Classification of the main types of business risks. Financial, production and other risks of the enterprise

In a broad sense, project implementation risks are conditions or events that affect the outcome of the project. Such influences can be accompanied by a positive, “zero” or negative effect. In a narrower sense, project risks are defined as potentially adverse impacts that entail losses and damages, since the risk-related nature of uncertainty is considered as an element of unpredictable deterioration of the situation due to internal and external circumstances.

Possible project risks and responses to them depend on the parameters of probability, risk magnitude, significance of consequences, risk tolerance, and the availability of reserves (including management ones) in case of risk situations.

Project risks: dictionary of concepts

Project risks exhibit the effect of accumulating the probabilities of events affecting the project. Moreover, the event itself can bring both benefit and damage, have varying degrees of uncertainty, different causes and consequences (changes in labor costs, financial costs, failures in the action plan).

Uncertainty here is the state of objective factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the project, while the degree of influence does not allow us to accurately predict the consequences of the decisions of project participants due to the inaccuracy or unavailability of complete information. Therefore, it is possible to manage only that group of risks for which there is access to significant information.

Risk probability is the possibility of a threat occurring in the range from 0 to 100 percent. Extreme values ​​are not considered risks, since the zero limit means the impossibility of the event occurring, and 100% guarantee must be provided for in the project as a fact. An event that is very high degree probability (for example, a guaranteed price increase by the supplier) is often completely excluded from consideration in the context of the topic of project risks. Probability is determined by two types of methods:

• objective, when the probability of a result obtained under similar conditions is calculated with statistical certainty based on the frequency of the event;
• subjective, based on the assumption of a possible continuation or outcome, and the assumption itself is based on the understanding of the logic of the process by the decision-maker and his experience, which the subject represents in numerical terms.

If there is insufficient information about potential costs (for example, after the launch of the project there was an unexpected change in tax legislation), then a special reserve is set aside for such unknown risks, and management procedures are not implemented. The contingency reserve can be either an additional amount or additional time and should be included in the project cost baseline.

If changes can be judged in advance, then a response plan is built aimed at minimizing risks. As a rule, the boundaries of risk management partially cover the information field for which there is no information (complete uncertainty), and partially cover the field with complete certainty, for which there is comprehensive information. Within these boundaries are known and unknown factors that make up general and specific uncertainty.

Since in projects there is a decision maker, the concept of risk can be associated with his activities. Probability here is the magnitude of the possibility that, as a result of making a decision, an undesirable outcome associated with losses will follow.

In addition to internal factors, the project is also affected by external factors

with different uncertainties and different degrees of tolerance to them among project participants and investors. Tolerance here is defined as the degree of readiness for the possible implementation of threats. Often – especially in the case of low probability and low risk – project participants consciously accept the risk, shifting their efforts not to preventing the threat, but to eliminating its consequences. Acceptance refers to one of four basic types of response to a potential threat.

The degree of risk tolerance depends on the volume and reliability of investments, the planned level of profitability, the familiarity of the project to the company, the complexity of the business model and other factors. The more complex the business model, the more thoroughly and in detail the risks should be assessed. At the same time, the typicality of the project for the company is considered a higher priority factor when assessing riskiness than the volume of invested funds. For example, construction retail store, included in a retail network, can become a high-budget project, however, if the implementation uses already proven and well-known technologies, then the risks will be lower than when implementing a less expensive but new project. If, for example, the same company reorients or expands its activities and decides to open a catering establishment, it will face a different level of risk, since everything will be unfamiliar to retailers: from the principle of choosing a location and forming a competitive price to the development of a recognizable concept and a new supply chain .

As we move from solving one project problem to solving another problem, the types of risks may change. As a result, risk analysis investment project It is advisable to carry out this process several times during the project, transforming the risk map as necessary. However, at the initial stages of project implementation (during the formation of the concept and design), this has special meaning, since early detection and preparedness significantly reduces losses.

The sequence of activities for assessing and managing project risks is represented by a management concept that includes the following elements:

1. Risk management planning.
2. Risk identification.
3. Qualitative analysis.
4. Quantitative assessment.
5. Response planning.
6. Tracking and controlling changes to the risk map.

Risk management involves first making project participants aware of the uncertainties in the project environment, then expanding capabilities that increase the likelihood of achieving the planned result, and finally finalizing project plans that include measures to reduce risks.

Stages of risk management

Within the popular project management concept of the PMBoK framework from PMI, there are 6 progressive and interconnected stages of risk management:

Risk management planning

During planning, the strategy for organizing the process is determined, and the rules of interaction are determined. Planning occurs by:

• creating a management environment by popularizing the process for project participants and harmonizing their relationships,
• engaging ready-made templates, standards, schemes, management formats familiar in a given company,
• creating a description of the content of the project.

The main process-tool in this case becomes a meeting, in which members of the project team, managers, executives, and persons responsible for the use of investments (if the risks of the investment project are planned) take part. The result of planning is a document in which, in addition to general provisions, must be written:

• methods and tools for risk management by stages of implementation,
• distribution of roles for project participants in the event of a risk situation and threat realization,
• acceptable ranges and threshold values ​​of risks,
• principles of recalculation if the risks of investment projects change during the course of the project,
• rules and formats for reporting and documentation,
• monitoring formats.

In general, the output should be an algorithm of actions that everyone can understand in the event of threats arising and realized.

Identification

Risk identification occurs regularly, since threats may undergo qualitative and quantitative changes during the course of the project. Identification is more effective when there is a detailed classification of the risks relevant to a typical project. If a company is working on new, unfamiliar projects, the classification should be as broad as possible so that no risks are missed.

Since there is no comprehensive classification of risks, more convenient formats for a specific project are most often used. So, classifications based on the criterion of risk controllability are considered universal and popular, which describe the level of control with the division of threats into external and internal. External unpredictable and uncontrollable risks, for example, include political risks, natural disasters, sabotage. The external ones are partially controllable and predictable - social, marketing, currency and inflation. Internally controlled - risks associated with technology and design, etc. But in general, it is more advisable to create relevant groups for a specific project, especially if it is atypical for the company.

To do this, all possible expert opinions are involved, the widest possible range of information is used, all known methods are used, starting with brainstorming and Crawford cards and ending with the method of analogy and the use of diagrams. The result should be an exhaustive hierarchical list of risks with their two-part description “source of threat + threatening event”, for example: “risk of failure of financing due to cessation of investment.”

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment

More labor-intensive, but also more accurate – quantitative analysis. It shows the percentage probability of risks and their consequences occurring in numerical values. Thanks to it, you can trace how the profitability of the project will change with a quantitative change in one or another parameter from the list of risks critical for a given project. When substituting algorithms into the current project model, thanks to quantitative analysis, it is easy to understand at what values ​​the project will become unprofitable and which risk factors influence this more than others.

Sometimes a qualitative analysis done with the involvement of experts and making an informed value judgment is enough to draw up a map of the probability of risk and the degree of its impact on the project. At the output, after the analytical part, a ranked list should be formed:

• with prioritized risks,
• with positions that require clarification,
• with an assessment of the riskiness of the entire project.

This result can be clearly presented in the form of a risk matrix, which includes not only threats, but also favorable opportunities created by the uncertainty of the situation.

The more complex the project, the more carefully the assessment needs to be carried out, and then quantitative analysis methods cannot be avoided. Among the most popular methods are:

• probabilistic analysis based on the principles of probability theory and statistical data from previous periods,
• sensitivity analysis based on changes in results due to changes in the values ​​of specified variables,
• scenario analysis with the development of project development options in comparison,
• simulation modeling (“Monte Carlo”), which involves repeated experiments with the project model, etc.

Some of them (for example, the simulation method) require the use of special software, since it is necessary to process a large array of random numbers simulating the “unpredictable” state of the market.

Planning your response

When choosing response methods, we focus on 4 main types of strategy:

• Evasion (avoidance) – elimination of sources of risk.
• Insurance (transfer) – attracting a third party to take on the risks.
• Minimization (reduction) – reducing the likelihood of a threat occurring.
• Acceptance - the passive form implies conscious readiness for a threat, and the active form - agreement on a plan of action in the event of the occurrence of unforeseen but accepted circumstances.

Each method can be used for its own type of risk as optimal.

Monitoring and Control

Control and management activities must be carried out throughout the project. The occurrence of an unforeseen risk event in the final stages threatens greater losses than in the initial stages.

During monitoring, the values ​​of already identified risks are revised and sometimes new ones are identified. In addition, deviations and trends are analyzed, as well as the state of reserves necessary to cover remaining risks.

Identification of economic risks in enterprises: traditional and innovative projects

All risks are grouped by type, but for each project manager or department head system analysis and risk management, there are groups of the most serious threats, formed on the basis of practice and previous experience in the context of activity. For example, production managers most often identify risks associated with:

• with accidents and accidents,
• with property issues that harm the fixed assets of the enterprise,
• with pricing questions finished products and prices for raw materials,
• with market transformations (changes in stock indices, exchange rates and securities prices),
• with the actions of fraudsters and theft in production.

The manager of a trading enterprise usually adds to the list of basic ones:

• logistics risks,
• mediation problems,
• risks associated with the actions of unscrupulous suppliers,
• dangers of receivables from wholesalers (primarily when payment is carried out with deferred payment).

On competitive and organized enterprise, which has already repeatedly implemented projects that are typical for itself, a list of characteristic risks and factors provoking them is very quickly formed. The value of such lists is that not only the content side of the issue has been worked out, but also the form: the description of the risk receives a clear, unambiguous formulation, honed by previous projects, which simplifies the consideration and response format. In addition to the lists, it is advisable to create a visual table with coordinates according to the parameters of the probability of risk and possible damage. In such a table it is more convenient to track the dynamics of risk changes.

Traditional projects

Since the risks are similar for traditional projects under certain conditions, they can be standardized and grouped together.

No. 1. Group of risks related to product consumption

Among the reasons that create risks from this group are:

1. The presence of a monopolist consumer in the market, resulting in:
   • unable to influence prices
   • financial costs for maintaining reserves in warehouses increase,
   • unfavorable clauses are introduced in contracts (for example, long deferred payments).
2. Market capacity, which turns out to be less than the total capacity of enterprises in the industry. This, for example, happened in the post-perestroika period, when the construction of panel-type houses sharply decreased, and the demand for reinforced concrete slabs became less than the capabilities of the enterprises producing them.
3. Loss of relevance of products. An example of the realization of this risk was the loss of relevance of one electronic medium after another (first floppy disks, then CDs, etc.).
4. Changes in production technology. This threat is relevant in the B2B market, when, when changing production technology, it is necessary to change the entire pattern of interaction between enterprises that were previously in the production chain.

The risks of this group can be minimized by monitoring the market, changing the sales system and by developing new niches.

No. 2. Group of risks associated with market competition

Risks from the second group are classified as follows:

1. Situations that threaten the financial situation due to a significant share of gray imports on the market, which results in:
   • price dumping by sellers who smuggle goods,
   • a decrease in consumer loyalty, which is provoked by the low quality of counterfeit products, which casts a shadow on all products of this kind.
2. Large secondary market creating:
   • reputational risks as a result of an attempt to pass off a used item as new,
   • the threat of underutilization of production (an example is the secondary market for drill pipes, which takes away a share from an enterprise producing pipes for the primary market).
3. A low barrier to entry into the market, which easily increases competition and affects pricing, adding a reputational threat that products can be easily counterfeited.

Risks from this group can be minimized by trying to lobby for the introduction/abolition of duties at the legislative level, labeling your products using multiple degrees of protection, changing the market or distribution networks, expanding your activities to new niches (for example, introducing after-sales service for your products).

No. 3. Group of risks associated with the commodity market

In this group, an enterprise may suffer from the following factors:

1. The presence of a monopolist supplier who is able to inflate prices for raw materials and arbitrarily change the terms of the contract. Among other things, this forces us to maintain a large supply of raw materials in warehouses, which increases the financing of the project.
2. Shortage of raw materials, leading to higher prices and downtime of production facilities.

If there is a raw materials monopolist, risks are minimized by searching for similar raw materials, reorienting to the dealers of the main supplier, and creating a strategic mutually beneficial alliance with the monopolist. If there is a shortage of raw materials, it is effective to minimize risks by creating your own raw material base. In addition, if a shortage occurs due to the departure of raw materials to a market with higher prices, you can repurchase raw materials from the supplier at the same prices, but at the same time, you will probably need to increase the selling price of the finished product.

No. 4. Group of risks associated with organizing and running a business

A number of threats may arise here, but in practice, most often, two are realized:

1. The actual sales pattern of goods differs from the planned one, which is due to:
   • lack of control over dealers and their pricing,
   • insufficient payment discipline,
   • overstocking due to price imbalance,
   • logistic errors.
2. Dividing the business chain between different independent companies. Each of them can find another partner. For example, a manufacturing company working in conjunction with a selling company may lose the opportunity to sell products if the selling company finds a more “interesting” manufacturer (supplier).

Here, the dangers are reduced by creating your own sales units or searching for new partners.

Specific risks of innovation projects

About the high level of risk in innovation activity The following statistics say: out of a hundred venture capital firms, 10-20% avoid bankruptcy. But high risks are accompanied by a high rate of profit for innovative projects, which is usually much higher than the profit from traditional types entrepreneurial activity. This fact stimulates innovation and activates the innovation sphere.

IN innovative projects There are dependencies: the more localized the project, the higher the risks. If there are several projects, and they are dispersed in the industry, then the likelihood of success of innovative entrepreneurship increases. And the profit from a successful project covers the costs of unsuccessful developments.

In general, risks in innovative entrepreneurship arise from the creation of new goods, services and technologies, which, with an increased probability, will not be able to gain the expected popularity, and management innovations will not bring the expected effect.

Innovation risks may arise in the following situations:

1. When the introduction of a cheaper production method (or service) loses its technological uniqueness.
2. When a new product is created using old equipment that cannot provide the required level of quality of the product or service.
3. When the relevance of demand decreases (for example, fashion passes).

Based on this, innovative entrepreneurship is characterized by the following threats:

• wrong choice of project,
• failure to provide the project with sufficient funding,
• failure to fulfill business contracts due to the specific complexity of the innovation,
• unforeseen costs for improving the “raw” product,
• personnel problems associated with the lack of competence to implement innovation,
• loss of uniqueness and status of “special technology”,
• violation of property rights,
• the whole range of marketing risks.

The legislation of the Russian Federation provides for the concept of entrepreneurial risk, which makes it possible to apply risk reduction methods to innovative entrepreneurial projects: insure risks, prudently reserve funds, and diversify the project.

• Risk insurance. If the participant himself cannot guarantee the implementation of the project, then he transfers certain risks to the insurance company. Abroad, full insurance is used when it comes to investment projects. Russian insurance practice allows for now to insure individual components of the project (equipment, personnel, real estate, etc.).
• Reserving funds. Here the relationship is established between potential risks that affect the cost of the project and the amount of funds required to overcome violations. The reserve value must be equal to or greater than the fluctuation value. IN Russian practice, for example, the cost of the duration of work by Russian contractors involves adding 20% ​​of costs.
• Diversification. Distribution of risks between project participants.

Minimizing risks inevitably increases project costs, but at the same time increases project profit.

While engaged in entrepreneurial activity, entrepreneurs often face various types risks that ultimately greatly affect the success of the enterprise. All types of risks are closely related to each other, and today we will look in detail at what small business risks there are, what they depend on and what they influence.

Definition and classification of risks

Risk is the possible occurrence of a critical situation for an enterprise or other type of activity. They are basically classified according to the following important indicators:

• formation time;
• main factors of occurrence;
• accounting form;
• form of consequences;
• sphere of origin.

Formation time

Risks based on the time of occurrence are divided into permanent and temporary. Constant – manifests itself throughout the entire period of operation and is directly related to the influence of constant factors. Temporary - appears at certain stages of the production process.

Factors of occurrence

Risks based on their occurrence factors are divided into several types:

1. Political– these are possible losses associated with changes in the political system in the country or with the actions of the authorities. This may include closing state borders, banning the transportation of goods, and so on.
2. Social– associated with a social (public) crisis.
3. Commercial- risk financial losses that can arise in any economic activity. This may include the financial and production risks of the enterprise, which will be discussed below.
4. Ecological– implies the possible liability of a legal entity for causing damage to nature and environment or people's health status.
5. Professional– associated with the lack of professionalism of employees or persons having any connection with the enterprise.

Form or nature of accounting

Types of risks classified by the nature of accounting:

• external (permanent)– not dependent on the activities of the enterprise. Occurs during changing stages of the economic cycle, during changes against the background of changes in the state of the financial market and in other situations that the enterprise cannot influence;
• internal (non-permanent)– directly related to the activities of the organization. The main factors that may be associated with internal risk are low-skilled workers, unproductive structure of funds and assets, undervaluation of partners and other reasons that lead to adverse consequences, but which can be eliminated by risk management.

Any enterprise bears risks associated with its production, commercial and other activities; any entrepreneur is responsible for the consequences of management decisions made. The risk factor forces the entrepreneur to save financial and material resources, to pay special attention to calculations of the effectiveness of new projects, commercial transactions, etc. The risk factor in entrepreneurial activity especially increases during periods of unstable economic conditions, accompanied by inflationary processes, extremely expensive loans, etc.
Concept and types of risk
Risk in entrepreneurship is the likelihood that the enterprise will suffer damages or losses if the planned event (managerial decision) does not materialize, as well as if miscalculations or errors were made when making management decisions. Business risk can be divided into production, financial and investment.
Production risk is directly related to economic activity enterprises. Production risk is usually understood as the probability (possibility) of a company’s failure to fulfill its obligations under a contract or agreement with a customer, risks in the sale of goods and services, errors in pricing policy, and the risk of bankruptcy.
In the production activities of an industrial enterprise it is possible to distinguish the following risks:

• the risk of a complete shutdown of the enterprise due to the impossibility of concluding contracts for the supply of materials, components and other initial products necessary for this technology;
• the risk of shortfall in receipt of raw materials due to the failure of concluded supply contracts, as well as the risk of non-return of funds transferred to the supplier in the form of prepayments;
• the risk of non-conclusion of contracts for the sale of manufactured products, works or services, i.e. the risk of complete or partial non-sale;
• the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
• the risk of buyer refusal of received and paid for products or the risk of return;
• the risk of failure of concluded agreements on the provision of loans, investments or credits;
• price risk associated with determining the price of products and services sold by an enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of necessary means of production, raw materials used, materials, fuel, energy, labor and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). According to some calculations, a 1% error in the price of sold products leads to losses amounting to at least 1% of sales revenue. If the demand for a given product is elastic, then losses may amount to 2-3%. With product profitability of 10-12%, a 1% error in price could mean a 5-10% loss in profit. Price risk increases significantly in conditions of inflation;
• the risk of bankruptcy of both business partners (counterparties, distributors, suppliers, etc.) and the enterprise itself.

Financial risk is the probability of damage as a result of any operations in the financial, credit and exchange spheres, transactions with securities, i.e. risk that arises from the nature of financial transactions. Financial risks include credit risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, and the risk of lost financial profits.
Credit risk is associated with the borrower's failure to pay the principal and interest accrued on the loan. Interest rate risk is the danger of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, and investment funds as a result of an increase in the interest rates they pay on borrowed funds above the rates on loans provided. Currency risks reflect the danger of foreign exchange losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one foreign currency in relation to another, including the national currency during foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions. The risk of lost financial profit is determined by the likelihood of financial damage that may arise as a result of failure to implement any activity or stop business activities. In the investment activity of an enterprise, one can distinguish the risk of investing in securities, or “portfolio risk,” which characterizes the degree of risk of a decrease in the profitability of specific securities and the formed portfolio of securities, as well as the risk of innovation. New projects contain three types of risks:

• risk associated with technical innovations;
• risk associated with the economic or organizational side of production;
• risk determined by the “youth of the enterprise”. Risks can be classified according to other criteria. For example, risks are distinguished as pure and speculative, dynamic and static, absolute and relative. Pure risks mean the possibility of losses or zero results. Typically these include production and investment risks. Speculative risks are expressed in the probability of obtaining both positive and negative results. Financial risks, for example, are considered speculative risks -

Dynamic risk is the risk of unforeseen changes due to management decisions or changes that have occurred in the economic, political and other spheres public life. Such changes can lead to both losses and additional income. Static risk is the risk of losses due to damage to property, as well as loss of income due to the incapacity of the organization. This risk can only lead to losses.
Absolute risk is assessed in monetary units (rubles, dollars, etc.); relative risk - in fractions of a unit or as a percentage. For example, risk in entrepreneurship can be measured absolute value- the amount of damages and losses and the relative value - the degree of risk, i.e. a measure of the probability of failure to implement the planned activity or failure to achieve the planned level of profit, income, price. Both indicators are necessary and carry relevant information - absolute and relative risk.
Risk factors
Entrepreneurial risk develops under the influence of objective (external) and subjective (internal) factors.
The most important external factors include: inflation (a significant and uneven increase in prices for raw materials, supplies, fuel, energy, components, transport and other services, as well as for the products and services of the enterprise); changes in bank interest rates and lending conditions, tax rates and customs duties; changes in property and rental relations, in labor legislation, etc. No less dangerous for the activities of the enterprise is the influence of internal factors that are associated with errors and omissions of management and personnel. Thus, according to foreign experts, 90% of various failures of small firms are associated with inexperience of management, its inability to adapt to changing conditions, conservatism of thinking, which leads to ineffective enterprise management, making wrong decisions, and loss of position in the market.
Subjective factors include the risk attitude factor. People vary in their willingness to take risks. So, some managers like to take risks, others do not want to take risks, and others are indifferent to risks.

us. The choice depends on the behavior of specific people risk strategy in the activities of the enterprise. A manager who prefers a stable income chooses a risk-averse strategy in entrepreneurial activity. With such anti-risk behavior, there is usually a low income (profit) of the enterprise. A risk-neutral manager focuses on the expected income, regardless of possible losses. Risk-averse managers are willing to take risks in the hope of getting greater profits, i.e. ready to fight to minimize losses in order to maximize results.
Risk analysis
The risk to which an enterprise is exposed is the probable threat of ruin or incurring such financial losses that could stop the whole business. Since the possibility of failure is always present, the question arises about methods to reduce risk. To answer this question, it is necessary to quantify the risk, which will allow us to compare the amount of risk of various solution options and select from them the one that best suits the risk strategy chosen by the enterprise.
When analyzing risk, assumptions proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer are usually used:

• losses from risk are independent of each other;
• a loss in one line of business does not necessarily increase the likelihood of a loss in another, except in cases of force majeure;
• the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.

The general scheme of risk analysis is presented in Fig. 23.11.

Definition of financial
SOSGOIGYILMUSTI (project liquidity)

(x)], where the probability of each outcome (A) is used as the frequency or weight of the corresponding value (x). In general, it can be written like this:
E (x) = A ]X] + A2X2+ ​​... + Ahpn,.
Let's say that when promoting a new product there is an event. And out of 200 cases it gave a profit of 20.0 thousand rubles. from each unit of goods in 90 cases (probability 90: 200 = 0.45), profit 25.0 thousand rubles. in 60 cases (probability 60: 200 = 0.30) and a profit of 30.0 thousand rubles. in 50 cases (probability 50: 200 =

1. 25). The average expected profit will be:

20,0 0,45 + 25,0 0,30 + 30,0 0,25 = 24.
The implementation of activity B out of 200 cases gave a profit of 19.0 thousand rubles. in 85 cases, profit 24.0 thousand rubles. in 60 cases, 31.0 thousand rubles. in 50 cases. Under event B, the average expected profit will be;
19,0 - (85: 200) + 24,0 (60: 200) + 31,0 (50: 200) = 23,8.
Comparing the magnitude of the expected profit when investing capital in activities A and B, we can conclude that the amount of profit received from activity A ranges from 20.0 to 30.0 thousand rubles, the average value is 24.0 thousand rubles; in event B, the amount of profit received ranges from 19.0 to 31.0 thousand rubles. and the average value is 23.8 thousand rubles.
The average value is a generalized quantitative characteristics and does not allow you to make a decision in favor of any investment option. To make a final decision, it is necessary to measure the variability (range or variability) of indicators, i.e. determine the degree of variability of a possible result. The variability of a possible result is the degree of deviation of the expected value from the average value. To determine it, the variance or standard deviation is usually calculated.
Dispersion is the weighted average of the squared deviations of actual results from the expected average:
? IX - хШЧ_Л а* * ,
where a2 is dispersion; x is the expected value for each observation case; xB - average expected value; A is the frequency of cases, or the number of observations.
a = Standard deviation is determined by the formula:
Dispersion and standard deviation are measures of absolute variability. They are measured in the same units as the varying characteristic. To analyze the degree of deviation, the coefficient of variation is usually used.
The coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean. It shows the degree of deviation obtained
V = a-100, x
ny values.
where V is the coefficient of variation, %; from - standard deviation;
x - arithmetic mean.
The coefficient of variation allows you to compare the variability of characteristics that have different units of measurement. The higher the coefficient of variation, the greater the variability of the trait. The following estimates of the coefficients of variation have been established:

• up to 10% - weak fluctuation;
• 10-25% - moderate fluctuation;
• over 25% - high fluctuation1.

In our example, the standard deviation is:

• in event A: aA = 16.5 = 4.06;
• in event B: aB == 24.06 = 4.905.

The coefficient of variation:
for event A: VA = 16.917;
for event B: VB = 20.609.
The coefficient of variation when investing capital in event A is less than in event B. Therefore, event A is associated with less risk, and therefore is preferable. The dispersion method is also successfully used in the presence of more than two alternative characteristics.
In cases where information is limited, quantitative risk analysis is carried out using analytical methods, or standard probability distribution functions, for example the normal distribution, or the Gaussian distribution, the exponential (exponential) probability distribution, which is quite widely used in reliability calculations, as well as the Poisson distribution, which is often used in queuing theory.
Probabilistic risk assessment has been sufficiently developed mathematically, but relying only on mathematical calculations in business activities is not always sufficient, since the accuracy of the calculations largely depends on the initial information.
The method of expert assessments is based on a generalization of the opinions of specialist experts about the probabilities of risk. Intuitive characteristics based on the knowledge and experience of an expert provide, in some cases, fairly accurate estimates. Expert methods allow you to quickly and without much time and labor costs obtain the information necessary to develop a management decision.
The analogy method is usually used when analyzing the risks of a new project. The project is considered as a “living” organism that has certain stages of development. The project life cycle consists of a development phase, a go-to-market phase, a growth phase, a maturity phase, and a decline phase. By studying the project life cycle, you can obtain information about each stage of the project, identify the causes of undesirable consequences, and assess the degree of risk. However, in practice it can be quite difficult to collect relevant information.
The method for assessing the solvency and financial stability of an enterprise allows us to foresee the likelihood of bankruptcy. First of all, the information contained in the annual financial statements is analyzed. The main criteria of insolvency, characterizing the structure of the balance sheet, are: the current liquidity ratio, the equity ratio and the coefficient of restoration (loss) of solvency. Based on this system of indicators, it is possible to assess the probability of the enterprise's insolvency.
Various methods of financial analysis make it possible to identify weaknesses in the economy of an enterprise, characterize its liquidity, financial stability, profitability, return on assets and market activity. However, usually a conclusion about the probability of bankruptcy can be made only on the basis of a comparison of indicators of this enterprise and similar enterprises that have gone bankrupt or avoided bankruptcy. Finding relevant information is quite difficult, so multifactor models are widely used to calculate bankruptcy probabilities. For example, in foreign practice, E. Altman’s multifactor models are widely used to predict bankruptcy. In the 1977 model he developed, the indicators of return on assets, profit dynamics, cumulative profitability, total assets, interest coverage ratios on loans, liquidity, and autonomy are used as variables (factors). This model makes it possible to predict bankruptcy over a five-year period with an accuracy of up to 70%1.
The cost feasibility method allows you to determine the critical volume of production or sales, i.e. the lower limit of output at which profit is zero. Producing products in volumes less than critical only brings losses. The critical production volume must be assessed during development new products and with a reduction in product output caused by a drop in demand, a reduction in supplies of materials and components, replacement of products with new ones, tightening environmental requirements and other reasons. To carry out the corresponding calculations, all costs of production and sales of products are divided into variables (materials, components, tools, wage, transport costs, etc.) and fixed (depreciation, management expenses, rent, interest on loans, etc.) -
The critical production facility (CPO) can be represented as follows:
form:
" $mst- : Sh~
where C is the price of the product (unit of production), rub.; Zpost - fixed costs, rub.; 3per - variable costs, rub.
Some foreign authors call the critical production volume the profitability threshold and use this indicator to assess the financial stability of an enterprise. The greater the difference between the actual production volume and the critical one, the higher the financial stability.
Any change in production (sales) volume has a significant impact on profits. This dependence called the production (or operating) leverage effect. Production leverage shows the degree of influence fixed costs on profit (loss) with changes in production volume.
Production leverage (LPR) can be represented as follows:
LpR = (V- 3per): P = (Zpost + P) : P,
where P is the balance sheet profit from sales (before payment of income tax, interest on loans and dividends); B - sales revenue; 3per - variable costs; Post fixed costs.
From the above ratio it follows that the greater the share of fixed costs in the total costs for a certain volume of production,

the higher the production leverage, and therefore the higher the entrepreneurial risk. Only those enterprises that are able to provide large volumes of production and sales and have a stable demand for their products can work with high production leverage.
Ways to reduce risk
The activity of an enterprise, one way or another, is associated with risk. The task of the enterprise management is to reduce the degree of risk. For this purpose they are used various ways: diversification, insurance, limiting, reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses, risk distribution, obtaining more information about the upcoming choice and results. Diversification is the distribution of investments among a variety of activities, the results of which are not directly related. An enterprise, incurring losses in one type of activity, can make a profit from another area of ​​activity. Diversification allows you to increase the enterprise's resistance to changes in the business environment.
Insurance is the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company. To reduce the degree of risk, property insurance and accident insurance are used. Property insurance can take the following forms: contract construction risk insurance, equipment insurance, cargo insurance, etc. Accident insurance includes: general civil liability insurance and professional liability insurance. This type of insurance is also widely used: hedging - insurance of the price of a product against the risk of either a fall that is undesirable for the manufacturer, or an increase that is unfavorable for the consumer.
According to the purposes and technique of carrying out the operation, hedging is divided into hedging by sale, i.e. conclusion by a manufacturer or commodity owner of a futures contract for the purpose of insurance against a decrease in price when selling in the future a product, either already in stock or not yet produced, not intended for mandatory delivery within a certain period; hedging by purchase, i.e. conclusion by a consumer or seller of a futures contract for the purpose of insurance against an increase in price when purchasing a necessary product in the future.
Limitation involves setting a limit, i.e. certain amounts of expenses, sales of goods on credit, amounts of capital investment, etc.
Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses involves establishing a balance between potential risks and the amount of expenses necessary to overcome the consequences of these risks. This risk reduction method is usually used when performing various projects. In general, the reserve is used to finance additional work, compensate for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overhead costs and other costs that arise during the implementation of the project.
Risk sharing involves sharing risk among project participants. The increase in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, and the high dynamism of the external environment increase the risk of the project. Factoring operations are a way to share risk. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is associated mainly with the need of individual suppliers for accelerated receipt of payments that seem dubious. Typically, in these situations there is a risk that the payer will not pay the claim at all. The bank that purchased such claims from the supplier may in this case suffer losses. Factoring operations are high-risk operations. The size of the commission depends both on the degree of risk (on the level of “doubtfulness” of the debt being purchased) and on the duration of the contractual deferment. In some cases it reaches 20% of the payment amount.
Any management decision is made in conditions where the results are not defined and information is limited. Consequently, the more complete the information, the more preconditions there are to make a better forecast and reduce risk. The cost of complete information is calculated as the difference between the expected cost of an activity (acquisition project) when there is full information, and expected value when information is incomplete.
Three basic principles of risk reduction are common in business practice:

• do not take more risks than your own capital allows;
• do not forget about the consequences of risk;
• Don't risk a lot for a little.

There is always danger in entrepreneurial activity. Any action of a businessman can result in risk and lead to damage, losses and losses. A powerful incentive that forces a person to commit them is the likelihood of receiving a certain income.

Definition of risk

Modern economic practice has recently acquired such concepts as “risk characteristics”, “unstable situation”, “risk analysis”, “risk minimization”. Only a few years ago, the pooling of accumulated international experience and the Russian theoretical base made it possible to legislate these concepts, as well as make them a mandatory part of a business plan or investment project.

Risk is the likelihood of how much expected income will be missed or how much of the resources will be lost.

Risk characteristics:

• potential damage expressed in money;
• probability of risk occurrence;
• level of risk, that is, the ratio of costs required to prepare and implement the risk and potential damage: if the result exceeds 1, then the risk is considered unjustified;
• legitimacy of the risk: this value is determined by the probability of the risk being within the limits established by law and standards (for example, the reserve fund of a tour operator must be equal to no less than 1 million rubles).

Human life is also always accompanied by risk. The cause of danger can be the surrounding external environment or the person himself.

Risk is the likelihood that a hazard will occur, causing specific consequences and an uncertain amount of damage. An example is the risk of disease.

Entrepreneurial risks

Entrepreneurial risk was first classified by J. Keynes. He believed that the price of a product should include: costs associated with increased wear and tear of the equipment used, variability of market conditions, as well as a number of destructions caused by the occurrence of any emergency (risk costs).

IN economic sphere it is customary to highlight the following types business risks:

1. Risk of the borrower or entrepreneur– arises if you plan to invest your own funds, and the entrepreneur has doubts as to whether the benefit he planned will be achieved.
2. Lender risk- occurs in cases where a credit transaction takes place. It is related to the validity of the trust given, because the debtor may begin to evade fulfillment of his own obligation or organize a deliberate bankruptcy. The likelihood of risk also increases due to insufficient collateral for the loan in the event that involuntary bankruptcy occurs as a result of the expected income not being achieved.
3. Inflation risk– possible decrease in the value of a unit of money. This suggests the conclusion that the reliability of a cash loan is much lower than that of real property. In addition, the long-term perspective of investments puts the debtor in a privileged position in relation to the creditor.

J. Keynes believed that entrepreneurial risk requires preliminary quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Types of business risks

The concept of business risk includes the following issues:

• risk management;
• business risk insurance;
• distribution of risks according to subjects;
• change in risk conditions, etc.

Among the main ones we can highlight the “danger” at the national level (the economy of the native country) and the international level (the economy of other countries).

National business risks include:

Economic risks at the macroeconomic level are represented by national and local ones. The subject of the first is supreme body state power. Local risk is inherent in private, specific tasks and manifests itself at the level of sectoral or regional economic management.

Risk subject

Characterization of risk involves its classification in accordance with the subject, type and manifestation. Risk subjects are usually legal or natural persons who take part in it or are the cause of it.

Subjects of business risks can be:

• manufacturing enterprises;
• individuals (individuals or beneficiaries);
• other entities (organizations practicing non-production activities, including government agencies).

Among the main types of risk are:

• production (clean);
• investment;
• innovative;
• financial;
• complex;
• commodity;
• bank.

The last type of risk is a separate position, since its importance and specificity are very high.

Risk analysis

Any enterprise, business, company is inherent in the presence of certain risks that can affect the final result. In the process of implementing a business strategy, the rights, duties and obligations of the entrepreneur may change, an unforeseen or previously unapplied process may appear, as well as consequences of a different type. The choice of optimal actions aimed at achieving results is greatly influenced by risk analysis and consideration of the impact of side effects.

For the assessment, it is necessary to use all available information to determine the likelihood of a certain event occurring and the possible scale of its consequences. Risk analysis is aimed at identifying all negative events and circumstances, for example, loss during a venture, disaster, leading to serious consequences, etc. At the same time, it is possible to identify potential positive consequences.

Qualitative risk analysis

This study is based on an internal (instinctive) assessment of emerging events. This level involves subjective judgment and the resulting opinions.

Qualitative risk assessment is of a simple descriptive nature, while the research analyst must arrive at a quantitative result, a cost estimate of the identified risk, its Negative consequences and “stabilization” measures.

The qualitative approach sets as its main task the identification and possible types risks inherent in the project. In addition, the expected consequences of the hypothetical realization of the identified risk must be described and given a cost estimate and measures aimed at minimizing and/or compensating for this event must be proposed.

Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative risk assessment can be carried out using the following methods:

1. Deterministic approach involves a point estimate, that is, in order to understand what the outcome will be in a particular case, each event must be assigned a certain value. For example, a financial model allows you to evaluate the following options: the worst (unprofitability of the project), the best (future profit) and the most probable (moderate, relative size arrived). This method has a number of disadvantages: it does not allow for maximum possible quantity options for the development of events (only the main versions are considered), in addition, risk factors that have a significant impact on the situation are not sufficiently taken into account, which significantly simplifies the model.
2. Stochastic risk analysis- a much more reliable method. This approach involves the use of range values ​​of the initial parameters (a probability distribution is generated). At the same time, different variables have different probabilities of consequences. The value is chosen randomly based on a possible probability distribution.

Internal and external risk factors

Risk factors for any business can be divided into 2 groups:

• internal;
• external.

An external (objective) factor is everything that has a direct connection with production process business entity, that is, organization.

External risk factors may be:

• regional;
• socio-economic;
• political;
• industry-specific.

The socio-economic sphere includes: inflation risk factor, deflationary, tax, interest, price in relation to raw materials, materials and components. As a result of the impact of these factors, the market situation may change dramatically, the solvency of demand may decrease, or competition may become tougher.

The regional factor includes: socio-demographic risk, regional and tax. The industry factor presupposes the danger of the organization’s position in the industry, environmental and others. The political factor is a loss of control caused by instability and the impossibility of normal business activities due to the fact that restrictions related to trade and trade were introduced.

An internal (subjective) risk factor can manifest itself directly in the process of conducting business and directly depends on what type, method, strategy and tactics of business have been chosen.

Hazard identification

The danger is often potential, that is, hidden. Hazard identification consists of detecting and establishing characteristics of a quantitative, spatial, temporal and other nature, without which it is impossible to develop and implement operational and preventive measures that contribute to the normal functioning of the technical system and improving the quality of life.

The identification process allows us to identify the range of hazards, the likelihood of their occurrence, spatial localization (coordinates), the scale of damage and a number of other parameters necessary to solve a particular problem.

Hazard identification involves the use of the following methods:

• Engineering identifies hazards that have a probabilistic nature of origin.
• The expert identifies failures and looks for the reasons for their origin. This requires the creation of a special expert commission consisting of different experts who give opinions.
• Sociological. In this case, the danger is determined based on a study of the opinions of the population (social group).
• The registration uses information about the counting of any events, resource costs, number of victims, etc.
• Organoleptic. For analysis, only the information that was received by the human senses (vision, touch, smell, taste, etc.) is taken. An example would be a visual inspection of products or equipment, as well as an auditory determination of the clarity of the engine.

The risk characteristic is of Italian origin and represents a danger or obstacle that was, to a certain extent, foreseeable. In other words, this is uncertainty that, due to certain events, was difficult or impossible to foresee.

Many sciences tried to establish and study the concept of risk, such as disaster theory, psychology, philosophy, medicine, etc. Moreover, each of them took as a basis its own subject of research and used its own approaches and methods. This is where the multidimensionality of this phenomenon lies.

Free interaction of market entities and dynamically developing competition led to the fact that economic risks were recognized as an objectively necessary category, entailing significant adjustments to the amount of not only business income, but also wages.

On methods for assessing economic risks

To determine the level of risk, you need to do the following:

• identify possible solutions to the problem;
• determine the potential consequences that the implementation of the decision may lead to;
• carry out an integral risk assessment in terms of quantitative and qualitative aspects.

There are several risk assessment methods designed to implement the above measures in combination. But, despite this, the general trend of assessing danger in two directions remains. It's about the level of risk and the risk of time.

The first determines the ratio of the scale of expected losses and the volume of fixed assets of the organization, as well as the likelihood that these losses will occur.

Any method for assessing the level of risk takes the variability of the consequences of a particular decision as an initial parameter.

Variability is the number of fluctuations that occur in a certain range of values ​​as a result of a deviation from a characteristic average value.

The main postulate of the risk level is the following definition: higher value variability carries with it a higher level of project risk.

Another factor that greatly influences risk is time. That is why economic danger is often referred to as an “increasing function of time,” that is, the longer the decision taken is implemented, the higher the level of risk.

Investment risks

Investment risk occurs where there is a possibility that profits may be insufficient or lost altogether during the implementation of a particular business project. In this case, the object of risk is the property interest of persons who invested their own funds, that is, investors.

In accordance with the specifics of implementing a business plan or the method of attracting borrowed funds, the following risks can be identified:

• credit;
• inherent in the first stage of the investment project;
• entrepreneurial, directly related to the second stage of investment activity;
• country

Investment risks are characterized by a complex structure, since each of the above components of the group cannot be called homogeneous.

Thus, the general risks that occur at the first stage of project implementation are as follows:

• identifying a technical error in the project;
• incorrect registration legal law: lease or ownership in relation to land plot, property or permission to start construction work. The causes of risk are often hidden in the lack of appropriate knowledge.
• Exceeding the estimate due to the fact that the cost of the project has increased.

The second stage of the investment project implementation should ensure its recoupment. This stage involves normal trading or production activities, so it is subject to various adverse consequences, otherwise called business risks.

Financing an investment project by obtaining a loan can only be used for certain purposes specified in the feasibility study of the business plan. This situation may raise the risk of possible non-repayment of the amount of borrowed funds and interest on them, that is, credit risk. The reasons may be different: incompleteness of the project, changes in the market situation, low level of marketing processing of the business plan, or the occurrence of emergency circumstances.

The main business risks that every business owner may face are divided into two categories: systematic and unsystematic. The development of risk analysis methods is carried out for each of the categories. The concept of risk is based on the danger of losses as a result of various reasons. Modern sources indicate that business risk is one of the key positions that should be considered at the stage.

The characteristics of entrepreneurial risk are objectified by the uncertainty of the external environment in relation to the entrepreneur (company).

Types of risks

The complexity of classifying business risks is determined by their diversity. Potential risks in the business plan of any company can be determined by various factors: both current operational activities and strategic, long-term ones.

There are categories of risks that affect all types of business activities, and there are specific risks that affect only certain areas of activity.

Specific risks are inherent in production, trading, banking, and insurance activities. A successful project must analyze them systematically so that the conduct of activities has minimal risk for the development of a medium-sized business. Next, we will tell you what the classification of business risks is.

Specific risks are inherent in production, trading, banking, and insurance activities.

About classification

External and internal

As part of the entrepreneur's business processes, risks are divided into external and internal.

External risks include risks that the company cannot influence, only predict:

• Natural disasters.
• Worker strikes.
• Military operations in the country.
• Changes in the system of legislation and taxation.
• Nationalization.
• Introduction of restrictions on the financial and credit market.

Internal risks arise within the company. These include a low level of qualifications of employees, an ineffective management system, errors in strategic planning, and more.

Short-term and permanent

Short-term risks arise only over a certain period of time. For example, the risk of payment for goods delivered exists until the buyer makes payment.

Persistent risks continuously threaten business activity in a particular geographic area or in a particular sector of the economy (for example, the risk of non-payment in a country with an imperfect legal system).

Acceptable, critical and catastrophic

The threat of complete loss of profit from a project or business activity is considered an acceptable type of risk. The critical risk is associated not only with loss of profit, but also with the loss of expected revenue (that is, costs are reimbursed at your own expense). Catastrophic risk can lead to bankruptcy of the enterprise, loss of investments or personal property of the entrepreneur.

Justified and unjustified

Everything is very clear with this classification option; we will not dwell on it.

Industrial, commercial and financial

Production risk is associated with economic activity. The following risks are identified in the production activities of an industrial enterprise:

• The risk of complete or partial shutdown of the enterprise due to failures in the supply of materials, components and other resources necessary to ensure production.
• Risk of selling already produced products.
• The risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for shipped products.
• The risk of buyer refusal of goods or services received and paid for.
• The risk of failure of concluded agreements on the provision of loans, investments or credits.
• Price risk.

Commercial risk arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by an enterprise. This category includes trade and transport risks, and the risk of competition.

Financial risk is associated with financial activities and arises when carrying out financial transactions, based on the fact that the role of goods is capital, securities, currency (for example, foreign exchange, interest, investment).

Additionally

Systematic risks that an entrepreneur cannot influence include:

• Political (instability of the political situation in the country and socio-economic difficulties).
• Legal (unstable legislation, in which it is difficult to make forecasts due to the possibility of unexpected bills being adopted).
• Environmental, natural and other natural risks.
• Economic risks are associated with instability of exchange rates, changes in tax and currency legislation.

Unsystematic risks are risks that an entrepreneur can and should partially influence or eliminate completely.

Management of risks

In risk management important element systems is the development of activities for them. The following methods are identified to reduce company risks:

Normative method

It implies the establishment of certain standards, limits, restrictions on the conduct of certain actions:

• Establishing a maximum production volume.
• Establishing a maximum volume of products shipped on credit (taking into account the financial situation of consumers).
• Setting limits on borrowing funds.
• Setting limits on the volume of investment in a certain area of ​​activity (for specific structural divisions, levels of responsibility).

Insurance

Risk insurance is the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company. Employee accident insurance, property insurance (cargo, transport, property), financial risk insurance, and liability insurance can be used.

Diversification

Diversification as a method of reducing risk is the expansion of an enterprise by adding technologically diverse areas of activity. To successfully run any type of business, it is necessary to use risk reduction measures in combination; it is also important to predict possible risks.

The degree of acceptable risks is determined by the size of fixed assets, production volume, and level of profitability. The more capital an enterprise has, the less sensitive it is to risks and the less it is influenced by unfavorable external factors. The main task of a manager is to take into account potential risks so that they do not become an unpleasant surprise in the future.