The risk management process includes the following steps. Brief description of the stages of the risk management process

Main stages of the risk management process:

Risk analysis;

Selection of risk management methods when assessing their comparative effectiveness;

Decision-making;

Direct impact on risk;

Monitoring and adjusting the results of the management process.

Risk analysis is the initial stage aimed at obtaining the necessary information about the structure, properties of the object and existing risks. The collected information should be sufficient to make adequate decisions at subsequent stages. The analysis consists of identifying risks and assessing them. When identifying risks (qualitative component), all risks inherent in the system under study are determined. The main thing here is not to miss important circumstances and describe in detail all significant risks. An assessment is a quantitative description of identified risks, during which their characteristics are determined, such as the likelihood and extent of possible damage.

Then comes the stage of choosing a method of influencing risks in order to minimize possible damage in the future. As a rule, each type of risk allows for two or three traditional way its reduction. Therefore, the problem arises of assessing the comparative effectiveness of risk management methods in order to select the best one. Comparison can take place on the basis of various criteria, including economic ones.

After selection optimal ways impact on specific risks, it becomes possible to formulate a general strategy for managing the entire range of risks of the enterprise. This is the decision-making stage when the required financial and labor resources, tasks are set and distributed among managers, the market for relevant services is analyzed, and consultations with specialists are held.

The process of directly influencing risk is presented in three main ways: reducing, maintaining and transferring risk.

Reducing risk means reducing either the extent of possible damage or the likelihood of adverse events occurring. Most often, it is achieved through the implementation of preventive organizational and technical measures, which mean various ways strengthening the safety of buildings and structures, installing control and warning systems, fire safety devices, training personnel on how to behave in extreme situations, etc.

Maintaining the risk at the existing level does not always mean abandoning any actions aimed at compensating for damage, although such a possibility is provided. An enterprise can create special reserve funds (self-insurance funds or a risk fund), from which compensation for losses will be made in the event of unfavorable situations. This method of risk management is called self-insurance. Measures taken while maintaining risk may also include obtaining credits and loans to compensate for losses and restore production, receiving government subsidies, etc.

Measures to transfer risk mean transferring responsibility for it to third parties while maintaining the existing level of risk. These include insurance, which involves transferring risk to an insurance company for a fee, as well as various types of financial guarantees, guarantees, etc. Risk transfer can also be carried out by introducing into the text of documents (agreements, trade contracts and other special clauses that reduce their own liability in the event of unforeseen events or transfer the risk to the counterparty.

And finally the final stage risk management are monitoring and adjusting the results of implementing the chosen strategy, taking into account new information. Control consists of obtaining information from managers about losses that have occurred and measures taken to minimize them. It can be expressed in identifying new circumstances that change the level of risk, transferring this information to the insurance company, monitoring the effectiveness of security systems, etc. Every few years, data on the effectiveness of the risk management measures used should be reviewed, taking into account information about losses that occurred during this period.

Control financial risks is a set of techniques and methods that reduce the likelihood of these risks occurring or localize their consequences.

From the point of view of timely decision-making to prevent and minimize losses, three approaches to risk management can be distinguished: -

a proactive approach means the manager makes maximum use of risk controls to minimize their consequences.

With this approach, all business transactions are carried out after taking measures to prevent possible financial losses; -

The adaptive approach is based on taking into account the current business conditions in the management process, and risk management itself is carried out in the course of business operations. At the same time, it is impossible to prevent all damage in the event of a risk event, but only part of the losses can be avoided; -

a conservative approach assumes that control actions on risks begin after the occurrence of a risk event, when the enterprise suffers damage. In this case, the goal of management is to localize the damage within the framework of any one financial transaction or one division.

The risk management process includes several stages: *

risk identification; *

risk assessment; *

risk control; *

risk financing.

Defining risk is the basis of risk management: you cannot start working with risk if you do not know that it even exists. It is necessary to find out how the company may be exposed to losses and what are the possible reasons for them.

Risk assessment is carried out to determine the probability and size of losses that characterize the magnitude (or degree) of risk. The definition and assessment of risk together constitute the concept of “risk analysis”.

Risk assessment can be carried out various methods analysis: qualitative, quantitative or complex.

Using qualitative analysis, it is possible to determine possible types risk, factors influencing the level of risk, and potential areas of risk.

All factors influencing the degree of risk can be divided into external and internal. External factors include the political and economic situation in the country and abroad, the legislative framework for business activities, the tax system, competition, natural disasters, etc. Internal factors include the economic strategy of the company, the degree of use of resources in production and economic activities, qualifications of employees, quality of management, etc.

In the activities of any company in a market economy, five main areas of risk can be distinguished: 1)

risk-free area (the company does not risk anything and receives at least the expected profit); 2)

area of ​​minimal risk (the company risks part or all of its profit); 3)

area of ​​increased risk (in the worst case, the company will cover all costs, in the best case, it will receive a profit less than expected); 4)

area of ​​critical risk (the company risks not only losing profit, but also not receiving expected revenue; the scale of its activities is reduced, it loses working capital, and gets into debt); 5)

area of ​​catastrophic risk (the company’s activities lead to bankruptcy).

Qualitative analysis can be carried out by various methods, the most important of which are the methods of using analogues and expert assessments.

The method of using analogues involves the search and use of similarities, similarities between phenomena, objects, systems. It is used if it is not possible to use other risk assessment methods. However, this method is characterized by subjectivity, since the knowledge and experience of the analyst are of great importance.

The method of expert assessments is implemented by processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs and specialists acting as experts. Each expert is provided with a list of possible risks and asked to assess the likelihood of their occurrence. Expert assessments are then analyzed for inconsistency; they must satisfy the following rule: the maximum permissible difference between the estimates of two experts for any type of risk should not exceed 50%, which eliminates fundamental differences in estimates of the probability of occurrence a separate type risk. As a result we get expert assessments probabilities of acceptable critical risk or the most probable losses. With this method, the correct selection of experts is of great importance.

In quantitative analysis, the size of individual risks is determined by mathematical and statistical methods: -

assessing the likelihood of expected damage; -

minimizing losses; -

using a decision tree; -

analysis of financial indicators of the enterprise.

The statistical method studies the statistics of losses and profits at an enterprise for a certain period of time, establishes the magnitude and frequency of obtaining a certain result; Based on this, a forecast for the future is made.

For this purpose, the coefficient of variation is calculated, which characterizes the change quantification sign when moving from one option to another. Coefficient of variation (V) – relative value, therefore its size is not affected by the absolute values ​​of the indicator being studied. It represents the ratio of the standard deviation (?) to the weighted average value of the event (?) and is determined as a percentage:

How more value coefficient of variation, the stronger the change in the analyzed characteristic. The following has been empirically established quality characteristic different meanings coefficient of variation: -

up to 10% - slight change; -

from 0% to 25% - moderate change; -

over 25% is a high change.

The average expected value of an event (?) is a weighted average of all possible outcomes, taking into account the probability of each outcome occurring, and is determined by the formula:

where Xi is the absolute value of the i-th result;

Pi is the probability of the i-th result occurring;

i is the number of outcome options.

The average value of an event is a generalized quantitative characteristics and does not allow you to make a decision in favor of any option. For the final decision, it is necessary to determine the degree of deviation of the expected value from the average value, the measures of which are dispersion (?2) and standard deviation (?).

Dispersion is the weighted average of the squared deviations of actual results from the expected average:

Dispersion signals the presence of risk, but does not indicate the direction of deviation from the expected value.

The standard deviation is found by the formula:

It is measured in the same units of measurement as the varying characteristic.

The statistical method can also be used in a somewhat simplified form. The investor's risk is characterized by an assessment of the probable value of the maximum and minimum income. Moreover, the greater the range between them with equal probability, the higher the degree of risk.

In this case, the following formula can be used to calculate the variance:

where Pmax, min is the probability of obtaining maximum and minimum income;

xmax, min - maximum and minimum income;

Average expected income.

The advantages of the statistical method for assessing business risk are its relative accuracy and simplicity of mathematical calculations, and the obvious disadvantage is the need large quantity source data. Therefore, this method is not suitable for assessing the risks of a new business.

The method for assessing the probability of expected damage is based on the fact that the degree of risk (R) is defined as the product of the expected damage and the probability that this damage will occur. The best solution is the one with the minimum size of the calculated indicator.

The loss minimization method is based on calculating possible losses when choosing a specific solution to a problem. For this purpose, two types of losses are distinguished: 1)

losses caused by the inaccuracy of the model being studied (little information); 2)

losses caused by inaccuracy and ineffectiveness of management (the possibility of making incorrect management decisions).

The decision tree method is based on constructing solution options. It is used when a decision is made in stages or when the probabilities change with the transition from one decision option to another. Disadvantages: labor intensity and lack of consideration of the influence of external factors.

The mathematical method is important for assessing financial risks, the essence of which is to use the criterion for assessing risk mathematical expectation, Laplace criterion and Hurwitz criterion.

Risk control. The term "risk control" includes all measures aimed at reducing the likelihood of a possible risk, eliminating or attempting to avoid it, and reducing the severity of the risk if it occurs.

Some risks can only be reduced to an acceptable level. As for risks that are at an unacceptable level, they need to be dealt with at the next stage of risk management, which is risk financing.

Risk financing. Here the company needs to take care of how to cover financial damage from risks that turn out to be unacceptable and uncontrollable at an acceptable level.

In this case, the organization can leave the risk to itself, and create a reserve fund to cover possible losses, or not think about the consequences at all, as often happens here in Russia.

However, businesses that think about the future transfer risks to an insurance company. This form of risk control turns an uncertain risk into definite costs, that is, into very specific insurance premiums.

Risks that cannot be eliminated or reduced to an acceptable level must be financed.

Risk financial systems include all possible means of covering the financial consequences of damage caused. In practice, this means ensuring the ability of an enterprise or organization to withstand probable dangers and insuring unprotected risks.

The following financial risk measures may be used: *

losses are paid as they occur, directly from funds allocated for current expenses; *

Every year a certain amount is set aside and placed in an internal fund. From this fund, which forms Reserve capital, and funds are drawn over a long period of time to cover losses (self-insurance); *

risks are transferred to insurance companies. Insurance allows you to turn a risk of uncertain magnitude into certain costs, i.e. in insurance premiums.

Various combinations of such measures make it possible to ensure reliable protection assets of an enterprise or organization.

The financial risk management policy developed at the enterprise can be drawn up in the form of a special document - a “risk management business plan”, which reflects the following main sections: *

financial ideology of the enterprise in terms of risk taking, reflected in the financial strategy and financial policy on the main aspects of its activities; *

main types of risks inherent financial activities enterprises (a portfolio of financial risks of an enterprise, compiled based on the results of their identification in the context of types of financial activities and main financial transactions); *

grouping types of financial risks according to the degree of likelihood of their occurrence and the possible size of financial losses when a risk event occurs; *

draft budget to neutralize financial risks with calculation of cost effectiveness; *

project of measures (indicating the time frame for their implementation and responsible persons) to ensure the neutralization of financial risks and their monitoring.

The developed document allows us to outline in a concentrated form the principles and mechanisms of the enterprise’s financial risk management policy and its effectiveness.

The risk management process is a complex and multi-level procedure. It can be divided into a number of stages in accordance with the features of the sequence of risk management actions. The identification of such stages is conditional, because in practice they are often implemented simultaneously, and not sequentially, one after another. The risk management scheme is shown in the figure.

The first stage - identification and risk analysis - includes identifying risks, studying their specifics, highlighting the features of their implementation, and studying the amount of economic damage. Without such research, it is impossible to effectively and purposefully carry out the risk management process.

Second stage - analysis alternative methods risk management. Its main goal is to study those tools that can be used to prevent the realization of risk and the impact of its negative consequences.

Analysis of the main approaches to reducing the adverse impact of random events allows us to identify a number of general risk management procedures.

Possible procedures include the following:

1. risk aversion, i.e. a set of measures that make it possible to completely avoid the impact of adverse events;
2. risk reduction, i.e. actions that help reduce adverse consequences. This procedure assumes that the person leaves the risks at his own responsibility, so it is sometimes called risk taking;
3. transfer of risk, i.e. a set of measures that make it possible to shift responsibility for reducing risk and damage to another entity.

The third stage - the choice of risk management methods - is intended to formulate a policy in the field of combating risk and uncertainty. The need for such a selection procedure is associated with the different effectiveness of risk management methods and the different amount of resources required for their implementation.

The criteria for choosing a method can be different - financial and economic, i.e. addressing the issue in terms of costs and benefits; technical, which reflect the technological capabilities of risk reduction; social, the essence of which is to reduce risk to a level acceptable to society.

The fourth stage is the implementation of the selected risk management method. The content of this stage is the implementation of decisions made at the previous stage on the implementation of certain risk management methods. This assumes that private management and technical decisions are made and implemented as part of this process.

The fifth stage - monitoring results and improving the risk management system - provides feedback in the specified system. This is very important stage, since it is he who ensures the flexibility and adaptability of risk management, as well as the dynamic nature of this process.

At this stage, first of all, information about risks is updated and replenished, which is an important condition risk analysis at the first stage. More complete, up-to-date data enables adequate and timely risk management decisions to be made.

On this basis, the effectiveness of the measures taken is assessed. The difficulty of such an assessment is that during the analyzed period the risks may not materialize. Therefore, it is often necessary to compare real security costs with hypothetical losses.

The purpose of assessing the effectiveness of the measures taken is to adapt the risk management system to changes in the operating conditions of the environment and the totality of risks affecting the population, the environment and society. This occurs by replacing ineffective activities with more effective ones within the allocated budget for the risk management program, as well as by changing the organization of the implementation of the risk management program.

Risk management methods

The most common risk management methods include the following.

Risk Rejection

There are major risks that may be impossible to mitigate. But even if they can be partially reduced, this practically does not reduce the danger of the consequences of their implementation. Therefore, the best method of protecting against them may be to try to avoid all possibilities of their occurrence altogether. An example of the application of this method of risk management at the individual level is a person’s conscious refusal to skydive due to the danger of this activity.

Everyone is interested in risk because risk is associated with success. People define success differently, but no one disputes that on the way to it you have to take risks. Carrying out any activity is impossible without risk. In fact, business is all about taking risks in hopes of obtaining an acceptable reward.

Risk management is an integral part of the overall management of any organization that seeks to survive and achieve its mission. Risk management may even be a systemic goal for some organizations. In this case, risk management can become part of operational management. For example, what is the purpose of the army in modern world? Fight against war by all means, including military means. In this case, risk management is the main goal, and warfare is an auxiliary goal.

What does enterprise risk management include?

Risk Management Processes

Risk management is the processes associated with identification, risk analysis and decision-making, which include maximizing the positive and minimizing the negative consequences of risk events. The project risk management process typically includes the following procedures:

1. Risk management planning - selection of approaches and planning of project risk management activities.

2. Risk identification - identifying risks that can affect the project and documenting their characteristics.

3. Qualitative risk assessment - qualitative analysis of risks and the conditions for their occurrence in order to determine their impact on the success of the project.

4. Quantitative assessment - quantitative analysis of the probability of occurrence in the impact of risk consequences on the project.

5. Risk response planning - identifying procedures and methods to mitigate the negative consequences of risk events and take advantage of possible benefits.

6. Monitoring and controlling risks - monitoring risks, identifying remaining risks, implementing the project risk management plan and assessing the effectiveness of actions to minimize risks.

Risk identification

The risks are many and varied. But when determining the risk profile of any organization, analysts primarily highlight strategic risks. What is this based on?

The development of any company is impossible without tactics and strategy. Even when top managers claim there is no strategy, in reality it is a strategy for short-term adaptation to current changes. Sometimes, for example, in troubled times, this strategy may be correct. If management is simply passive, and this may be beneficial specifically to the current management, then the company inevitably begins to lose its market value under the blows of competitors and random circumstances.

Are management errors possible? Practice shows that the more aggressive the development policy and the more ambitious the company’s management, the greater the likelihood of errors. The possibility of such errors constitutes a set of errors that can be united under a single name - strategic risks.

Taking into account strategic risk means taking into account the possibility of an unexpected event occurring, which reduces the possibility of an unexpected event occurring, which reduces the ability of managers to timely and efficiently develop a company management strategy and implement the management strategy adopted by management (Simons.R.A Note on Identifying Strategic Risk // Harvard Business Scool Review .1999/November.P.1)

The management system may be unable to implement the strategy for reasons arising from:

1) from the process of doing business (operational risk)

2) from the possibility of deterioration of the company’s assets

3) from changes in the competitive situation

4) from loss of good name, loss of reputation, loss of trust.

In order to consistently protect the company from the risk of failure of the adopted management strategy, it is necessary to build a protection system based on a clear way of describing the strategy itself.

Such a tool - strategy mapping as a method of consistent, integral description of an organization's management strategy - was first proposed by Kaplan and Norton in their concept of a balanced scorecard.

The strategy contains a transition from the current state to the desired future. The construction of strategic strategy maps includes the formulation of a strategy and a system of ways to implement it. Detailed descriptions of strategy mapping methods can be found in the books of Norton and Kaplan.

The reference map of any management strategy is shown in Fig. 2.

Even without really understanding the concept, risk managers can draw significant conclusions from this structural diagram.

The assessment of the complex of strategic risks here should be carried out in relation to each element and indicator of success, in turn analyzing the specific formulation of the strategy as aggressive, moderate or non-aggressive. Starting from the top (from general to specific), the management strategy is assessed as a whole according to its degree of focus on increasing the market shareholder value of the company . The risk assessment then shifts to assessing strategies to increase revenue and productivity. Then the strategies for communicating with the clientele, the possibilities of new ideas within the company, as well as the accumulation of experience, training and the development of corporate culture under a new overall strategy are analyzed. If the risks at least for the bottom element turn out to be too high, then the entire strategy may be questionable. In this case, a decision is made on the overly risky element, and then the overall strategy is evaluated and the risk indicators of all elements are re-evaluated.

Detection techniques have been developed for some elements of management strategy early symptoms problems and opportunities. An example of such a methodology is “Managing Strategic Circumstances.” Essentially, this is a preventative way to deal with the risk of falling behind the technological process. The method focuses on the so-called strategic gaps, which are detected by weak qualitative and quantitative symptoms that herald the emergence of new technologies.

The most important strategic risks include the risk of stopping the company's production. For some companies, it is so important that special business continuity plans are drawn up for it. One of the most important indicators of a company's risk resistance is the number of days of downtime, which turns downtime into bankruptcy and exit from business. Sometimes this indicator is difficult to calculate, and sometimes it is obvious. In any case, you need to know it both for the company as a whole and for its key divisions and elements.

The dynamism of the variability of the conditions in which firms operate opens up many opportunities for them, but at the same time causes a number of complex and diverse problems that cannot be solved with traditional approaches to the management of economic and investment activities. Consequently, organizations, in order to survive in a market environment, withstand competition and contribute to economic growth, need to learn how to manage economic and investment activities in conditions of uncertainty, and look for new opportunities to increase the efficiency of information, material and financial resources.

Management of the economic and investment activities of firms in conditions of uncertainty should be carried out as a multi-criteria choice from a number of alternatives, corresponding to the requirement of guarantee or security. The guaranteed result in this case assumes that the adopted decision will not be worse than the specified one in one parameter, and the protected one - that the adopted decision will not be worse than the established one in all specified parameters.

During the preparation of a risk management operation, the following main tasks are solved:

– possible conditions for conducting economic and investment activities are revealed (identified);

– planning of activities is carried out in conditions of environmental uncertainty (in particular, the occurrence of certain risks is forecasted at various stages of operating activities and investment lending);

– methods for managing economic and investment activities are developed that meet the selected criteria;

– personnel are being prepared (a group of risk managers) capable of implementing technologies for managing the risks of investment activities in conditions of environmental uncertainty;

– all tasks related to risk management of economic and investment activities are solved. These are, first of all, issues of assessing and reducing the costs of implementing certain risk management methods and comparing them with the losses that a subject of investment activity may incur if exposed to the risks in question. These are also issues of optimizing information, financial, material and other flows in the risk management system;

– a mechanism for monitoring the functioning of the risk management system is being developed and measures are being implemented to ensure the required reliability of this system (a unique risk-risk management system is being created).

At the stage of conducting investment activity management operations under conditions of uncertainty, the following main tasks are solved:

– methods are implemented that must be applied before the start of investment activities;

– based on the selected criteria, the effectiveness of investment activity management under conditions of uncertainty is assessed;

– if necessary, additional technologies (developed at the preparatory stage of the operation) are used;

– new technologies are quickly developed and applied depending on the situation in the markets;

– mechanisms for financing newly developed and used anti-risk technologies are determined;

– failures in the risk management mechanism of the subject of investment activity are identified and eliminated (the risk-risk-management system is working), etc.

Managing investment activities under conditions of uncertainty is the process of identifying the level of deviations in the predicted result, making and implementing management decisions, allowing to prevent or reduce the negative impact on the process and results of reproduction of random factors, while simultaneously ensuring high level income.

In general, the risk management system for investment activities should be built on the basis of a recurrent approach, i.e. be capable of constant modification using a set of management methods at all stages adequately to incoming information flows, i.e. be adaptive to environmental changes.

It follows that the system should include a block for the development and optimization of methods for managing investment activities, determined by the characteristics of the information environment, which may include:

– management based on control, which assumes that the future is a repetition of the past, providing even within the framework of the implementation of an investment project the possibility of some regulation of activities through the creation of a number of instructions and stationary procedures;

– management based on extrapolation, which assumes that, for a number of parameters, the past serves as the basis for determining the trend of future development;

– management based on the anticipation of changes, which assumes that, on the basis of this foresight, trends in future development can be assumed;

– management based on “flexible emergency solutions”, which assumes the presence of recurrence as the main quality of the system for managing the investment activities of economic systems under conditions of uncertainty.

The system for managing the investment activity of economic systems under conditions of uncertainty includes the process of developing the goal of investment activity, determining the probability of an event occurring, identifying the degree and magnitude of risk, analyzing the environment, choosing a risk management strategy, choosing the risk management techniques necessary for this strategy and ways to reduce it (risk management techniques), implementation of targeted impact on risk.

The first stage is to determine the purpose of investment activity. The purpose of investing capital is to obtain maximum results. Any action involves risk, and is always purposeful, since the absence of a goal makes a decision involving risk meaningless. In this regard, the objectives of risk and risk capital investments must be clear, specific and comparable to risk and capital. That is why risk management of investment activities includes strategy and tactics of risk management . The strategy is based on long-term goals and assessments of the uncertainty of the business situation, on effective methods achieving these goals over an extended period of time. This allows you to correctly select the strategy and techniques for managing investment activities and its implementation, as well as methods for bringing actual results closer to the predicted ones (Fig. 8.1).

Rice. 8.1. Investment management model economic system in conditions of uncertainty

The presented model for managing the economic and investment activities of an economic system under conditions of uncertainty allows us to consider the relationships between economic resources, the structure of the risk management system, and the effective economic development of the subject of investment activity.

The essence of managing economic and investment activities under conditions of uncertainty is the rational organization in space and time of information, material and financial flows, ensuring the best possible orientation of the organization to achieve a balance between the benefits of optimizing risk management, the costs required for this and comparing them with the increase in value organizations.

One of the most important functions of management is creating the conditions necessary for the further successful functioning of the enterprise. That is why in enterprises Western countries The main principle and guideline of management is not profit maximization, but the successful management of risk situations, which in the future ensures the greatest financial stability of business firms.

Risk management is the science and art of managing the risk of investment activities, based on long-term forecasting, strategic planning, development of a sound concept and program of an entrepreneurial system adapted to uncertainty, which makes it possible to prevent or reduce the adverse impact on the results of reproduction of stochastic factors and, most importantly, to ultimately obtain high income.

Strategy predetermines tactics, i.e. a set of methods and techniques used in the specific conditions of a given investment situation to achieve set goals that do not contradict long-term goals. An important point in organizing the management of investment activities in conditions of uncertainty is to obtain information about the environment, which is necessary to make a decision in favor of a particular action. Based on the analysis of such information and taking into account risk objectives, it is possible to correctly determine the probability of an event, including an insured event, identify the degree of risk and estimate its cost.

Based on available information about environment, about the probability, degree and magnitude of risk are being developed various options risky investment of capital and provides an assessment of their optimality by comparing the expected profit and the amount of risk. In the process of developing a strategy for managing investment activities under conditions of uncertainty, it is necessary to:

– determine the maximum permissible level for each individual type of risk;

– identify restrictions (limits) that an investment entity must observe in the course of its activities in order to ensure that the level of risk of its operations does not exceed acceptable;

– to develop a mechanism for managing the organization that would ensure constant monitoring of the current level of risks of investment activities, compliance with limits and their adequacy to the current situation;

– outline a plan of measures that the subject of investment activity must implement to neutralize the consequences of the implementation various types risks in force majeure circumstances.

Despite the presence of a large number of methods for influencing risks and tools that can be used, in principle, four main solutions in this area can be distinguished. Within the framework of these decisions, variations in the choice of tools, degree of impact, etc. are possible, but fundamentally, when analyzing risks, the manager must make the initial choice from these positions.

1. Risk avoidance – refusal to perform certain actions or make decisions characterized by high risk.

2. Control and prevention of risk - own retention of risk with active influence on it on the part of the company, aimed at reducing the likelihood of a risk event or reducing potential damage from the occurrence of a risk event.

3. Retention of risk - used in cases where the level of risk is at an acceptable level for the company, and exposure to this risk is impossible or economically ineffective.

4. Transfer of risk – transfer of risk to third parties in cases where exposure to it by the company is impossible or economically unjustified, and the level of risk exceeds what is acceptable for the company. Risk transfer is carried out through insurance, as well as financial markets, in cases of hedging or through contractual clauses.

In addition to methods of influencing risk, the work analyzes possible tools for influencing risks, among which are:

1) administrative decisions - imply the company’s impact on risk by regulating business processes within the company and making management decisions that would minimize risk. Administrative decisions are otherwise called “internal controls”;

2) financial solutions – decisions on risk transfer and risk financing, which include hedging with derivatives, insurance and self-insurance.

On the tactical management side, success depends on the tools available to the manager in a specific economic, legal and organizational environment. The manager's arsenal can be represented by the following list:

1) risk prevention;

2) risk aversion;

3) impact on the source of risk;

4) reducing the time spent in hazardous areas;

5) conscious and unconscious acceptance of risk;

6) duplication of operations, facilities or resources;

7) reduction of dangerous behavior;

8) reducing the magnitude of potential losses;

9) technical monitoring of the situation;

10) reducing the amount of actual losses;

11) absorption of possible losses by income;

12) distribution of risk among different participants;

13) risk disaggregation;

14) distribution of risks over time;

15) isolation of dangerous mutually reinforcing factors from each other;

16) insurance transfer (transfer) of risk;

17) non-insurance risk transfer;

18) reducing the duration of uncertainty;

19) reducing the likelihood of undesirable events;

20) financial instruments for hedging risks;

21) financial engineering;

22) innovation;

23) proactive methods.

Preemptive methods, in turn, include:

– price regulation;

– quantity control financial leverage;

– limiting the level of risk;

– tax optimization;

– quantity control operating leverage;

– ensuring the possibility of receiving an additional level of risk premium from the investment transaction contract;

– reduction of the list of force majeure circumstances in contracts with counterparties;

– ensuring compensation for possible financial losses through a system of penalties included in contracts;

– improving the management of working capital of an economic entity;

– information and forecast support for investment management (management);

– regulation of accounting and dividend policies;

– planning an optimally effective investment strategy and policy of the economic system;

– control over the degree of risk and correction of risk management decisions (risk monitoring).

The manager's arsenal should be supplemented with the integrated use or partial combination of methods, mechanisms and tools for managing the risks of investment activities.

The interdependence of the economic system makes it possible to involve other agents in the risk management process, in particular, by transferring risk to them before the event occurs. Risk transfer is the most reliable way to manage risk from the point of view of both the economic entity and the entire economy as a whole and is a method of neutralizing asset losses through the transfer of risk to partners in individual business transactions by concluding contracts.

Risk prevention consists of studying each specific type of risk in advance and taking measures to prevent the development of events leading to the realization of the threat and the occurrence of losses. Of particular importance is the prevention of risks in the process of issuing loans, and this is expressed in the preliminary examination of documents submitted by enterprises to obtain loans.

Risk aversion consists of not “visiting” areas or engaging in activities where this type risk operates on a scale that a given investment entity is not able to effectively cope with. This method is the simplest and most radical. It consists in developing measures that completely eliminate a specific type of risk. Avoidance is designed to give up certain expectations, risky processes and shift the risk to others. In practice, it is most often implemented in the form of an economic entity’s refusal to implement an innovative (venture) project, investment transactions associated with high risk, preference in favor of less risky or almost risk-free projects, or minimization of risks (conservative management of assets and liabilities). These include:

– refusal to carry out investment operations, the level of risk for which is excessively high. Despite the high effectiveness of this measure, its use is limited;

– refusal to use high amounts of borrowed capital. Reducing the share of borrowed funds in economic turnover allows you to avoid one of the most significant risks - loss financial stability subject of the economy. At the same time, such risk avoidance entails a reduction in the effect of financial leverage, i.e. the possibility of obtaining an additional amount of profit on invested capital;

– avoidance of excessive use current assets in low-liquid forms (for example, inventories). Increasing the level of liquidity of such assets allows one to avoid the risk of insolvency of an economic entity in the future. However, such risk avoidance deprives an economic entity of additional income from expanding sales of new products and services on credit and partially gives rise to new risks associated with disruption of the rhythm of the operating process due to a decrease in the size of insurance reserves of raw materials, materials, and finished products;

– refusal to use temporarily free monetary assets in short-term financial investments. This measure allows you to avoid deposit and interest rate risk, but generates losses from inflation risk, as well as the risk of lost profits;

– rejection of unreliable partners.

Influencing the risk source involves trying to change the behavior of the risk source so as to reduce the threat posed by it. Reducing the time spent in dangerous areas can be achieved, for example, by setting restrictions, controlling access, and speeding up investment transactions.

Risk acceptance is an understanding and assessment of risk with the ensuing consequences in the event of failure to take measures to protect against it while simultaneously refusing to manage the risk. Organizations consciously take on many regular minor risks, periodically writing off losses. Such a policy is possible only in relation to risks, protection against which is more expensive than predictable losses. Normal reserves for losses are included in budgets for such risks. Duplicating an operation, objects or resources increases their reliability.

Reducing dangerous behavior as a risk management tool consists of fencing off dangerous areas, establishing mutual control over the behavior of employees, additional training and instructing staff, establishing fines and increased insurance rates for individuals and departments that repeatedly commit cost overruns and other losses.

Reducing the magnitude of potential losses consists of setting absolute limits on investment resources located in high-risk areas (for example, restrictions on investing capital in certain industries or regions), trying to gradually reduce these limits to the minimum sufficient for uninterrupted efficient work investor.

The system of approvals and permissions in the decision-making process, in particular, is aimed at ensuring that each professional assesses the risk from his own point of view and in accordance with the limits of financial responsibility. In general, limits are set based on the level of losses that the investor agrees to incur in connection with the realization of risks, and are calculated as the ratio of the volume of acceptable losses and the probability of risk realization.

Technical monitoring of the situation contributes to the assessment and rapid response to such technical risks as changes in technology, deterioration in the quality and productivity of production associated with the project, specific risks of the technology embedded in investment project, errors in design and estimate documentation.

It is possible to influence the risk of investment activity by reducing the amount of actual losses, i.e. preparation for activities in cases where the danger has already materialized. Typically, losses do not occur overnight, but accumulate over a period of time. If commercial organization responds correctly to the first symptoms of the development of an undesirable process that entails losses, then these losses will be less than in the case of delays or incorrect actions. The ideology of situational management, standard and emergency control schemes is quite suitable for developing rules of behavior in unfavorable situations.

Investors apply the principle of reducing the risks of investment activity by absorbing possible losses with income in conditions of high risks. It lies in the fact that each project in one area or industry must be accompanied by another project in another industry or area. Moreover, the growth and decline of these industries and areas must coincide in time. This doesn't mean that recessions will always wipe out earnings; average returns in a developing economy will rise. But the investor's security increases significantly.

Another method is to distribute risks between several participants and move to joint financing of projects. This approach has received great development abroad in last years, when many companies and alliances of investors were created, which brought them large profits in the field of risky investments. The actions of investors under risk conditions will be more effective and will bring them success if these are the actions of large alliances of investors. The distribution of risk across different agents is expressed in the procedural division of dangerous work into different performers, each of which has its own risk characteristics. As a result, some of these agents will be able to avoid their share of the risk, and losses will be reduced. Reducing the degree of risk by distributing it between participants (partners) or transferring part of the risk (for individual financial and other transactions) to participants (partners) of an innovative (venture) project can be achieved by concluding a multilateral agreement or many bilateral contracts regulating liability in the event of project failure (indexation of the cost of products and services; various shapes insurance; pledge of property; system of mutual penalties; providing our own and receiving from counterparties certain guarantees related to the neutralization of negative financial consequences in the event of a risk event). For example, by distributing risk between participants in an innovation (venture) project, an economic entity can transfer to contractors part of the risks associated with failure to fulfill the schedule of construction and installation work, low quality of work, theft of construction materials transferred to them, and some others. For the economic entity transferring such risks, their management consists of redoing the work at the expense of the contractor, paying them amounts of penalties and fines and other forms of compensation for losses incurred.

In modern risk management practice, the following main directions of risk distribution (transfer of part of the risks to partners) have become widespread.

1. Distribution between the enterprise and suppliers of raw materials, materials and components of the risk (primarily financial) associated with the loss (damage) of property (assets) during their transportation and loading and unloading operations. The forms of such risk distribution are regulated by the relevant international rules “INCOTERMS-90”.

2. Distribution of risk between participants in the leasing operation. Thus, with operational leasing, an economic entity will transfer to the lessor the risk of obsolescence of the used (leasing) asset, the risk of loss of technical productivity (subject to established rules operation) and a number of other types of risks provided for by the relevant special clauses in the concluded contract.

3. Distribution of risk (primarily credit risk) between the participants in the factoring (forfeiting) operation, which will be transferred to the relevant financial institution - a commercial bank or factoring company. This form of risk distribution is of a paid nature for the economic entity, but it allows to significantly neutralize the negative financial consequences.

4. Qualitative distribution (transfer of part) of risk. It involves making a decision by the participants of an innovative (venture) project, taking into account the organizational and technical potential of the subject of economic (entrepreneurial) activity and the forms of its presence in the market to expand (narrow) the number of potential investors (participants) innovative project). By joining forces in solving the problem of reducing risks, several economic entities can share both possible profits and losses. As a rule, the search for partners is carried out among those economic entities that have additional financial resources, as well as information about the state and characteristics of the market. For this purpose they can create joint stock companies, financial and industrial groups. The degree of risk distribution, and therefore the level of reduction of their negative financial consequences for an economic entity, is the subject of contractual negotiations with partners, reflected by the terms of the relevant contracts agreed upon with them.

Disaggregation of risk reduces the single amount of risk and is achieved, for example, by issuing revolving loans.

The distribution of risks over time is due to the fact that several dangerous activities should not be carried out at the same time, otherwise the combination of several non-destructive dangers may exceed the financial critical mass of acceptable losses and destroy the subject of investment activity.

Isolating dangerous mutually reinforcing factors from each other is a continuation of the two previous methods. The fact is that some events occurring simultaneously tend to reinforce each other. For example, a decrease in the reputation of the investor-recipient can lead to a decrease in income and deterioration of service, which, in turn, will further worsen the reputation of the investor-recipient. The possibility of such “vicious” circles should be considered a particularly dangerous factor. When developing risk management programs, it is necessary to provide opportunities for breaking such circles in the event of unforeseen circumstances and isolating mutually initiating and mutually reinforcing undesirable processes both in space and time, as well as in other significant organizational parameters.

Insurance risk transfer consists in the fact that the risk compensation is transferred to a professional counterparty-insurer with whom the insurance contract is concluded.

Non-insurance risk transfer differs from insurance in that the risks of the transaction are assumed not by a professional insurer, but by one of the partners. The conditions for risk transfer are determined by clauses to the contract.

Reducing the probability of undesirable events occurring does not reduce the magnitude of possible losses, but their average value over a period of time, because their frequency is reduced. This is important as it allows the organization to reduce the corresponding reserves and transfer funds to more profitable assets. Reducing the duration of uncertainty involves reducing the time spent in the risk area and the relevance of the risk. In other words, this is a reduction in the time of interaction with risk.

The purchase of financial risk hedging instruments involves transactions with securities that rise or fall in price in opposite directions. This is a separate and very specific issue, although its importance and possibilities increase as the stock market develops. In countries with developed market economy and accordingly developed market valuable papers multiple hedging methods are extremely important.

To complete the analysis of methods of influencing risks, we present a table standard solutions by impact on separate groups risks (Table 8.1).

The final stage of the risk management process is to build a system for monitoring management effectiveness and adjust policies and procedures based on the monitoring results.

Table 8.1Typical solutions for impact on various categories risks

The objectives of monitoring are:

– control over execution decision taken about the impact on risk;

– monitoring changes in risk assessment and adjusting risk management methods;

– change control external environment;

– monitoring the effectiveness of the risk impact process (assessing risk reduction and the effectiveness of its financing) and adjusting the applied procedures and tools;

– identification of new risks.

An important factor in the effectiveness of a risk manager is the confidence that the analytical results obtained are as accurate as possible. The correctness of any risk calculation depends on the assumptions and assumptions made in the model. The ability of a risk management system to identify abnormal patterns of behavior of risk factors and bring them into line with available historical data can significantly increase confidence in the accuracy of analytical results. The best option there will be a system that itself will select and optimize the most adequate model for a specific time series. Thus, the following conclusions and recommendations can be made:

1) it is advisable to create a risk management service in the following composition: an information and analytical department, which includes a risk assessment department, a long-term development department; department of planning and risk management with subdepartments of preventive measures, self-insurance, insurance; control and monitoring department with subdivisions for control and monitoring of the integral and residual risks of the organization;

2) the risk management service must be subordinated directly to the first head of the organization;

3) the risk management service (risk management service) should be supplemented with divisional and adaptive organizational structures groups of risk managers - department curators and methodological support groups that produce necessary calculations or detailed studies. This structure becomes more effective because external Relations(risk management service – a division of the organization) are replaced with actually internal ones (direct communication between the organization’s employees).