in neighboring countries. In October 2011, Minister of Economy Nikolai Snopkov admitted the fallacy of such a policy and promised that in the future there would be a reorientation towards the private sector as a generally recognized basis for stable economic development.

Privatization policy comes down to one-time sales of state property (targeted, selective privatization). On May 12, 2010, at a press conference in Minsk, the director of the state property fund State Committee on the property of Belarus Natalya Zhernosek reported that Belarus is working on the creation of a privatization agency. By July 1, 2010, the final version of the bill “On objects owned by the state” should be adopted. According to the Chairman of the State Property Committee Georgy Kuznetsov, privatization through the sale of shares in preferential terms will be cancelled.

In 2011, money began to flow into the country under a three-billion loan, the condition of which was to carry out privatization in the amount of $7.5 billion over three years. It was announced that shares of a number of enterprises were being put up for sale. Among them are Beltransgaz, MTS JLLC, Grodno Azot, Mozyr Oil Refinery, Novopolotsk Oil Refinery, Minsk Automobile Plant, Integral, BelAZ, Belaruskali (announced estimate - $30 billion), Barkhim, Baranovichi plant reinforced concrete structures, Brest Electromechanical Plant, Belsantekhmontazh-2, Stroytrest No. 8, JSC Avtomagistral, JSC Belgazstroy, JSC Medplast, JSC Confa.

On June 1, 2009, it began to operate in the republic State standard STB ISO 9001-2009 “Quality management systems. Requirements" (adopted in connection with the establishment International organization on ISO standardization of the new version of the international standard ISO 9001:2008).

Macroeconomic indicators of Belarus

At the end of 2012, Belarus' GDP reached Br527.4 trillion, which is 1.5% more than the 2011 level. This was reported by the National Statistical Committee of Belarus. Industrial production over the year increased by 5.7% to Br621.9 trillion. The share of innovative products in the total volume shipped was 17.9%, with an annual forecast of 13.5-14.5%. Investments in fixed capital in 2012 amounted to Br151.9 trillion, or 86.2% of the previous year. Gross product per capita (at purchasing power parity) in 2012 was $15,600.

In Belarus, consumer prices for goods and services in December 2012 increased by 1.4% compared to November 2012, and by 21.8% compared to December 2011, reports the National Statistics Committee. Food products prices rose by 1.8% in December 2012, and by 25.1% over the year. Prices for non-food products increased by 0.1% in December 2012, and by 10.3% over the year. Prices and tariffs for paid services in December 2012 compared to November 2012 increased by 2.6%, compared to December 2011 - by 36.1%.

From 2000 to 2006, the rate of inflation in Belarus decreased. In 2007-2008 there was an increase, in 2009 there was a decrease again, and in 2011 there was a sharp increase. Inflation in Belarus by year since 2000: 2000 - 107.5%, 2001 - 46.1%, 2002 - 34.8%, 2003 - 25.4%, 2004 - 14.4%, 2005 - 8.0 %, 2006 - 6.6%, 2007 - 12.1%, 2008 - 13.3%, 2009 - 10.1%, 2010 - 9.9%, 2011 - 53.3% per year.

Industry of Belarus

A wide range of products is produced in Belarus engineering products. These are trucks (MAZ, BelAZ), buses, trolleybuses, tractors, televisions, refrigerators, metal cutting machines and much more. The Belarusian Automobile Plant is located in Belarus - the only one in the CIS countries and one of the world's largest manufacturers of quarry equipment. The first ones went on sale in April 2011 Cell phones Belarusian production.

The metallurgical industry of Belarus includes four factories: Republican Unitary Enterprise "Belarusian Metallurgical Plant", Republican Unitary Enterprise "Rechitsa Metallurgical Plant", OJSC "Mogilev Metallurgical Plant" and Republican Unitary Enterprise "Gomel Foundry "Tsentrolit"". In addition, the largest factories have more than one hundred foundries and sites. More than 40 thousand workers are employed in the country's metallurgical and foundry production, of which about 3 thousand are engineers.

Scientific support and training is carried out at six departments of universities, the Institute of Metal Technology of the National Academy of Sciences, and the BelNIILit Institute. Since 1972, the Institute of Powder Metallurgy has been operating, now part of the Belarusian State Research and Production Concern of Powder Metallurgy.

The industry program for the modernization of foundry production at the base enterprises of the Ministry of Industry of Belarus until 2010 includes more than 50 projects; large-scale reconstruction of the foundries of RUE Minsk Tractor Plant, RUE Minsk Automobile Plant, and OJSC Minsk Heating Equipment Plant has already begun. According to the results of the first half of 2006, Belarus took fourth place among the CIS countries in terms of production of metallurgical products.

Alcohol products. January-March 2011 - the sales figure for vodka (compared to the same period in 2010) increased by 1.9%: 2 million 511.4 thousand dal of vodka were sold, its share in the total volume of alcohol consumption was 43.5%.

Agriculture of Belarus

In 2005-2009, more than 21 trillion Belarusian rubles were allocated to support the agro-industrial complex (as part of the implementation of the rural revival and development program). rubles

Belarusian experts consider the expansion of the network of large regional agro-industrial holdings, gradually developing into national vertically integrated associations, as one of the most important areas for the development of the domestic agro-industrial complex and processing industry. By the fall of 2010, Belarus took second place in the world in terms of triticale area.

Transport of Belarus

The length of the railways is 5512 km, including 1640 km double-track, 897 km electrified. The main operator of railway transportation in Belarus is the Belarusian Railway, which accounts for 3/4 of freight and more than half of passenger traffic.

Length highways common use- 83 thousand kilometers. Number of runways - 67, including 36 hard surface. The main air carrier is the state company Belavia.

Foreign trade of Belarus

The Belarusian economy has a high degree of openness - the share of exports of goods and services in GDP exceeds 60%. Most of Belarus' trade turnover is with CIS countries. Belarus has largely retained economic ties with Russian enterprises and significant industrial exports to Russia. Russia, in particular, receives 60-70% of all exports of vehicles, machinery and equipment from Belarus.

Belarus exports mineral fuel, oil and oil products, ferrous metals, trucks (MAZ, BelAZ), tractors (Belarus), road construction and municipal equipment (Amkodor), televisions (Horizon, Vityaz), refrigerators (Atlant), chemical fibers and threads (Polimir), potash fertilizers (Belaruskali), textile and light industry products. The basis of Belarusian exports to the EU countries are energy products such as oil, petroleum products, liquefied gas. Fertilizers, ferrous metals and timber are also exported to the EU.

Belarus imports mineral fuel, chemical industry products, ferrous metals, plastics and products made from them, vehicles, machinery and equipment. Most Belarus purchases oil, natural gas and petroleum products from Russia.

In 2004, the largest trading partners of Belarus were Russia and the EU countries. Thus, in terms of exports, trade turnover was with: Russia - 47%, Great Britain - 8.3%, Holland - 6.7%, Poland - 5.3%; by import: Russia - 68.2%, Germany - 6.6%, Ukraine - 3.3%.

In 2005, trade turnover increased by 8%, including exports by 16% and imports by 1.3%. According to customs authorities Belarus, having imported 19.3 million tons of oil from Russia for $4.2 billion in 2005, Belarus exported 13.5 million tons of petroleum products for $4.9 billion.

In 2006, trade turnover increased by 28.7% compared to 2005 and amounted to $42 billion. Including exports increased by 23.5% to $19.7 billion, imports increased by 33.6% to $22.3 billion Foreign trade balance turned out to be negative in the amount of $2.5 billion. Among external trading partners, trade turnover with the CIS countries amounted to $23.1 billion (+27%). Exports - $8.6 billion (+22%), imports - $14.4 billion (+30.1%). The balance was negative in the amount of $5.8 billion. Including trade turnover with Russia amounted to $19.9 billion (+25.9%). Exports - $6.8 billion (+19.8%), imports - $13 billion (+29.3%). The balance was negative in the amount of $6.2 billion.

Trade turnover with countries outside the CIS amounted to $18.9 billion (+30.8%). Exports - $11.1 billion (+24.7%), imports - $7.8 billion (+40.6%). The balance was positive in the amount of $3.2 billion.

Including trade turnover with EU countries amounted to $13.9 billion (+31.5%). Exports - $8.9 billion (+27.5%), imports - $4.9 billion (+39.5%). The balance was positive in the amount of $3.9 billion.

Export of petroleum products produced from Russian oil at Belarusian oil refineries is an important component of the country's economy, accounting for 16.4% of GDP. In January - May 2006, the value of exports of petroleum products increased by 58.2% compared to the same period in 2005 and reached $3.2 billion (7.4 million tons).

In 2008, exports from Belarus amounted to $33 billion. The main buyers are Russia 32.2%, the Netherlands 16.9%, Ukraine 8.5%. Imports to Belarus amounted to $39.2 billion in 2008. The main suppliers are Russia 59.8%, Germany 7.1%, Ukraine 5.4%. Exports increased by 35.5% compared to 2007 and amounted to 32 billion 902.1 million dollars, imports increased by 37.6% (39 billion 482.9 million). The volume of foreign trade amounted to 72 billion 385 million dollars (36.7% more).

The trade balance with the CIS countries was negative in the amount of 11 billion 647.4 million dollars (in 2007 - minus 7 billion 794.3 million). Exports increased by 28.4% and reached 14 billion 406.3 million dollars, imports - by 37% (26 billion 53.7 million). The volume of foreign trade over the past year amounted to 40 billion 460 million dollars (33.8% more), including foreign trade turnover with Russia increased by 31.1% to 34 billion 188.9 million dollars. Exports increased by 19.2% (10 billion 585.1 million), imports - by 37.2% (23 billion 603.8 million). The trade balance with the Russian Federation was negative in the amount of 13 billion 18.7 million dollars (for 2007 - minus 8 billion 326.3 million dollars).

Foreign trade turnover with Ukraine increased by 63.3% and reached 4 billion 904.8 million dollars. Exports increased by 89.8% (up to 2 billion 789.7 million), imports - by 37.9% (up to 2 billion 115.1 million). The trade balance with this country was positive at $674.6 million (in 2007 - minus $64.5 million).

Foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries increased by 40.4% and amounted to 31 billion 925 million dollars. Exports increased by 41.7% to 18 billion 495.8 million, imports - by 38.8% (13 billion 429.2 million). The balance was positive in the amount of 5 billion 66.6 million dollars, including the balance with Germany - negative in the amount of 1 billion 979.9 million dollars. Exports increased by 11.1% to $812.4 million, imports by 28.6% (2 billion 792.3 million). Foreign trade turnover increased by 24.2% to $3 billion 604.7 million.

Foreign trade turnover of goods in Belarus in 2010 reached 60.094 billion dollars and increased by 20.5% compared to 2009. This was reported by the National Statistics Committee. Exports amounted to 25.226 billion dollars (118.4%), imports - 34.868 billion dollars (122%). The balance of foreign trade in goods is negative and amounts to $9.642 billion.

Trade turnover between Belarus and the countries of the Customs Union increased by 20.6% in 2010 and reached $28.742 billion. The volume of exports of goods from Belarus to the countries of the Customs Union - Russia and Kazakhstan - increased by 46.2% and amounted to $10.280 billion. Imports from these countries reached $18.462 billion, which was 109.9% compared to the previous year.

Trade turnover between Belarus and Russia amounted to 27.874 billion dollars (118.9%). At the same time, exports of Belarusian goods to Russia increased by 46.1% to more than $9.816 billion, imports by 8% to more than $18 billion. In 2010, trade turnover with Kazakhstan reached $867.2 million, more than doubling compared to 2009 (223.4%). Including exports to Kazakhstan increased by 47.9% to $463.5 million, imports - by 5.4 times to $403.7 million.

Trade turnover between Belarus and the CIS countries in 2010 increased by 23.5% to $34 billion. At the same time, exports amounted to 13.499 billion dollars (an increase of 44.9%), imports - more than 20.5 billion dollars (an increase of 12.5%). Belarus' trade turnover with countries outside the CIS in 2010 reached more than $26 billion (116.8%). At the same time, exports amounted to 11.727 billion dollars (97.8%), imports - 14.358 billion dollars (138.8%).

In July 2010, the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia began to operate. According to some estimates, the creation of the Customs Union will stimulate economic development and could provide an additional 15% to the GDP of the participating countries by 2015.

Joining the Customs Union and Russia's provision of 6.3 million tons of duty-free oil for domestic consumption should have led to a reduction in the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel by 30%. However domestic prices for gasoline and fuel increased, incomes of the population and enterprises in Lately frozen or even fell.