Social forecasting. Social Forecasting

INTRODUCTION

1.1. Concept of social forecasting

1.2. Social Forecasting Methods

2.1. The concept of social foresight

2.2. Types of social foresight

3.1. Concept and forms of intuition

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

CONCLUSION

List of used literature

Introduction

Foresight, as one of the most important forms of anticipatory reflection of reality, was inherent in humanity at all stages of its existence, starting from the moment it appeared on the historical arena. However, it developed in forms that reflect pre-scientific experience and methods of predicting the future and which exist to this day in the form of clairvoyance, insight, divination, and prophecy. It is these forms of foresight that are exploited by astrology, psychics, charlatanism and hysteria, based both on scientific data and arbitrary speculation.

Elements of the science of the future - futurology - were developed in the ancient world (for example, Thales' prediction of a solar eclipse in 585 BC). As knowledge was enriched, events or phenomena that would inevitably take place were predicted (and came true) more and more often.

The term futurology was proposed in 1943 by the German sociologist O. F-lechtheim as the name of a certain supra-class “philosophy of the future,” which he contrasted with ideology and utopia. In the early 1960s, this term became widespread in the sense of “future history,” “future science,” designed to monopolize the predictive functions of existing scientific disciplines. Since the late 1960s, the term futurology, due to its ambiguity and uncertainty, has been replaced by the term future research.

The purpose of this work is to study intuition and its role in social foresight.

The following tasks follow from the goal:

Expand the concept of social foresight;

Consider intuition and its role in social foresight;

Analyze the forms of intuition in social foresight.

The object of research is intuition. The subject of the study includes the role of intuition in social foresight.

Research methods include analysis and generalization of the role of intuition in social foresight based on the study of information materials.

When writing the work, book publications were used that were recommended by the Educational Methodological Center as textbooks and teaching aids from 1997 to 2007, which contain the main educational material. They reveal the most important theoretical and methodological issues of social forecasting and foresight, reveal the concept and meaning of intuition, as well as its role in social foresight.

CHAPTER 1. SOCIAL FORECASTING

1.1. Concept of social forecasting

Social forecasting is one of the main areas of specific social research, the special object of which is the prospects for the development of specific social processes. In a broad sense, it covers all processes associated with life human society(in contrast to natural, technical, biological processes of a spontaneous, “spontaneous” nature, for example, weather forecasts, crop yields, earthquakes, disease progression, etc.), and includes prospects for the development of social aspects of science and technology, economics, social relations, demographic and ethnic processes, health care and physical culture, public education, urban planning, literature and art, state and law, domestic and foreign policies of states, international relations, military affairs, further exploration of the Earth and space. Accordingly, scientific and technical, medical and biological, socio-economic, military-political and geocosmic directions of social forecasting are distinguished. In a narrow sense, the latter is usually identified with sociological forecasting - the study of the prospects for the development of social relations themselves. A special area is formed by philosophical and methodological problems: epistemology and logic of scientific foresight, methodology and methods for developing forecasts.

In modern conditions, issues of scientific foresight in solving specific promising problems of a scientific, technical, socio-economic, military-political nature are of particular importance.

The effectiveness of forecasting social processes in economic terms is very significant. As recently as 40 years ago, some American firms were able to double or triple the sales of their new products (and therefore their profits) only by promptly recording the data contained in forecasts that were developed by their own research institutions or purchased from firms - “forecast traders”. Every dollar invested in developing forecasts turns into fifty dollars in net profit in a short time. It was then discovered that a well-established forecasting service can significantly reduce the time required to develop various plans, programs, projects, decisions and, most importantly, can significantly increase their scientific level, and therefore their effectiveness.

Among distinctive features social forecasting is distinguished:

The formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract (allowing for a high degree of probability);

It is not prescriptive in nature - the forecast provides information to justify decisions and select planning methods.

Using specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment.

The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

The experience of past years and the scientific achievements of our time make it possible to carry out forecasting, that is, scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of specific social processes with particular accuracy.

Research in the field of social forecasting is in full swing. Already now, on their basis, it is possible to draw a number of conclusions about the individual contours of the near future.

1.2. Social Forecasting Methods

Social forecasting is the identification of development options and the selection of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is working with alternatives, in-depth analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions. It is associated with foreseeing the directions of development of a phenomenon in the future, by transferring to it an idea of ​​how the phenomenon is developing in the present.

Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future: extrapolation into the future of trends and development patterns that are well known in the past and present; modeling of research objects, presenting them in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions; expert's forecast assessment.1

One of the first methods that became widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of establishment (prospect) of the forecast.1 With this approach, the optimal type of functions is selected (taking into account time, conditions, etc.). d.). The use of complex extrapolation formulas, conclusions from probability theory, game theory, etc. has a great effect.

In social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited, since social processes develop along curves close to a logical function. One way to test the reliability of this method would be to extrapolate growth curves “to the point of absurdity.”

Expert methods are used very widely in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and meetings to harmonize opinions and develop informed decisions to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecast object based on processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. Quality expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend critically on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps:

Selection of experts and assessment of their competence;

Drawing up questionnaires for interviewing experts;

Obtaining expert opinions;

Assessing the consistency of expert opinions;

Assessing the reliability of the results;

Drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions is necessary to determine prospects and trends and requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is the Delphi oracle method or the Delphi method. Forecasts obtained using this method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account objective views and the opinions of respondents regarding this future. In this case, intuition plays an important role, which can suggest the right decision, as it is based on the extensive experience of the expert. An intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results and most often the forecasts turn out to be erroneous. It is mainly suitable for making short-term forecasts and predicting local events. But the use of this method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts. Among the disadvantages of this method, the following are noted: cumbersomeness and the need for highly qualified experts.

An important role in social forecasting is played by the Oedipus effect, i.e. the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, during which positive warnings and threats are realized or eliminated. The conclusions obtained in the process of this forecast contribute to the awareness and understanding of the prospects of a particular event and the need to develop measures to ensure that this forecast does not take place.

Forecasts have the ability for self-realization, but only if they form a single chain of needs and interests of people both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of the occurrence of possible changes.

A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which involves obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem being studied.1 This method assumes the complete absence of any preliminary judgment or discussion. It answers the following types of questions: what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; what is the sequence of events; how to monitor the use of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? Particularly significant in this method is the requirement that not a single opportunity should be missed without prior exhaustive research.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecast scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on a real situation, the future state of an object of study, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with determining development prospects, its main lines, as well as identifying the main factors of the background of development and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of goals.

Predictive graphs are also used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, scenarios, and in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

The method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used in social forecasting, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the optimal option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal long-term development option requires determining the optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widely used.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and vary depending on the duration of the forecast period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting and allows us to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most suitable one. Negative traits modeling is the insufficient accuracy and elasticity of models for forecasting, especially for a long period.

The step-by-step process of social forecasting can be presented as follows1:

1. selection of an object of social forecasting;

2. choosing the direction of research;

4. selection of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence that meets the requirement of scientific research;

5. the actual forecasting study;

6. processing of results, analysis of the information received in relation to the research problem;

7. determining the reliability of the forecast.

Social forecasting is based on various methods of studying the objective patterns of scientific, technical and social progress, as well as on modeling options for future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

CHAPTER 2. SOCIAL FORESIGHT

2.1. The concept of social foresight

In modern scientific literature, scientific foresight is usually divided into natural science (prospects for the development of nature as a whole or its individual phenomena) and social (prospects for the development of the individual and society).

Foresight in scientific literature is in most cases interpreted in two senses:

a) as a prediction of certain events;

b) as preferred knowledge about events and phenomena that exist but are not recorded in experience.

This is a contradiction when a phenomenon or event exists (or their existence is possible), but, not being reflected in experience, gives rise to pre- and non-scientific forms of foresight based on the subconscious, on life observations and possible turnarounds human destinies.

Particular mention should be made of pseudo-prediction (prophecy, divination, “revelation”, fortune-telling), when its bearers try to claim such forms of advanced knowledge that are unknown to science, but which are inherent in individual individuals due to their personal characteristics of consciousness and behavior. Thus, astrology strives to interpret experience in a unique way, paying attention to the recording of repeating events in physical space (when determining the location of the luminaries). But the signs of the Zodiac, the luminaries, multiplied by the diversity of human destinies, provide so many options for the development of events that the coexistence of scientific and non-scientific explanations becomes not only possible, but also successfully competing.

In every language, there have long been words denoting various shades of judgment about the future: prophecy, divination, prediction, anticipation, foresight, prediction, etc. different times the meaning of each of these words had a different meaning, not always identical to the modern one. Some of them are synonymous (for example, prophecy and divination, anticipation and divination). But in most cases, each word indicates some feature and has its own, specific meaning.

Thus, the word “foresight” usually denotes the most general, generic concept of judgments about the future, which includes all other varieties of such judgments. At the same time, with the help of this word, as a rule, they emphasize a certain objectivity and validity of such judgments.

“Prediction” has, in general, the same character, but it testifies, so to speak, to a higher degree of activity and at the same time concreteness of judgment, it represents, as it were, a logical conclusion from foresight: a person foresees that events will unfold in such and such a way , and predicts that we should expect such and such.

“Prophecy” in the strict sense of the word is foreknowledge with the help of some supernatural forces, for example, when a person declares that a “revelation of God” has descended on him. Due to the futility of this kind of “foresight,” this word over time acquired an ironic connotation, emphasizing the pretentiousness, subjectivity, groundlessness or failure of a particular prediction.

On the contrary, “anticipation” usually indicates the success, reliability of foresight, and, moreover, not with the help of some supernatural forces, but with the help of the intuition of the person himself, through a correct guess, random or somehow justified.

Discussions that took place in last years on the question of whether another word in this series, namely “forecasting,” has the right to exist, stemmed mostly from a pure misunderstanding: forecasting was completely wrongfully attributed to the meaning of either foresight in general, or prediction and anticipation in particular. Why, really, another synonym when there are already so many of them? But the fact of the matter is that the “forecast” in modern meaning words are not just foresight, but a special type of it, which differs significantly from all other types (especially from prophecy and anticipation) high degree validity, scientific thoroughness, objectivity. Forecasting is not just a statement about the future, but a systematic study of the prospects for the development of a particular phenomenon or process using the means of modern science.

A prediction is always based on a scientific explanation and aims to explain a phenomenon in the future. Prediction is characterized by uncertainty, because it speaks of an event as a possible state, the emergence of a new one.

believes that foresight in the broad sense of the word is obtaining information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena, regardless of their spatio-temporal localization. A similar point of view (with slight variations) is shared by A. Bauer and W. Eichhorn et al.

It is important to emphasize that foresight in all its varieties is a reflection of the future, knowledge about future development processes.

Forecasting means knowledge of the future, and prediction is interpreted as obtaining information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena.

And they believe that a prediction is a description with a given accuracy of the state of an object at a moment in time following the moment of prediction. A prediction turns into a forecast after the point in time for which it was made. In other words, according to the opinion of these authors, a forecast is actually retrospective knowledge about an object, so to speak, a former prediction.

The point of view of those who propose to use the concept of prediction to express the qualitative level of description of the future, the concept of forecast to indicate the quantitative parameters of predicted phenomena, and the concept of foresight as a generic concept for the first two seems more acceptable.

Finally, it should be said about the ambiguity of the concept of foresight. The term foresight is used to refer to both the process of predictive research and the resulting final knowledge about the future. In concepts expressing various modifications of foresight, these two aspects can be shaded using terms such as prediction and forecasting, forecast and forecasting.

2.2. Types of social foresight

In futurological literature, it is generally accepted to divide foresight into prediction of the future and prediction of existing phenomena that are already taking place in the present, but are not yet known.

Also highlighted is the prediction of “existing but unknown” phenomena, which in fact turns out to be a prediction of future discoveries of the existence of these phenomena or their properties. Thus, Mendeleev, strictly speaking, did not predict the existence of certain properties of a number of chemical elements unknown at that time (you cannot predict what already exists), but put forward a hypothesis about their existence, on the basis of which he predicted the possibility of discovering elements with these properties in the future. This foresight was to a certain extent the substantiation of the hypothesis relating to present reality. In the same way, geologists, based on studying the structural features of rock masses and the patterns of their formation, do not predict areas where certain minerals will occur, but based on hypotheses about their location, they predict the possibility of discovering new deposits.

Characterizing foresight in the temporal plane as comprehension of a future that has not yet arisen, which is becoming, we should highlight some of its very peculiar varieties. One of them is retrospective foresight, when predictive thinking moves from the more distant to the less distant or from the past to the present. Here, obviously, it is legitimate to talk about foresight in the event that the subject of cognition conditionally puts himself in the situation that existed at the time of the forecast, and tries to recreate after the fact possible paths of further development in the past in accordance with the real possibilities that then existed, in accordance with those decisions and methods of action that could potentially be made and put into practice under those conditions. Of course, it would be a hopeless exercise to guess “what would have happened if ...”, in the sense of a detailed prediction of the possible social consequences of various decisions, actions, alternative development options in the past. However, such a retrospective foresight, reconstructing previously possible paths of history, is in principle possible and has scientific, theoretical, as well as educational significance.

Foresight carried out from some point in the past to the present, the so-called post-forecast, can also be used to practically test the effectiveness of modern forecasting methods by comparing the results obtained with indicators of the actual course of development. Such testing of predictive research methods based on developments in the past and its results in the present makes it possible to increase the degree of probability and reliability of predicting the future.

The transition from information about a more distant future to information about a less distant future, as well as from the future to the present, can also be considered a type of foresight. The latter occurs in normative forecasting. Here, predictive thinking, in contrast to the traditional search for forecasts, moves as if in the opposite direction - from the future to the present. The starting point is the end points of the development of the social system - the satisfaction of certain social needs and the fulfillment of possible goals. From this final future state, the normative forecast sequentially, step by step, “goes” to the present, fixing possible intermediate stages and at the same time defining the range of possible goals, methods of activity, the choice and implementation of which are necessary to achieve the predicted final result that meets the criteria specified on the basis of social ideals and standards. Although in both cases mental operations take place in a time interval in the direction opposite to the real processes of development, we are talking specifically about foresight, since the object of reflection is the prospects for the future course of events, future directions and results of activities.

There is scientific and unscientific foresight. In addition, one should distinguish between empirical prediction, which occupies an intermediate position between scientific and non-scientific foresight.

Unscientific is a foresight that is based on fantastic, unreal, artificially constructed relationships, often on visions, “revelations”, i.e. such a foresight, the only purpose of which is to manipulate human views and behavior, which has no factual basis. Dreaming, fortune telling, astrology and the like also belong to non-scientific foresight. This group also includes prophecies and social utopias, predictions of a utopian and religious nature.

A prediction is considered scientific if it is the result of a scientific theory, obtained within the framework of this theory, based, first of all, on the foundation of a systematic scientific and theoretical analysis of the laws of social development and the conditions for their implementation.

Only foresight, based on an analysis of real conditions, can be as reliable as possible and penetrate most fully into the possible, probable and necessary trends of the future. But the distinctive feature of scientific foresight is not absolutely accurate and complete knowledge of the future. Such knowledge, as will be seen from what follows, is logically meaningless. What is characteristic of scientific forecasting, first of all, is that it is based on knowledge of objective laws and effective methodology; its results can be checked, corrected, refined and further developed; it is limited to the prediction of what can be predicted as necessary and probable due to its dialectical determination, based on the past and the present.

Empirical is called foresight, which is based on the everyday experience of people, on actual or imaginary relationships and regularity, which, however, is not based on a scientific theoretical basis or assessment of experience, on the study of the patterns of ongoing processes. As an example, we can cite the so-called folk signs. Usually these predictions are doubtful or uncertain. But this does not exclude the fact that they can sometimes be justified either by chance or due to an unknown reflection of actual natural relationships.

For a long time, foresight of this kind played a significant role in human life, appearing in the form of everyday rules. It existed for quite a long time in the conditions of stable and closed dwarf farms with their production and social relations. The situation is different at the present time, which is characterized by continuous changes in the productive forces and a high degree of penetration of science into all aspects of social life.

It should be emphasized the fundamental incompatibility of utopia and scientific foresight, which always gives a dynamic picture in which all predicted circumstances are perceived as moments of one continuous process of development, and the latter can only be understood based on real conditions, contradictions, driving forces and patterns.

Utopianism, like prophecy, provides a frozen, motionless image of the predicted circumstances. In addition, where with scientific foresight there are real relationships and processes (from which the forecast arises), with utopia there are desires, assessments, and moral demands, presented as independent historical forces; they take the place of natural relationships and are perceived as the latter, so that ultimately, utopia is a simple extrapolation of assessments and moral views or depicts subjective desires, assessments and demands as a future reality.

Chapter 3. THE CONCEPT OF INTUITION AND ITS ROLE IN SOCIAL PREDICTION

3.1. Concept and forms of intuition

Intuition is a specific form cognitive process. Through her various forms interaction between sensory and logical cognition takes place. The epistemological functions of intuition lie in a kind of combinatorics of existing knowledge with cryptognosis data and the subsequent transformation of the acquired new knowledge into scientific status. Thus, the effect of intuition extends to the level of scientific knowledge, or more precisely, its result - intuitive knowledge is an important component of the process of obtaining new scientific knowledge.

An epistemological analysis of the intuitive form of the cognitive process involves clarifying the relationship “between the knowledge available at the beginning of the intuitive act and the knowledge obtained as a result of this act, as well as identifying the essence of the epistemological mechanism with the help of which the transformation of “old” (initial) knowledge into new is accomplished.” .

In accordance with the objectives, the main content of the presented concept is that intuition appears in cognition as a process and as a result. Epistemological analysis of intuition as a process comes down to an analysis of the action of its various forms in human cognitive activity. As a result, intuition appears in the form of “intuitive knowledge.”

Most often, researchers refer to the classification proposed by Mario Bunge. The contradictory attitude towards this classification that occurs in our literature prompts us to consider it in detail.

“When we do not know exactly which of the listed mechanisms played a role, when we do not remember the premises or are not clear about the sequence of processes of logical inference of conclusions, or if we have not been sufficiently systematic and rigorous, we are inclined to say that it all happened a matter of intuition. Intuition is a collection of rubbish into which we dump all the intellectual mechanisms that we do not know how to analyze, or even what to exactly name them, or those that we are not interested in analyzing and naming," writes Bunge. He examines the most commonly used meanings of the term intuition, such as quick perception, imagination, shorthand reasoning, and sound judgment. Bunge distinguishes primarily between sensory and intellectual intuition.

Sensory intuition, according to Bunge, has the following forms:

1. Intuition as perception.

Intuition as perception is expressed in the process of quickly identifying an object, phenomenon or sign.

A clear understanding of the meaning and relationship or sign.

Ability to interpret.

2. Intuition as imagination.

The faculty of representation or geometric intuition.

The ability to form metaphors: the ability to show partial identity of features or functions, or complete formal or structural identity of otherwise different objects.

Creative imagination.

Bunge classifies intellectual intuition (intuition as reason) as follows:

1. Intuition as reason.

Accelerated inference is a rapid transition from one statement to another, sometimes with rapid skipping of individual links.

The ability to synthesize or generalize perception.

Common sense is a judgment based on ordinary knowledge and not relying on special knowledge or methods, or limited to the past stages of scientific knowledge.

2. Intuition as an assessment.

Sound judgment, phronesis (practical wisdom), insight or insight: the ability to quickly and correctly assess the importance and significance of an issue, the plausibility of a theory, the applicability and reliability of a method, and the usefulness of an action.

Intellectual intuition as the usual way thinking.

These, according to Bunge, are the main types of intuition. The author makes an attempt to systematize the most frequently used meanings of intuition among the endless hierarchy of interpretations of this concept. However, its systematization is not always consistent.

The main goal of Bunge's entire research is to reveal the enormous heuristic role of intuition as a necessary moment in the process of cognitive activity of a scientist. In this regard, his work is of certain value. Thanks to this study, the main approaches to studying the problem have been outlined, ensuring a constructive attitude towards the latter. According to Bunge, this constructive approach includes:

A careful analysis of the multiple meanings of the term "intuition" and careful use of it.

Empirical and theoretical analysis of intuition within the framework of scientific psychology.

Refining the results of intuition through classifying, enriching and clarifying concept development8.

The listed three positions are really important in developing the problem under study. But the classification of types of intuition proposed by Bunge does not fully meet these requirements.

The problem of classifying intuition represents one of the most difficult moments in the study of the problem as a whole. This is explained by the fact that the object itself, subject to the classification operation, is not subject to the rules necessary, say, for formal classification. Any formal classification presupposes, first of all, a clear, sharp separation of objects of one group from objects of another group. The result of such a classification should be the establishment of some order in the arrangement of these groups themselves, although the established order is often artificial and arbitrary in nature. Classification based on formal principles presupposes some kind of distribution into groups, which is based on the similarity of objects in each group due to the presence general property. It is quite clear that intuition does not lend itself to formal classification, since we can only talk about clarifying the concept and systematizing this area of ​​cognition in order to facilitate orientation in it. Establishing clear similarities and differences between types of intuition does not seem appropriate.

Intuitive cognition is an important area of ​​human cognition, belonging to the field of both scientific and non-scientific cognition. In this section we will be mainly interested in the action of intuition as a process in scientific knowledge, so we will try to start by highlighting the specific characteristics of scientific intuition.

The most characteristic features of scientific intuition include:

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through sensory knowledge of the surrounding world.

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through direct logical inference.

Unaccountable confidence in the absolute truth of the result (this in no way eliminates the need for further logical processing and experimental verification).

The suddenness and unexpectedness of the result obtained.

Immediate evidence of the result.

Lack of awareness of the mechanisms of the creative act, the paths and methods that led the scientist from the initial formulation of the problem to the finished result.

Extraordinary lightness, incredible simplicity and speed of the path traveled from the initial premises to the discovery.

A pronounced feeling of self-satisfaction from the implementation of the intuition process and deep satisfaction from the result obtained.

So, everything that happens intuitively must be sudden, unexpected, immediately obvious, unconsciously fast, unconsciously easy, outside of logic and contemplation, and at the same time in itself strictly logical and based on previous sensory experience.

The peculiarity of intuitive knowledge is that in its epistemological essence it is transformative, combinatorial knowledge, the result of which is intuitive knowledge.

As a fact of knowledge, each type of intuition is an indisputable reality that exists in the sphere of knowledge for all knowers. The human mind, preoccupied with understanding issues related to cognitive activity, also tried to resolve the question of how knowledge generated by experience and possessing relative necessity and universality can lead to knowledge that no longer has relative, but unconditional universality and necessity.

Intuitive cognition as direct differs from rational cognition, which is based on the logical apparatus of definitions, syllogisms and evidence. The advantages of intuitive knowledge over rational knowledge can be presented as follows:

1) the ability to overcome the limitations of known approaches to solving a problem and go beyond the usual ideas approved by logic and common sense, to see the problem as a whole;

2) intuitive knowledge gives the cognizable object in its entirety, immediately “all the infinite content of the object”, allows “to grasp the greatest fullness of possibilities.” At the same time, various aspects of an object are known on the basis of the whole and from the whole, while rational knowledge deals only with parts (sides) of the object and from them tries to put together a whole, to build an endless series of general concepts attached to each other, but due to the fact that such a series is impossible, rational knowledge always remains incomplete;

3) intuitive knowledge has an absolute character, because it contemplates a thing in its essence, rational knowledge has a relative character, since it consists only of symbols;

4) in intuition there is given creative variability, the fluidity of reality, while in the general concepts of rational knowledge only fixed, general states of affairs are thought of;

5) intuitive knowledge is the highest manifestation of the unity of intellectual knowledge, for in the act of intuition the mind simultaneously thinks and contemplates. Moreover, this is not only sensory knowledge of the individual, but intellectual contemplation of the universal and necessary connections of an object. Therefore, as the rationalists of the 17th century believed, intuition is not just one of the types of intellectual knowledge, but its highest form, the most perfect.

Having all these advantages over rational knowledge, intuition, however, also has vulnerabilities: it

1) non-manifestation of the reasons that led to the result obtained,

2) the absence of concepts that mediate the process of intuition, the absence of symbols, as well as

3) confirmation of the correctness of the obtained result.

And although a direct understanding of the connections of an object or phenomenon may be sufficient to discern the truth, it is not at all sufficient to convince others of this - this requires evidence. Every intuitive guess needs verification, and such verification is most often carried out by logical derivation of consequences from it and comparing them with existing facts.

Thanks to the main mental functions(sensation, thinking, feeling and intuition) consciousness receives its orientation. The peculiarity of intuition is that it participates in perception in an unconscious way, in other words, its function is irrational. While differing from other functions of perception, intuition may also have similar features to some of them, for example, sensation and intuition have much in common, and, in general, these are two functions of perception that mutually compensate each other, like thinking and feeling.

Today, there are many disparate approaches to determining the form in which intuition manifests itself, not included in any system.

From the point of view of the subject of perception, these are subjective and objective forms - Subjective is the perception of unconscious mental data of subjective origin. The objective form is the subliminal perception of factual data emanating from an object, accompanied by subliminal thoughts and feelings.

A person’s ability to distinguish and identify objects in the surrounding world and their simple combinations is intuitive. The classic intuitive idea of ​​objects is that there are things, properties, and relations. First of all, we mean objects that are sensually perceived either in the surrounding reality or in reality inner world images, emotions, desires, etc.

Thus, the simplest form of intuition, which plays an important role in the initial stages of the creative process, is sensory contemplation, or spatial intuition. With its help, initial geometric concepts about figures and bodies are formed. The first simple judgments of arithmetic have the same sensory-practical and intuitive character. All elementary arithmetic relations, such as “5+7=12,” are perceived as absolutely reliable.

Conclusions are also taken as immediate evidence, something unconditionally given. Logical analysis takes into account but never rejects this kind of statement. This type of intuition of mathematicians is called “objective” or “praxeological”.

A somewhat peculiar type of intuition is the transfer of features that have general significance for a certain class of objects to new objects of this class. In mathematics it is called “empirical” intuition. In logical terms, empirical intuition is a hidden conclusion from analogy, and it has no more validity than analogy in general. The conclusions obtained in this way are tested using logical analysis, on the basis of which they can be rejected.

Confidence in the results of sensory intuition was undermined after a large number of concepts and theories arose in mathematics that contradict everyday sensory intuition. The discovery of continuous curves that do not have derivatives at any point, the emergence of new, non-Euclidean geometries, the results of which at first seemed not only contrary to ordinary common sense, but also unimaginable from the point of view of intuition based on Euclidean ideas, the concept of actual infinity, conceivable according to analogies with finite sets, etc. - all this gave rise to a deep distrust of sensory intuition in mathematics.

It is now generally accepted that in scientific creativity the decisive role belongs to intellectual intuition, which, however, is not opposed to the analytical, logical development of new ideas, but goes hand in hand with it.

Intellectual intuition does not rely at all on sensations and perceptions, even in their idealized form.

In mathematical reasoning, primarily in elementary discursive transitions, i.e. in conclusions “from the definition”, as well as in conclusions on the logical schemes of transitivity, contraposition, etc., without an explicit formulation of these schemes, there is a so-called “logical” intuition . Logical intuition (reliability) also refers to stable unrealizable elements of mathematical reasoning.

Based on the division of situations of intuitive clarity, two main types of intuition are distinguished: apodictic, the results of which are not subject to revision from the point of view of logic, and assertoric, which has heuristic significance and is subject to logical analysis.

One of the most productive forms of intellectual intuition is creative imagination, with the help of which new concepts are created and new hypotheses are formed. An intuitive hypothesis does not follow logically from facts and relies mainly on creative imagination.

In other words, intuition in mathematical creativity acts not only as a holistic, unifying idea, to a certain extent completing the cycle of research, but also as a guess that needs further development and verification using deductive, evidential methods of reasoning.

Concrete intuition is the perception of the factual side of things, abstract intuition is the perception of ideal connections.

The conceptual one forms new concepts on the basis of previously existing visual images, and the eidetic one builds new visual images on the basis of previously existing concepts.

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

The role of intuition in scientific and, in particular, mathematical knowledge has not yet been sufficiently developed. It is known that intuitive components of cognition can be found in representatives of many professions and in a variety of life situations. Thus, in jurisprudence, a judge is expected to know not only the “letter” of the law, but also its “spirit”. He must pass judgment not only according to a predetermined amount of evidence, but also according to his “inner conviction.”

In philology one cannot do without the development of a “linguistic sense”. Having taken a quick glance at the patient, the doctor can sometimes make an accurate diagnosis, but at the same time he has difficulty explaining exactly what symptoms he was focusing on, he is not even able to realize them, and so on.

As for mathematics, here intuition helps to comprehend the connection between the whole and the parts, before any logical reasoning. Logic plays a decisive role in the analysis of the finished proof, in dividing it into individual elements and groups of such elements. The synthesis of parts into a single whole, and even individual elements into larger groups or blocks, is achieved with the help of intuition.

Attempts at machine modeling of human activity turn out to be secondary in relation to intuitive human activity, based on the synthesis of parts and the whole.

Consequently, understanding mathematical reasoning and proof is not reduced only to logical analysis, but is always complemented by synthesis, and such a synthesis, based on intellectual intuition, is by no means less significant than analysis.

An intuitive hypothesis does not follow logically from facts; it relies mainly on creative imagination. In addition, intuition is also “the ability to see a goal from afar.”

The ideas of intuitionism are so widespread that they are appealed to when analyzing the views of prominent philosophers. According to Husserl's phenomenological description, the idea of ​​succession - central to the concept of number - is an essential feature of the process of intuition.

In history, situations have often arisen when the intellect was unable to penetrate the essence of a process or phenomenon, and intuition came to the rescue as the “highest revelation”, as an unconscious penetration (comprehension) of the future with the help of instinct and other components of the subconscious.

The theory of intuitionism proceeded from the fact that intuition is irrational, that it is necessary to focus not so much on reason, thinking, but on “insightful sympathy.”

Further study of intuition showed that it can manifest itself, firstly, in a form based on feelings. This is quite typical for interpersonal communication both in the family and at work, when the smallest details in people’s relationships gradually form a general impression of the actions and behavior of other people, on the basis of which expectations of future events and possible changes are built.

Secondly, intuition in social foresight is based on rational thinking (“intellectual intuition”). Therefore, insight does not come just like that, but as a specially meaningful reality, knowledge of a huge amount of information, as, for example, it happened during the discovery of the periodic table of elements.

At the same time, it is necessary to know the limitations that accompany intuition as a method of cognition, as a form of social foresight. Intuition can acquire the strength of prejudice and delusion if, being effective in relation to one social process, it is unquestioningly transferred to other social processes and phenomena.

Intuition can turn into projection if it is not based on a significant information base. In this case, it becomes akin to charlatanism, which operates with random, little interconnected information, relying on speculation and arbitrary interpretation of events that come to hand.

In this regard, it is important to understand the role and significance of innate ideas, which are given to thinking initially, are not acquired from experience and cannot be changed on the basis of experimental knowledge. Usually this:

1) ready-made ideas or concepts that people operate as true;

2) ideas embedded in thinking as potential abilities and inclinations.

The main thing is that these opportunities are realized, seen and supported, and also used in deciding the future of a particular social process or phenomenon.

It is the use of intuition (based on a large amount of scattered data) that allows us to assert that in the 21st century social confrontations will shift from interracial and interethnic contradictions in the direction of religious confrontation (and even religious wars) between the largest faiths of the world. As for the sociology of management, there is no doubt that intuition is used by almost every leader (consciously or spontaneously), including when solving not only operational, but also long-term problems of the development of their organization. And the more a leader knows the merits and limitations of intuition, the more successfully he will apply it in social foresight.

Conclusion

Foresight is concretized in two forms: in the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive), and in a related form, related to the category of management - pre-indicative. Prediction implies a description of possible prospects, states, solutions to problems of the future. Prediction is associated with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activities of the individual and society.

Prediction takes the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition and subconscious. Prediction (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean with this approach a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Forecasting is not about trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is important). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of future phenomena, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chance, that future phenomena require a probable approach, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach can forecasting be effectively used to select the most likely or optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts must precede plans, contain a pre-assessment of the consequences of fulfillment (or non-fulfillment) of plans, and cover everything that cannot be planned. A forecast and a plan differ in the way they handle information about the future: a probable description is a forecast, a directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. The forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But for a plan to be effective, it must be preceded by a forecast, if possible continuous, allowing scientific substantiation of this and subsequent plans.

They strive to foresee, predict, anticipate, predict, forecast, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions.

Methods of social foresight are still in search, in the process of creative development and testing by time, which, undoubtedly, gradually enriches the arsenal of this stage of social management.

List of used literature

1. Berger into sociology. Humanistic perspective. M., 1996.

2. Bestuzhev - Lada to the future. – M.: Mysl, 1968.

3. Bestuzhev-Lada justification of social innovations / -Lada. - M.: Nauka, 19 p.

4. Bondarenko social forecasting: (Training manual) / ; Dalnevost. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 19с.

5. Krapivensky knowledge // Krapivensky philosophy. - M., 1996. - P. 293-351.

6. Kurbatov design: Textbook. manual for universities / , . - Rostov n/a: Phoenix, 20s.

7. Modeling of social processes: Textbook. allowance. - M.: Publishing house Ros. econ. acad., 19с.

8. Forecasting and planning in market conditions: Textbook. allowance / Ed. , . - M.: UNITY-Dana, 20 p.

9. Romanenko and economic forecasting: Lecture notes /. - St. Petersburg: Publishing House, 2000. – 62 p. - (Higher professional education).

10. Sorokin trends of our time /; Per. from English and preface . - M.: Institute of Sociology. RAS, 19 p.

11.Stegny and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: Perm State Technical University, 1991.

12. Tikhomirov socio-economic forecasting / , . - M.: Publishing house VZPI: Rosvuznauka, 19 p.

13. Toshchenko: General course /. – 2nd ed., add. and processed – M.: Yurait-Izdat, 2004. – 527 p.

15. Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicity /. - M., 19с. - (New in forecasting: theory, methods, experience).

Bestuzhev - Lada into the future. – M.: Mysl, 1968. pp.

Bestuzhev - Lada into the future. – M.: Mysl, 1968. – P.10.

1 Social work: Textbook. – Rostov n/d, 2003. – P. 269.

1 Toshchenko: general course. – M., 2004. – P. 438.

1 Toshchenko: general course. – M., 2004. – P. 441..

1 Technologies of social work: Textbook. – 2002. – P. 108.

Bestuzhev - Lada into the future. – M.: Mysl, 1968. –S. 13 .

Stegny and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: Perm State Technical University, 1991. – P. 78

Stegny and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: Perm State Technical University, 1991. – P. 67.

Stegny and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: Perm State Technical University, 1991. – P.70.

Stegny and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: Perm State Technical University, 1991. – P.74.

Berger into sociology. Humanistic perspective. M., 1996. – P.78.

Bondarenko social forecasting: (Training manual) / ; Dalnevost. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 1998. – P.14.

Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicity / . - M., 1992. – P.45.

Under forecasting methods is understood as a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of endogenous (reflecting the object’s own properties) and exogenous (determined by the influence of the forecast background) significant variables of the forecast object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon under consideration, to derive probabilistic judgments of a certain reliability regarding the prospects for their development ( according to R.V. Lenkov).

According to estimates of domestic and foreign scientists, today there are 150-200 various methods scientific forecasting. However, the number of methods that can be called basic and most common in the practice of social prognosis is much smaller and reaches 15-20.

The extreme diversity of methods was due to the uniqueness and complexity of social systems. On the one hand, in social forecasting it is necessary to obtain high-quality meaningful information about an object, and on the other hand, the possibility of further formalizing it to obtain quantitative estimates and statistical data.

Forecasting methods can be classified according to various criteria and grounds: a) according to the degree of formalization; b) principles of action; c) methods of obtaining and processing information; d) directions and purposes of forecasting; e) the procedure for obtaining the parameters of the forecast model, etc.

Traditional social forecasting uses methods such as extrapolation, modeling, and the method of expert assessments. However, today the palette of methods is so extensive that it is necessary to classify them (Table 9.2).

Now briefly about each of them.

Very widely used in forecasting expert methods- starting from analytical notes and round table meetings in order to harmonize opinions and develop an informed decision to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecast object based on processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. Quality expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend critically on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert opinions, which includes the following stages: selection of experts and assessment of their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessing the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Table 9.2

Forecasting methods (based on materials by R.V. Lenkov)

Expert	Intuitive	Individual expert assessments
		Collective expert assessments
	Analytical	Script writing method
		Delphi method
		Morphological analysis
		Goal tree
		Matrix methods
		Analogy methods
Factual	Statistically	Extrapolation methods
		Interpolation methods
		Correlation and regression methods
	Leading	Patenting dynamics methods

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them - Delphi method, which involves a complex procedure for receiving and processing responses. This method was developed in 1950-1960. in the United States to predict the impact of future scientific developments on methods of warfare. Features of the method are correspondence, multi-level, anonymity. Its essence is to use a series of sequential actions - surveys, interviews, brainstorming - to achieve maximum consensus in determining the right solution. Analysis using the Delphi method is carried out in several stages, the results are processed by statistical methods (Fig. 9.6).

The peculiarity of the method is that a certain amount independent experts(often unrelated to each other and unaware of each other) is better at assessing and predicting the outcome than a structured group of experts. The method excludes direct contact between experts, and therefore, group influence and conformity that arise during joint work allow one to avoid open clashes between holders of opposing positions, and make it possible to conduct a survey extraterritorially, without gathering experts in one place (for example, via e-mail).

Forecasts obtained using the Delphi method are based on research and reliable knowledge, taking into account the views and opinions of experts regarding the future state of the object. In this case, intuition plays an important role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the experience of an expert. At the same time, the study of intuitive forecasts reveals that “they are rather chaotic scraps of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts” (E. Jantsch, 1974).

Script writing method is based on determining the logic of a process or phenomenon in time with different conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of development of the forecast object, identify the main background factors and formulate criteria for assessing the upper levels of the goal tree. The value of the scenario is higher, the lower the degree

Rice. 9.6.

uncertainty, i.e. the greater the degree of agreement between expert opinions on the feasibility of events, the development of the process, etc. When writing scripts, some condition is required. For example: in what direction can the social development of Russia go if the tax law works, if there is quality education, if the influence of the shadow economy decreases, if crime decreases.

Method of morphological analysis- an orderly way of considering an object and obtaining systematizing information on all possible options for its development, based on experience and intuition. Includes the following techniques:

• ? systematic consideration of the characteristics of the object;
• ? the desire not to miss any of them;
• ? do not discard anything without first examining it.

As a result, new information about the object being studied is created and an assessment of all possible alternatives is expressed.

Extrapolation method - its essence consists in constructing a series of (statistical or logical) indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of the forecast prospect. In social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited. This is due to a number of reasons. Social processes do not always develop along curves close to logical-mathematical functions. Failure to take this into account leads to simplified forecast schemes and, accordingly, to serious errors.

Plays a huge role in social forecasting morphological synthesis, which provides for obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem being studied. This method involves the complete absence of any pre-judgment or evaluation. This method answers the following types of questions: 1) what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; 2) what is the sequence of events; 3) how to monitor the use of all means, all methods, all stages of solving this problem? But what is especially significant in this method is the requirement not to miss a single opportunity, not discarding anything without preliminary exhaustive research.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, a significant role is played by forecast scenarios. WITH with their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on a real situation, the future state of the object of interest - a social process or phenomenon - can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with determining the prospects and main vectors of development, as well as identifying the main factors of the development background and criteria for assessing the levels of goal achievement.

In addition, it is used structural-logical forecasting. This method is associated with the need and possibility of solving the problem while maintaining the functions, but changing the structure and parameter values ​​of the forecast object during the lead time. In this case, qualitative logical and quantitative information and mathematical graph theory are used. Predictive graphs can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, etc. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, development of a scenario, and in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

Goal tree- a forecasting method, which consists in dividing the final goal into a number of components, each of which is also divided into more specific ones, etc. Using this method allows you to systematically trace the order of movement towards a given goal and develop the desired sequence of steps and stages of progress.

Simulation method is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the most effective option for given conditions. The model is important tool scientific abstraction, which makes it possible to isolate, isolate and analyze the characteristics of an object that are essential for the researcher, its properties, the relationship of elements along the “cause-effect” chain, structural and functional parameters. A model always simplifies reality; therefore, to model a phenomenon means to describe it in a generalized form: to reproduce the functions of an object (“functional analogy”), to reveal the internal structure (“structural analogy”), or to evaluate the dynamics of its development as a whole (“analogy of relations”, “analogy external form”, “subtract analogy”) (according to G.Ya. Bush).

Predictive models have their own characteristics, which consist primarily in the fact that the expected, upcoming development of an object is modeled. The model here acts as some kind of auxiliary hypothesis, so its construction has additional difficulties.

The task of choosing the optimal long-term development option requires determining the optimality criterion, which should reflect efficiency as the dependence of obtaining the maximum result from the minimum expenditure of resources. The modeling method allows us to consider a system that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled. The modeling method is based largely on mathematical modeling, however, all these methods are probabilistic in nature and vary depending on the duration of the forecast period. Undoubtedly, the use of models increases the accuracy of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and select the most appropriate one. However, as a method, modeling may suffer from insufficient accuracy and elasticity in forecasting, especially over a long period.

The advantages and disadvantages of all methods are described in great detail by R.V. Lenkova. A group of analytical modeling methods is considered, in his opinion, to be a fairly effective means of predictive research. The advantage of this group of methods, which distinguishes it, in particular from methods of intuitive forecasting, is that the objectivity of the forecast increases, the possibilities for considering various options development of the facility. However, with formalization, much remains outside the scope of analysis, and the greater the degree of abstraction, the poorer the model itself.

A significant addition to the traditional, classical methods is the method trend modeling. A trend characterizes the basic pattern of movement in time, the existing dynamics of the development of an object as a whole, to some extent free from random influences.

Recently they have become widespread complex forecasting, social forecasting in which it represents only one of the directions. Complex forecasting systems include one of the latest forecasting technologies Forsyth, or creative technology to influence the future.

Forsythe (from English, foresight- look into the future) - one of the newest foresight technologies technological processes, future development of phenomena of a technical, social, mental nature. Originating in the 1950s, it is becoming increasingly widespread nowadays. In fact, this is a tool that links algorithms of various forecasting methods (Delphi method, script writing, etc.) with general approaches to managing the socio-economic development of society and the interests of national business.

A feature of Foresight is an active forecast, which includes elements of effective influence on the future, presupposing active knowledge and vision of the medium and long term, leading to the formation of strategic areas of scientific research and the emergence of basic technologies aimed at obtaining the greatest economic and social benefits (B. Martin ).

The first large-scale initiatives to identify priority areas for the development of science were undertaken in the 1950s. American corporation RAND this idea was later picked up in Japan, where, starting in 1970, large-scale studies of the long-term prospects for the development of science and technology were carried out every five years. In the early 1980s. A national project to develop “critical technologies” was launched in the United States. And by the mid-1990s, many countries in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, including countries with transition economies, joined the search for priorities for innovative development.

The basis for assessing future options is expert assessments. The Foresight methodology incorporates dozens of traditional and fairly new expert methods. At the same time, they are constantly being improved, techniques and procedures are being developed, which ensures an increase in the validity of forecasting the prospects for scientific, technical and socio-economic development. The main vector of development of the methodology is focused on a more active and targeted use of the knowledge of experts participating in projects. Typically, each foresight project uses a combination of various methods, including expert panels, the Delphi method (surveys of experts in two stages), SWOT- analysis (used in the strategic planning system), brainstorming, scenario building, technological road maps, relevance trees, analysis of mutual influence, etc. To take into account all possible options and get a complete picture of the phenomenon of interest, as a rule, a significant number of experts are involved. Thus, in the Japanese long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, carried out every five years, more than 2 thousand experts participate, representing all the most important areas of development of science, technology and engineering, and more than 10 thousand experts participated in the latest Korean project.

Foresight is a much more comprehensive approach than traditional forecasting, since it allows for an assessment of possible prospects for innovative development, outlining not only the possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, but also the likely effects on the economy and society ; specific foresight projects include conducting surveys of interested population groups (residents of the region, youth, etc.) in solving their problems or the problems of a particular region; Foresight is also aimed at the desired result, the development of practical measures that ensure the optimal trajectory of innovative development.

The main principles of the Foresight toolkit are:

• ? involvement (commitment) of social forces (business, scientific community, government bodies and civil society) in discussing and comparing long-term forecasts, development strategies, developing a more complete integrated vision of the future, achieving consensus and agreeing on ways to achieve the future;
• Sokolov A.V. Foresight: a look into the future // Foresight. 2007. No. 1. P. 8-15.
• Penkov R.V. Social forecasting and design: [textbook, manual for bachelors in areas of training 040100 “Sociology”, 080200 “Management”] / R.V. Lenkov. - M.: TsSP i M, 2013, p. 89-90.

There are three main specific methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, and examination.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and examination is quite conditional, since forecasting models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. The development of forecasts also uses methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

1. Extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the extension of conclusions drawn from studying one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and conditions, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and present will continue.

An example of extrapolation: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is made up of the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future population size, its age, sex and family structures, etc. Using this method, future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, and characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates can be given in periods that are several times distant from the present decades.

Using computer programs (Excel, etc.) you can post-
draw extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the existing formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.

2. Modeling.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from real social object on its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially one that is dangerous for people. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist of changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

3. Expertise.

A special method of forecasting is examination. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of difficult to formalize(or poorly formalized) tasks. Having arisen in connection with programming problems, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain problem that makes other methods of its research, except for examination, ineffective. As we find a way to describe a problem using formal means, the role of precise measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of using expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is the study of a difficult-to-formalize problem, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing an opinion) of a specialist who is able to compensate for the lack or lack of systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on “common sense”.

A social project is subject to examination throughout its development and implementation.

At the concept development stage, many indicators are established by experts by which the effectiveness of the project will be measured.

The assessment of project viability is largely based on expert opinions both in relation to the project and in relation to the social environment in which it is being implemented.

Diagnostic and prognostic research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.

When considering the prepared text of the project by competition commissions, investors, government bodies and authorities local government, other organizations that make management decisions on the project also conduct an examination.

The project is expertly assessed as part of ongoing monitoring of its implementation.

Finally, the completion of the project, establishing whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also requires examination.

If we proceed from the essence of the concepts developed by these authors, then management appears as a conscious social process, based on reliable knowledge of the systematic influence of the subject of management (managed subsystem) on the social object (managed subsystem) through decision-making, planning, organization and control necessary for to ensure the effective functioning and development of the social system (organization), achieving its goal

Modern management is guided by several fundamental principles:

1. The principle of organic interdependence and integrity of the subject and object of management. Management as a process of purposeful and organizing influence of a subject (control subsystem) on an object (team, organization, technical system, etc.) should constitute a single complex system that has one goal, connection with the external environment, feedback from the goal to the action aimed to achieve it.

2. The principle of state legality of the management system of an organization, company, institution. Its essence is this: the organizational and legal form of the company must meet the requirements and norms of state legislation.

3. The principle of ensuring internal legal regulation of the creation, functioning and development of the organization. All activities of the organization must be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the internal charter (constituent agreement), the content of which must comply with the legislation of the country.

4. Principle of hiring a manager. In accordance with this requirement, the issue of appointing or selecting a manager is decided. This is determined by the content of the activities, goals and objectives of the manager.

5. The principle of unity of specialization and unification of management processes. Specialization increases its effectiveness. However, this cannot always be used due to the low repeatability of management processes. Therefore, specialization must be complemented by the universalization of management and the development of general methods.

6. The principle of multivariate management decisions. This principle is dictated by the need to make a choice of one rational and effective solution from a variety of possible, including alternative, solutions to perform the functions of the system and achieve its goal.

7. The principle of ensuring the stability of the system in relation to the external environment.

The stability and stability of the management system is determined by the quality of strategic management and operational regulation, leading to better adaptability of the system (organization) to changes in the external environment, including unfavorable ones.

8. The principle of mobility of the management process. Along with stability, management must be mobile, i.e. quickly and without any particular difficulties adapt to changes in the internal environment of the organization (company) and the external environment - consumers of goods and services, market conditions, and scientific and technical changes.

9. The principle of control automation. The higher the level of management automation, the higher the quality of the management process and the lower the costs. The condition for automation of management is the development of unification and standardization of elements of the management system, production, and specialization of functions performed.

10. The principle of unity of leadership. The essence of this principle can be expressed as follows: in one organization, be it an industrial enterprise, a trading company, a scientific institution, there must be one manager and one program for a set of operations pursuing the same goal. The famous French specialist in the field of management theory, Henri Fayol, noted that the point is not a lack or excess of principles, but that one must be able to operate with them.

Methods of social forecasting.

Types of social forecasts

Social Forecasting Methods

Concept and types of social forecasting

Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security

Social Forecasting- this is a special study about the likely prospects for the development of a social object. Moreover, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social layer, and the social state of an individual.

The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:

The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;

The means and ways to achieve this goal are determined.

Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-cultural, sociological, etc.

Social Forecasting Features:

1. orienting involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them

2. normative means identifying the most important trends social development,

3. precautionary involves identifying and describing possible negative consequences in likely development trends.

General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation, extension of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoration of the value of a function at an intermediate point based on its known values ​​at neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogy, hypothesis, experimentation and modeling - transfer of research activities to another object, acting as a substitute for the object being studied.

Interscientific, focused on collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :

1. brainstorming method represents a collective expert assessment of a predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas and scientific schools and is aimed at bringing together expert positions.

2. Delphi method distinguished by the anonymity of the work of experts and written form ratings.

To private scientific methods social forecasting usually includes expert surveys, testing, etc.

I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:

1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (accepted as given) of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what ways to achieve the desired result?

3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.

II. By lead time The following types of forecasts are distinguished:

Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;

Short-term forecast with a lead period from 1 month to 1 year;

Medium-term forecast with a lead period from 1 year to 5 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead period from 5 years to 15 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead period of more than 15 years.

III. By scale of forecasting highlight:

World forecasts;

State forecasts;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;

Industry forecasts;

Regional forecasts;

IV. By object of study differ:

-natural history forecasts(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological

-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;

-social forecasts, which cover various spheres of human activity and relationships between them.

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Institute (faculty) Humanitarian Institute

Department of Sociology and Social Technologies

COURSES OH PROJECT

discipline: Fundamentals of social forecasting and design

on the topic: Modern methods of social forecasting

Completed by a group student

2Sat-00-42 op group

Sociology

Strelnikova Zhanna Yurievna

Supervisor

Ilyasov Adan Aladinovich

assistant professor

Cherepovets, 2015

Introduction

Chapter 2. Forecasting methods and their classification

Conclusion

Bibliography

Annex 1

Appendix 2

Introduction

A forecast is a prediction, a prediction based on certain data. A plan is an order of work planned for a certain period. Forecasting and planning are conditions for the successful operation of any organization.

Research in the field of forecasts began in the 1950s, at which time simple forecast models began to be freely used. Since the beginning of the 70s, forecasting methods have been replenished and developed at a rapid pace. Two circumstances play a leading role in this:

* economic crises of the late 20th century. forced economists and managers in different countries to find new correct methods of management;

ѕ the rapid spread of information technology and computer technology, these tools have made future analysis and forecasting accessible to the public.

Forecast is the scientific and analytical stage of the planning process.

The forecast determines the possibilities within which realistic planning tasks for the development of the economy or the work of an organization can be set.

Social forecasting is based on various methods of studying the objective patterns of scientific, technical and social progress, as well as on modeling options for their future change in order to create, justify and optimize promising solutions.

The relevance of the topic of the work lies in the fact that forecasting is needed for practical planning of economic and social processes: without short-term and long-term forecasts of the political and economic situation, it is impossible to develop an effective system of actions.

The beginning of social forecasting in foreign classical sociology and social philosophy was laid at the beginning of the twentieth century by the works of such famous researchers as P. Harting, E. Howard, S. Richet, G. Tarde, G. Wells and others.

The beginning of the study of issues of social and managerial forecasting in Russia dates back to the 60s - 70s of the 20th century in the works of scientists such as V.G. Vinogradov, A.I. Gendin, S.I. Goncharuk, G.M. Dobrova, V. Kutsenko .I., Lisichkina V.A., Ozhegova Yu.P., Rumyantseva A.M., Rutkevich M.N. and etc .

Nowadays, forecasting plays a significant influence in managing the social and economic processes of the state. Issues of forecasting trends in social, cultural and economic development of Russia are presented in the publications of scientists: Abalkina L.I., Arinina A.N., Volkova Yu.E., Zhukova V.I., Zhuravleva G.T., Ivanova V.N. , Katulsky E.D., Koptyug V.A., Kortunova S.V., Kudrova V.M., Maltseva V.A., Melnikova E.N., Nayborodenko N.M., Osipova G.V., Osadchey G. I., Pavlenok P.D., Rimashevskaya N.M., Safronova V.M., Serebryannikova V., Khlopyeva A., Chartaeva M.A., Yadova V.A., Yakovets Yu.V., Yanovsky R. G. and others.

The main works in the field of social forecasting were “Window to the Future: modern problems social forecasting" by I. Bestuzhev-Lada (1970); "Foresight and purpose in the development of society: philosophical and sociological aspects of social forecasting" by A. Gendin (1970); "Methodological problems of social forecasting" edited by A. Kazakov (1975); "Issues of forecasting social phenomena" edited by V. Kutsenko (1978) and others.

Object: social forecasting as a science.

Subject: methods of social forecasting.

Goal: To reveal the essence of modern forecasting methods.

Tasks:

1. Reveal the origins of social forecasting as a science;

2. Consider the classification of social forecasting methods;

3. Identify the features of modern methods of social forecasting.

Chapter 1. Theoretical and methodological aspects of social forecasting

1.1 Social forecasting as a method of scientific knowledge

Modern social forecasting began with works that appeared in the late 40s (J. Bernal, N. Wiener). At this time, the idea of ​​a scientific-technical revolution was being developed, the effect of using search and normative forecasts in managing social processes was discovered.

In Russian science, attempts at forecasting began in the 20s and early 30s, but the lack of a well-founded methodology cast doubt on these forecasts. In the USSR, forecasting began to develop in the second half of the 60s, which is associated with the work of such scientists as E.A. Arab - Ogly, I.V. Bestuzhev - Lada, V.A. Lisichkin, T.M. Rumyantsev and others, when the “boom of forecasts” reached Moscow. Then it was destroyed in the late 60s and during the 70-80s. began to develop in two ways: official (as part of the “Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technological Progress,” which served as a kind of scientific cover for voluntaristic planning) and unofficial (in one of the committees of the Union of Scientific and Engineering Societies). In 1989-90 both branches came to a fallen state. In the early 90s. Attempts are being made to renew this area of ​​future research. Translated from Greek, “prognosis” means “foresight”, “prediction”. In the modern interpretation, the meaning of the word “forecast” is used as the final result of scientific foresight: a scientifically based judgment of an applied nature about the development of an object in the future, and forecasting is an action associated with the development of a forecast through special scientific research into specific prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

In the literature, there are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The most widespread point of view is I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, which is based on the fact that the forecast does not provide for solutions to the problems of the future. Its purpose: to contribute to the scientific explanation of plans and decisions. Forecasting will tentatively determine the possible set of necessary ways and means for implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, some authors believe that a forecast must mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of confidence. Its difference from foresight is that foresight is interpreted as an apodictic (non-probabilistic) statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is not difficult to notice that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as a reason for distinguishing terms.

There are other points of view. According to the view of K. Schuster, the forecast contains a specific character and it is invariably associated with the “calendar”, that is, with certain quantitative estimates. Accordingly, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under known conditions as predictions. A. Schmidt and D. Smith believe that a forecast should be understood as a quantitative prediction. Thus, a “line of demarcation” is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.

D. Johnson makes an unusual conclusion. He believes that prediction should be considered the prerogative of the physical sciences, since it requires the application of a “comprehensive law.” Since the social disciplines have little basis for formulating laws of this type, they are limited to forecasts reflecting realistic or probable combinations of assumed guidelines and initial conditions. Forecasts of social disciplines, according to D. Johnson, act as “substitutes” for predictions of more exact sciences.

Social forecasting is a special study about the likely prospects for the formation of a social object. In this case, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social layer, and the social state of an individual. The purpose of forecasting is not just to predict certain phenomena, but to promote a more effective impact on them in the right direction. In the process of scientific forecasting, a solution to 2 problems is found: 1) the goal of the possible development of the object is determined and motivated, 2) the means and methods of achieving this goal are determined. The subject of social forecasting is social phenomena and processes, but it is impossible to fully foresee and predict their further development; for this reason, forecast descriptions are always conditional and can only be close to reality. .

Social forecasting functions include:

1. orienting - the choice of socially significant goals and the means by which they are achieved,

2. normative - identifying the main directions of social development, the dynamics of social needs and the likelihood of their satisfaction,

3. preventive - highlighting and describing possible negative consequences in probable development trends.

The practical purpose of forecasting is the organization of substantiated proposals, projects, programs, recommendations and assessments about:

- in what direction is it preferable to develop objects in the area under study (social protection, culture, healthcare, education, youth problems, spiritual and moral processes, etc.);

- how development can actually proceed;

- what is the mechanism for overcoming negative trends.

1.2 Concept and essence of social forecasting methodology

Social forecasting is focused on making changes in the social sphere of an individual and society and involves one of the manifestations of the targeted activities of managers in the development and preparation of various options for solving social problems. The methodology of social forecasting studies the future in ontological, logical and epistemological aspects.

The ontological aspect considers the emergence and development of the future, determines its overall picture, and the factors influencing it.

The logical aspect makes it possible to create a forecast based on dialectical principles, the basis of which is general laws development of nature and society, as well as methods of scientific thinking.

The epistemological aspect has the task of finding out how the future is reflected in human consciousness, what are the forms of this reflection, its truth. Being a form of cognition, a forecast from the epistemological side is considered to be a reflection of the pattern and possible ways of forming the predicted processes and phenomena.

Cognition of objective truth in forecasting occurs in the direction from living contemplation to abstract thinking, and from it to practical implementation.

Methodology (concept, doctrine) is a system of principles and methods of organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities, as well as the doctrine of this system. If theory is the result of the process of knowledge, then methodology is the way to achieve this knowledge.

Social forecasting consists of several stages, so at each stage specific cognitive problems are solved. Particularly important for forecasting methodology is the stage of pre-forecast orientation, at which the research concept and conceptual apparatus are developed, the basic methodological principles of analysis and forecast, methods and techniques are determined, hypotheses are formed, which are to be tested during the research.

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods.

When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are identified, allowing them to be structured according to:

1. degree of formalization;

2. principle of operation;

3. method of obtaining information.

The degree of formalization in forecasting methods may vary depending on the object of study; The methods for obtaining forecast information are multifaceted, including:

* methods of associative modeling;

* morphological analysis;

* probabilistic modeling;

* survey;

* interview method;

* methods of collective generation of ideas;

* methods of historical and logical analysis;

* script writing methods.

The most popular methods of social forecasting are methods of extrapolation, modeling and examination.

Extrapolation means extending conclusions affecting one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole, to the future. Extrapolation is based on the hypothesis that previously discovered patterns will operate in the forecast period.

For example, a conclusion about the level of development of a social group can be made from observations of its individual representatives, and about the prospects of a culture - from past trends.

The extrapolation method is diverse - it contains at least five different options. Statistical extrapolation - projection of population growth according to past data - is one of the main methods of modern social forecasting.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout, drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people.

The peculiarity of a mental model is that it can be subject to various tests, which consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be preferable for the creators of the project.

The most used forecasting method is expert assessment. According to the view of E.I. Kholostova, “an examination is a study of a difficult-to-formalize problem, which is carried out through the formation of an opinion (preparing an opinion) of a specialist who is able to compensate for the lack or lack of systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on “common sense.”

There are areas of social life in which it is unrealistic to use forecasting methods other than expert ones.

First of all, this applies to those areas where there is no necessary and sufficient information about the past.

From this we can conclude that social forecasting occupies an important part in the development of society, science and technology, and with its help it is possible to make forecasts. And besides this, it has its own key functions, features and methods. Starting element forecasting is goal setting (a way of realizing human foresight abilities).

1.3 Basic principles and criteria of social forecasting methodology

The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - the concept of characteristics and factors determined on a scientific basis that comprehensively characterize the forecast object.

The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

The subject of social forecasting is people - individual scientists and practitioners and research organizations.

The subject is to improve the needs of society and satisfy its needs.

The following types of forecasts exist:

1. According to the management hierarchy:

* forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations

* forecasts for the development of industries and clusters

* development forecasts municipalities

* regional development forecasts

* country development forecasts

* forecasts for the development of international cooperation and international structures

* global forecasts (worldwide)

2. According to the lead time of events:

* operational (7 days-1 year)

* short-term (1-3 years)

* medium-term (4-10 years)

* long-term (10-20 years)

* long-term (20-50 years)

* ultra-long-term (50 years or more)

3. By object and horizon:

* quantitatively specific (the solution options with a set of development indicators are clearly calculated)

* high-quality

4. According to the method of providing forecast information:

* point (as a single value)

* interval (set of predicted value values ​​based on interval calculations)

5. Based on functionality:

* search

* normative

Currently, several methodological principles of social forecasting are identified, on the basis of which the forecast object is analyzed and the forecast itself is developed.

A principle is a foundation from which one must build and by which one must be guided in action.

* The principle of consistency in forecasting.

The main concept here is “system” - a whole made up of parts; a connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. It must be borne in mind that the meaning of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, element connection, subsystem relationship, etc.

The main indicator of a system is the ability of many elements that form the system to withstand the environment. And, in addition to this, the activity of the system is based on a certain ordering of its elements, relationships and connections.

A social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, containing individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships, specifically social in nature.

* The principle of historicism

In social foresight, it directs the study of certain patterns, the conditions for their development, and requires the foresight of global changes to be supported by systematic forecasting of more private social processes.

In this sense, the forecast clarifies our understanding of the general development trend, reveals certain features and features of the future development of phenomena, localizes them within spatio-temporal boundaries, i.e. assumes a prognostic model of the development of a given phenomenon or process. In this case, possible changes in the forecast fund are taken into account, i.e. conditions in the future.

* Using the principle of social determination and development, forecasting provides for diverse connections and dependencies in social life (within the framework of a systems approach).

It is known that the phenomena of the material and spiritual world are in an objective, natural relationship and interdependence (determinism). And the significant position of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause), under well-defined conditions, necessarily gives rise to, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling and scenario thinking are based on this proposition.

* The principle of consistency presupposes the coordination of normative and search approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts of the possible development of various spheres - economic, environmental, demographic and others, different lead times in the forecast - short-, medium-, long-term, and beyond long-term.

* The principle of verifiability of forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. There is a whole group of methods for this purpose, which will be discussed below.

* The principle of profitability of forecasting is directly related to reliability, since only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, must pay off not only, but also bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a favorable result in any other case.

* The principle of continuity of forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the forecast object becomes available. And this is possible with the functioning of constantly operating forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case can you rely on a correct forecast.

Chapter 2. Types of forecasts and their classification

2.1 Classification and characteristics of social forecasting methods

Social forecasting as a study with a large coverage of objects of analysis is based on a huge number of methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are identified. Social forecasting methods are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the forecast object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of specific reliability regarding its (object’s) future development

There are a huge variety of social forecasting methods and according to this, there are 2 main groups of methods: simple and complex (Appendix 1):

* Simple methods

Factual forecasting methods are based on factual information material used in search forecasting and contain:

1.Statistical methods:

Ш extrapolation method;

The main idea of ​​extrapolation is to study the persistent trends in the development of an enterprise that have formed both in the past and present and transfer them to the future. Extrapolation methods are preferably used at the initial stage of forecasting to reveal trends in indicators.

Ш method of analogy.

Mathematical analogies include economic models and interobject analogs. They are most often used as the simplest economic forecasting models. Historical analogies are associated with advances (industrial or regional).

2. Methods for analyzing publications:

Ш dynamics;

Creation of time series based on various types of information, analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding object.

Ш publication;

The publication forecasting method is based on assessing the content and dynamics of publications relative to the object of study.

Ш patenting.

Provides for the assessment, according to the established criteria system, of fundamentally new inventions and studies of the dynamics of their patenting.

Expert forecasting methods are based on the knowledge of specialist experts about the forecast object and generalization of their opinions on the formation of the object in the future.

The technology of expert work contains several stages:

- the circle of experts is determined;

- a number of difficulties are discovered;

- a plan and time of action are planned;

- criteria for expert assessments are developed;

- the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated.

In normative forecasting, individual and collective forecasting methods are used.

1. Individual methods include:

Ш interview

Direct contact between the expert and the specialist is carried out according to the “question-answer” scheme.

Ш analytical expert assessments.

They represent a complete and multilateral analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the process under study. At the same time, the expert is able to attract additional documentary materials and think about his answers over a fairly long period.

2. Collective methods include:

Ш construction of a scenario;

A scenario is a description (a hypothetical picture) of the future, compiled taking into account more accurate assumptions. Scenarios are developed to define the framework for future development. The forecast contains several scenarios (“scenario tube”).

In most cases, these are three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and average - realistic (most likely).

Ш “goal tree”;

“Tree of goals” is a structured set of goals of a system, program, plan, built on a hierarchical principle (ranked by levels). It is founded through the sequential allocation of smaller and smaller parts at lower levels and is considered a combination of a general goal, a main goal and subgoals.

Ш morphological analysis.

Makes it possible to create new data about an object as a result of systematizing data on all valid solutions to the problem under study.

* Complex methods

Ш predictive graph method;

A graph is a figure consisting of points, called vertices, and segments connecting them, called edges. The choice of graph structure is determined by the essence of the relationships between the elements of the system that it should show. The basis of the method is considered to be expert and formal mathematical procedures for constructing and analyzing a graph that reflects the generalized judgment of a wide range of specialists about the needs, possible ways and resources necessary to achieve the goal. At each level, a group of experts determines goal events and the conditions for their achievement. The advantage of the method is the ability to work with the graph in the “person - information system” dialogue mode in order to control certain situations, that is, the ability to play out different situations. The graph is considered a dynamic system, and when new data is received from experts, estimates, forecast options and decisions made are revised.

Ш method system Pattern;

Used when planning research under conditions of uncertainty. The method is based on dividing a complex problem into smaller problems until each sub-problem can be diversified (according to different criteria) and reliably assessed by experts in quantitative terms. This method used in most cases to predict the extent to which the formulated goals and objectives will be achieved by those who manage the situation. This method makes it possible to abandon financially insecure and secondary topics.

Ш modeling method;

The essence of the modeling process includes the following stages: constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object; highlighting the essential characteristics of the object; experimental and theoretical analysis of the model; comparison of modeling results with real object data; adjustment or refinement of the model.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object by considering another object that is similar to it and more accessible.

Ш Foresight method (English - vision of the future).

A process of continually attempting to look into the distant future in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to provide the greatest economic and social benefits; a complex mechanism that achieves results through a combination of a system of methods. The method includes the creation of a plan, monitoring the implementation of the plan drawn up taking into account the method. Combines forecasting and planning functions. In addition to experts, practitioners and managers are involved. those. a skill is used that is not always considered a source of innovation. This is the most used method in the world.

Forecasting methods can be further divided into two auxiliary categories: intuitive methods (based on the predominance of intuition, that is, subjective principles); formalized methods.

* Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecast object.

This method contains a database of expert opinions, based on whose creative thinking it is possible to create a reliable picture of the future with subsequent formal processing of the forecasting results obtained.

There are individual and collective expert assessments.

Individual expert assessments include:

Ш "interview" method;

There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist using the question-answer scheme.

Ш analytical method;

A logical analysis of any predicted situation is carried out, and analytical reports are compiled.

Ш method of writing a script.

It is based on establishing the logic of development of a process or phenomenon over time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the main goal of development of the predicted object, phenomenon and to formulate criteria for assessing the upper levels of the “tree of goals.” A scenario is a picture that displays a consistent detailed solution to a problem, detection of possible obstacles, identification of serious deficiencies in order to solve the problem of the likely termination of work begun or completion of ongoing work on the projected object.

Collective expert methods are based on obtaining a generalized and agreed assessment of a group of experts, and usually these assessments are formed in the process of joint discussion and solution of the problems posed.

The main advantage of collective expert assessments is the fairly significant level of accuracy and consistency of the results obtained. The main disadvantage is the possibility of mutual influence of experts on each other.

When using collective expert assessment methods, several conditions must be adhered to:

Firstly, it is necessary to form special working groups whose functions are to organize and conduct a survey, process and analyze the results obtained.

Secondly, when conducting a survey, it is necessary to ensure an unambiguous understanding of the questions, as well as the relative independence of expert judgments.

Thirdly, the results must be processed, which characterize the generalized opinion and the degree of consistency of individual expert assessments.

Methods of collective expert assessments include:

Ш method of “Commissions”;

A group of experts meets repeatedly to discuss the same issue. The “Commissions” method involves conducting an examination in the form of a free exchange of opinions to obtain a general judgment of experts.

Ш “brainstorming” (“brainstorming”);

The essence of the brainstorming method is to update the potential of specialists when analyzing problematic situation, which initially realizes the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction of these ideas. The presenter reveals the contents of the problematic note and the “assault” continues for 20-60 minutes.

Ш Delphi method;

It is based on the principle of generalizing the opinions of individual experts into a coherent group opinion and implies a complete rejection of collective discussions.

Ш matrix method.

A forecasting method based on the use of matrices that reflect the values ​​(weights) of the vertices of the graph model of the forecast object, with further transformation of the matrices and operating with them. The matrix model assumes a rectangular table, the components of which reflect the interconnection of objects.

* Formalized forecasting includes:

Forecast extrapolation method:

Pushed out of processing quantitative characteristics objects acquired in the past and present with the comparative stability of the system. This method is used when forecasting for a period of 5-7 years, since errors accumulate over time.

Ш method of least squares;

It consists of finding characteristics of the trend model that minimize its discrepancy from the points of the original time series. A significant point in obtaining a forecast using this method is assessing the reliability of the result obtained.

Ш exponential smoothing method;

It is considered an effective and accurate forecasting method. The main advantages of the method are the ability to take into account the weights of the initial information, the simplicity of computational operations, and the flexibility of describing various process dynamics. This method makes it possible to obtain an estimate of trend parameters that determine not the average level of the process, but the trend that has developed at the time of observation. The method is in most cases used as a method for implementing medium-term forecasts.

Ш Moving average method.

Moving average extrapolation involves calculating the average of groups of data over a specific period of time. Moreover, each subsequent group of data is formed by a shift of 1 year or month. As a result, the initial fluctuation of the smoothing time series. The essence of the method is that the time-forecast indicator will be equal in value to the average calculated for the last period of time.

Modeling methods:

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - material or mental.

Ш structural modeling;

Represents the development of many methods of multivariate analysis, namely multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, factor analysis)

Ш network

Makes it possible to implement a systematic approach, use mathematical methods and modern computer technology when studying complex processes, increase the efficiency of planning and managing such processes), etc.

Modeling methods are the most complex forecasting method, consisting of different approaches to forecasting complex systems, processes and phenomena.

These methods may also overlap with expert methods.

2.2 Modern methods of social forecasting

social forecasting information extrapolation

Currently, there are about 220 forecasting methods, but most often no more than 10 are used in practice, among them: factual (extrapolation, interpolation, trend analysis), expert (including surveys, questionnaires), publications (including including patent), quotation-index, scenario, matrix, modeling, analogies, graph construction, etc. .

Now we will take a closer look at the methods that are the most modern and applicable methods of social forecasting, as they are constantly being improved by new ones information technology and more convenient and practical to use: factual method (extrapolation), modeling and examination.

When making forecasts using extrapolation, they usually proceed from statistically emerging trends in changes in certain quantitative characteristics of an object. Estimated functional system and structural characteristics are extrapolated. Extrapolation methods are one of the most common and most developed among the entire set of forecasting methods.

Using these methods, quantitative parameters of large systems, quantitative properties of economic, scientific, production potential, information on the effectiveness of scientific and technological progress, characteristics of the relationship of individual subsystems, blocks, elements in the system of indicators of complex systems, etc. are extrapolated.

But the level of reality of such forecasts and, accordingly, the degree of confidence in them are largely determined by the reasoning of the choice of extrapolation limits and the stability of the correspondence of the “measurers” in relation to the essence of the phenomenon under consideration.

The method is effective for short-term forecasts, if the information in the time series is clearly and stable. A dynamics series (or dynamic series) is a series of located in chronological sequence numerical values ​​of a statistical indicator that determine changes in social phenomena over time.

The content of the modeling process includes the following stages: constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object; highlighting the essential characteristics of the object; experimental and theoretical analysis of the model; comparison of modeling results with actual object data; adjustment or refinement of the model.

However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people.

The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist of changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplicity. In it, certain properties and characteristics of a real object are coarsened or not taken into account at all as unimportant. If this were not done, working with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. Yet here lie possible pitfalls in applying modeling to social design and forecasting.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very great. The model allows not only to develop effective management decision, but to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement. In fact, modeling is any variety business games. Analysis and modeling of social systems in Lately are being developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

The most commonly used forecasting method - expert review. The examination method is based on accumulated experience, knowledge of the characteristics of the functioning and development of the objects under study.

The examination method began with Trill's book The Science of Management (1911). In Russia, the science of examination began to develop in 1950-1960.

The method is used when there is uncertainty. Expertise is an assumption: what needs to be done in order for “this and that” to happen; or “what will happen if...”.

Expertise is the final judgment of an expert (or a group of experts, the population) about the dynamics of the indicators of the analyzed object or about alternative options their possible development in the future, which: objective, scientifically substantiated, probabilistic in nature, adjustable within the forecast period as new information becomes available, verifiable after the end of the forecast period, must be clear, clear, not allow unexpected interpretations, strictly comply with the forecast task , be evidence-based and reproducible.

The main goals of the examination are: increasing the validity of decisions made based on expert opinions; control of compliance and/or establishment of correspondence between the characteristics of the object of examination and the requirements provided for by regulatory, legal and legislative documents of various levels.

Expert forecasting methods are the most in demand; they work well for long periods and are fundamental for long-term forecasting. Let's consider popular examination methods:

The Delphi method is a further development of questionnaire survey methods and consists of several rounds of sequential anonymous questioning of experts with feedback. Feedback is provided by the fact that before each subsequent round of the survey, experts are informed of the generalized results of the previous round. The number of rounds is determined either by the required level of accuracy or by the established level of detail of the problem. The Delphi procedure uses only numbers.

The Delphi method is an iterative procedure that allows each expert's opinion to be critiqued by all the others without forcing them to actually come face to face.

The Delphi method (other names: “Delphic Method”, “Delphic Oracle Method”) appeared in the 1950-1960s in the USA to study military-strategic and military-technical problems. Developed by the RAND Corporation, authors: O. Helmer, T. Gordon, N. Dalkey.

The idea of ​​the method is to create a mechanism to ensure that the views of individuals remain anonymous and thereby minimize the influence of eloquent and persuasive individuals on the behavior of the group as a whole. All interactions between group members are controlled by a coordinator or leader who directs all group activities. The coordinator regulates the procedure for analyzing opinions and maintains their anonymity. The group score is calculated by him through some averaging (usually by finding the mean, or median) and communicated to all group members.

The purpose of the Delphi method is to reduce the psychological pressure experienced by some people during personal contact, and, therefore, to eliminate the influence on the final result of particularly eloquent or strong personality. With its anonymity, interactive processing, guided feedback, numerical ratings, and statistical determination of group scores, the Delphi method is a valuable research tool for simulation model developers.

The main principles of the Delphi method are:

* anonymity of participants (survey participants only fill out questionnaires and do not interact personally);

* the survey procedure is multi-round;

* after the next round, the information is processed and transmitted to the participants, anonymity is maintained.

When using the Delphi method, greater agreement is achieved between group opinion and the opinions of individual group members than with methods that require personal contacts.

The brainstorming method is based on the collective generation of ideas expressed spontaneously by participants in various professions and specializations. The brainstorming method appeared in the United States of America in the late 30s, and finally took shape and became known to a wide range of specialists with the publication of A. Osborne’s book “Controlled Imagination” in 1953, which revealed the principles and procedures of creative thinking. Its essence lies in the fact that when making a collective decision, two main tasks are solved:

* generating new ideas regarding possible options for the development of the process;

* analysis and evaluation of proposed ideas.

The brainstorming method is based on the psychological and pedagogical laws of collective activity.

In a brainstorming session, a means of removing so-called barriers is discussion, which helps to release creative energy and, by involving people in interactive communication, involve them in an active search for solutions to the problem at hand.

Brainstorming is, in fact, the most free form of discussion. The main function of this technology is to ensure the process of generating ideas, without their critical analysis and discussion by participants.

Commission method ( round table) - a group of experts meets repeatedly to directly discuss the same issue. In it, the organizer of the examination does not lead the discussion, but only guarantees the intensive work of each expert. The method is efficient, but there is a threat of mutual influence of expert opinions, especially the opinions of recognized authorities in this field of research.

The commission method takes into account the implementation of examination in the form of a free exchange of opinions in order to obtain a general judgment of experts. Face-to-face communication between experts significantly reduces the examination time and simplifies the acquisition of a single agreed opinion. When using the commission method, a discussion program is first developed. A group of experts is selected “voluntarily” - by appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people. To obtain a high-quality forecast, a free and face-to-face exchange of opinions between experts is provided, that is, open communication. Means of ensuring openness can include, in particular, personal statements from experts and, if possible, the rejection of impersonal judgments such as “it is generally believed that” or “they say that”. Of course, openness presupposes not only a willingness to state one’s own position, but also the desire and ability to perceive the position of other experts.

When discussing a problem, experts must follow the principle of psychological safety: the expert’s position and the judgments he expresses should not offend the dignity of other experts or turn the discussion of the problem into a way of asserting one’s own superiority; What is important is the mutual desire and readiness of experts to consider and solve the problem under discussion. The task of correlating and coordinating one’s own point of view with other opinions is not always solved easily. Therefore, experts need to be trained in interpersonal communication, and it is advisable for the organizers of the procedure to take into account the recommendations of psychologists - communication specialists.

The interview method involves a conversation between the organizer of forecasting activities and an expert by asking questions about the future state of the forecasting object and its forecast background. With the “interview” method, there is direct contact between an expert and a specialist using a “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, poses questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object.

The advantage of the “interview” method: a favorable environment, an isolated room, the absence of third parties and distractions.

Method of analytical memos - independent work expert to analyze the dynamics of the forecast object and possible paths of its development, it is assumed that the expert forecaster independently performs analytical work assessing the state and paths of development, setting out his considerations in writing. At the same time, to identify the importance of problems and solutions, the method of preference and the method of ranks are used.

The scenario method is a method for constructing a forecast scenario - an analytical forecasting method based on establishing a logical sequence of states of a forecast object and a forecast background in time under various conditions to determine the development goals of this object.

Thus, script writing is the identification of a logical sequence of events in order to show how, starting from an existing situation, the future state of an object can unfold step by step. Description is usually performed in explicit time coordinates. The main meaning of the scenario is to determine the general goal of development of the forecast object, identify background factors and formulate criteria for assessing goals. The scenario uses previously prepared forecasts and materials on the development of the forecast object.

When developing a scenario, since a group of specialists takes part in it, there is always uncertainty associated with the subjectivity of their judgments. The value of the scenario is higher, the lower the degree of uncertainty, i.e., the greater the degree of agreement between expert opinions. Therefore, an important quality of the scenario is the consistency of expert opinions.

The script can be presented in either text or numerical form.

This method is based on certain principles of special processing of scientific and technical information and involves identifying the degree of influence of new technologies and equipment on the pace of development of the scientific and technical process and, as a consequence, social processes. As noted above, there is a close relationship between various areas of forecasting, generated by the determination of all phenomena existing in objective reality. And therefore, changes occurring in nature or in the field of technology can cause serious changes in the social life of society, giving rise to both positive and negative processes in it.

Conclusion

Social forecasting is a special study about the likely prospects for the formation of a social object. In this case, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social layer, and the social state of an individual. The purpose of forecasting is not just to predict certain phenomena, but to promote a more effective impact on them in the right direction. In the process of scientific forecasting, a solution to 2 problems is found: 1) the goal of the possible development of the object is determined and motivated, 2) the means and methods of achieving this goal are determined.

There are a huge number of social forecasting methods, but they are all based on three ways of obtaining information about the future.

Firstly, this is an extrapolation into the future of observed trends, the patterns of formation of which in the past and present are quite well known (assuming that for a certain future these trends will continue without significant changes). Secondly, this is the modeling of predicted phenomena (understanding in this case a model as any relative, simplified for the convenience of research, schematic representation of the forecast object - an ordered set of indicators, a scenario of a possible or desirable development of events, etc. up to strictly formalized mathematical models -equations). Thirdly, an assessment of the probable or desirable future state of a particular phenomenon (primarily expert assessment).

The most used forecasting method is expert assessment. The examination method is based on accumulated experience, knowledge of the characteristics of the functioning and development of the objects under study. Expert forecasting methods are the most in demand; they work well for long periods and are fundamental for long-term forecasting. TO modern methods examinations include: collective - the Delphi method, brainstorming, the commission method, individual - the interview method, the method of business notes and the method of constructing scenarios.

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