China and North Korea: a tangled partnership. Why Russia and China are for sanctions against the DPRK

Ballistic missiles were shown for the first time at a military parade in Pyongyang. submarines"Pukkuksong." Photo by Reuters

Pyongyang is not yet in a position to strike America. This is evidenced by the unsuccessful rocket test conducted on Sunday. Nevertheless, Washington is increasing political and military pressure on the DPRK. US Vice President Michael Pence arrived in Seoul to reassure his ally. They greet him without enthusiasm. South Koreans are afraid that the unpredictable Donald Trump will repeat the Syrian option. Its results for the country would be catastrophic.

Pyongyang held a parade on Saturday, an impressive display of military might to mark the birthday of North Korea's founding father, Kim Il Sung. And all this in the presence of numerous foreign reporters. And the next morning there was a failure with the launch of a ballistic missile from a naval base on east coast countries.

US Pacific Command said the missile took off around 6 a.m. local time. It exploded almost immediately after launch. This makes it difficult to identify the missile's range and size. Be that as it may, this failure reinforces Western experts' doubts about Pyongyang's claims that it is capable of responding with nuclear weapons to a US attack.

Experts were amazed at the number of new missiles shown at the parade in Pyongyang. Previously, two types of intercontinental ballistic missiles were demonstrated at such parades - KN-08 and KN-14. On Saturday, the vehicles that carried the missiles were the same as before. But they were moving large, unprecedented canisters. There could be old missiles, brand new ones, or nothing at all inside.

The missile test took place at the moment when US Vice President Michael Pence flew from Alaska to Seoul. According to the Washington Post, there he must issue a serious warning to North Korea. Its meaning is that the DPRK will pay dearly if it does not stop its provocations.

In South Korea, the public is unlikely to warmly welcome an American guest. South Koreans are afraid that the unpredictable owner of the White House will repeat the Syrian option with a missile attack on the Korean Peninsula. Its results for the country would be catastrophic. This is what priest Robert Park writes in the Korea Herald newspaper. Japan and China have already taken measures to protect their citizens in the event of a military confrontation. And civilians in South Korea, who would suffer incalculable damage in the event of American preventive strikes against North Korea, are completely unprepared for this scenario.

At the same time, the American troops themselves in South Korea will not suffer much. And the Seoul region, with its population of 25 million, is within the firing range of North Korean artillery.

Yet, is China about to intervene in a potential military conflict in Korea? In a conversation with NG, a leading researcher at the Institute Far East RAS Vasily Kashin noted: “The Chinese doubt that anyone in their right mind could come up with the idea of ​​striking North Korea. North Korea and Syria are different universes. Syria is bombed by Israel year after year, nothing follows. The losses from Israel were greater than the Tomahawk strikes. North Korea- something else."

Kim Jong-un is hated in Beijing. They would be happy to change the format of relations with the DPRK. But Kim destroyed all the people who were familiar and sympathetic to the Chinese in North Korea; there are no communication channels, Kim is incomprehensible and unpredictable to them. According to unconfirmed rumors, there is a group of North Koreans who were not executed, but fled to China in the hope of seizing power if everything goes south; but this is difficult to confirm.

The Chinese will not do anything drastic with North Korea, taking into account the fact that the Americans are also unlikely to do anything radical. It is unlikely that China will defend North Korea and follow old treaties, Kashin predicts.

Let us recall that an agreement was concluded between China and the DPRK in 1961, which provided for assistance in the event of an attack on one of the participants. Chinese publicists today often speak in the spirit that the DPRK itself violated this treaty by conducting nuclear tests contrary to UN decisions. Therefore, the PRC is not obliged to fulfill this agreement.

At the same time, Beijing has not abandoned the idea of ​​reviving negotiations on Korea through joint efforts with Russia. In a telephone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing intends to closely coordinate its actions with Moscow, promote a speedy de-escalation of tensions and promote the resumption of dialogue between all parties.

However, the Chinese press report on the conversation does not mention any joint action on Syria. Wang Yi, however, mentioned the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. But, as before, Beijing did not want to condemn the American strike against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, preferring to take a neutral position.

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption Donald Trump reproached the Chinese authorities for not putting enough pressure on North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Donald Trump and North Korean authorities to show restraint and refrain from “words and actions” that could increase tensions.

Earlier, the US President warned North Korea that it faces “big, big trouble” if anything happens to the island of Guam, where the American military base is located.

Speaking at Bedminster, a golf resort in New Jersey, Trump promised the area would be "completely secure" and threatened further sanctions on North Korea.

After this, Donald Trump had a phone conversation with Xi Jinping. According to Chinese media, Chairman Xi noted that it is in the interests of both China and the United States to ensure that the Korean Peninsula becomes a nuclear-free zone.

According to the White House, both sides came to a common understanding that North Korea must cease its "provocative and aggressive behavior."

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption “No one loves peaceful solutions more than President Trump,” said the American leader, delivering another menacing tirade against the DPRK

“Let’s hope that happens,” Trump said earlier. “Nobody likes peaceful solutions more than President Trump, I assure you.”

On Friday The US President warned that the American army is "ready for battle." "Military solutions are at the ready, ready to fight if North Korea acts unwisely. Let's hope Kim Je-un finds another way," Trump tweeted.

Trump has stepped up his belligerent rhetoric toward North Korea on Tuesday, vowing the US would respond with "fire and fury" after Pyongyang said it could now equip its intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.

The DPRK authorities responded by saying that.

According to CNN, the North Korean army commander said: "The American president was on the golf course again spewing nonsense about 'fire and fury' without being able to grasp the gravity of the situation."

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption IN Lately various representatives of the American administration are making increasingly harsh statements against Pyongyang

The exchange of threats between Washington and Pyongyang has raised concerns in Moscow. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the risk of military conflict as very high. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there is no military solution to the North Korean problem, and “escalating aggressive rhetoric is the wrong answer.”

On Friday Donald Trump, when asked by journalists to clarify the words about “fire and fury,” replied: “I hope that they [North Korea] understand the full seriousness of what I said, and I said it seriously... These words are very, very understandable Just".

“If he [Kim Jong-un] makes another direct threat [...] against Guam or any other American territory or American ally, then he will truly regret it and regret it immediately,” Trump added .

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Guam: why is the island threatened by North Korea?

Also on Friday, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) accused Washington of "criminally attempting to engineer a nuclear disaster against the Korean people," saying the US was making desperate attempts to test its weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

"The USA is the instigator of nuclear threats, a disgusting fanatic nuclear war", the statement said.

The current round of tension began after the DPRK launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles in July, after which the UN decided to strengthen economic sanctions against Pyongyang.

According to Pentagon chief John Mattis, the United States has not lost hope of resolving the North Korean crisis through diplomacy. The war will turn into a disaster, the US Secretary of Defense warned.

Siegfried Hecker - professor at Stanford University in California, former head of the US National Laboratory at Los Alamos:

“Given the last two successful tests this year, it should be assumed that the DPRK has developed and demonstrated nuclear warheads that can be equipped with short-range and possibly medium-range missiles.”

“Their ability to field an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) equipped nuclear warhead"that could reach the United States is still far from being realized - it will take perhaps 5-10 years, but it is quite feasible if the development of the program is not impeded."

What's happening in Korea?

Noisy and menacing events are currently taking place in the Far East region. Impeachment of the President of South Korea, missile tests by North Korea, assassination of Kim Jong Nam and so on. I'll try to explain as best I can what this all means.

I think that the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, the Maidan in South Korea, and North Korea's missile tests, which led to the deployment of the American missile defense system in South Korea, are all links in one chain - US policy against China.

In the public consciousness, it is generally accepted that the DPRK and the United States are irreconcilable enemies, but in reality this is not entirely true. North Korea may well play along with the United States. All these games of nuclear-missile intimidation on the part of the DPRK always act as a convenient excuse for the United States to build up missile defense and military forces in the region. This is how it works this time too.

I'll start with missile launches and North Korea's relations with China. China and North Korea used to be the strongest allies. China's participation in the Korean War alone is worth it. And so everything was until the arrival of Xi Jingping.

Previously, China's relations with North Korea passed through the group of former PRC Secretary General Jiang Zemin and his closest assistant, the head of the Chinese KGB, Zhou Yongkang. When Xi Jingping came, he began to clean out the entire Jiang Zemin group, and Zhou Yongkang was imprisoned. As a result, China became South Korea communicate more than with the North. I think that is why North Korea agreed to an “agreement” with the United States. They stage a nuclear provocation with their missile exercises - in response, the Americans deploy missiles in South Korea, and Japan strengthens the army.

In order to interrupt such a flow of “dough”, it is necessary to organize a Maidan - no other way. No one will voluntarily give up “such a flow.”

Previously, during the Obama administration, an “agreement” between the United States and China was possible, including thanks to Soros and Buffett, who advocate friendship with China (for more details, see my post “Will there be a war between the United States and China?”).

Now Trump, an open supporter of Taiwan and confrontation with China, sits in the administration. Only Trump is now completely absorbed internal politics, he hardly has time for such combinations. Plus, the Maidan in South Korea began long before Trump. Here, most likely, the system works without it.

Finally, there is a version according to which China kept Kim Jong Nam, as well as a number of other North Korean officials who fled to China, in case of a political crisis in Pyongyang, so that, if something happened, they could immediately put a group of their proteges in power there.

So the assassination of Kim Jong Nam is another blow to the China-DPRK connection, and this coincides with the DPRK's missile tests, which led to tension in the region.

Now Japan also “expresses deep concern about the actions of North Korea,” and is also not averse to increasing its military power against this background, which was limited as a result of the Second World War.

And here it is clear that all this is not directed against North Korea, which China immediately began to put pressure on economically, but primarily against China.

And the reason for this anti-Chinese pressure is very simple - China is growing too quickly, and the entire Western world and its allies are stagnating. If China is allowed to grow unhindered for the next few years, then any attempts to compete with it will become even potentially futile. The only option is to cut off the rapidly growing China on takeoff. Just like the British Empire tried to cut off Germany in the First World War.

Third World War, if it happens, it will become a repetition not of the Second World War, but of the First. Fading superpower No. 1 wages war against rapidly rising young superpower No. 2 before it is too late.
The deployment of THAAD in South Korea, the build-up of forces by Japan, all these are stages of preparation for a war with China.

Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor at Georgetown University and a specialist in security studies.

Summary: Over the past 20 years, relations between China and North Korea have deteriorated sharply: Beijing grew tired of Pyongyang's arrogance and reconsidered its interests on the Korean Peninsula. Today, China is no longer concerned about the survival of the DPRK.

Americans have long accepted Mao Zedong's famous formulation about relations between China and North Korea - the two countries are as close as lips and teeth. Pyongyang depends on Beijing for energy, food and trade with the rest of the world, so one after another, American administrations have tried to involve China in attempts to denuclearize the DPRK. Following this logic, President Donald Trump turned to China for help, threatening to impose sanctions otherwise. Politicians believe that if North Korea is on the verge of collapse or goes to war with the United States, China will try to support its favorite client and station troops along the border to stem the flow of refugees.

But this idea has long been outdated. Over the past 20 years, relations between China and North Korea have deteriorated sharply as Beijing grew tired of Pyongyang's arrogance and reconsidered its interests on the Korean Peninsula. Today, China is no longer concerned about the survival of the DPRK. In the event of conflict or the fall of the regime, the Chinese army may intervene, but only to protect its own interests, and not to save its supposed ally.

In the current cycle of provocations and escalation of tensions, understanding China's position on North Korea ceases to be a purely scientific problem. Last July, Pyongyang successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the US West Coast. And in September, a hydrogen bomb was detonated, 17 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. American rhetoric only made the situation worse. Trump called North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a "short guy with missiles," threatened that North Korea would "soon cease to exist" and said a "military solution is at hand." To back up its threats, the United States sent strategic bombers and warships to the Korean Peninsula.

The reality of chaos on the peninsula should force the United States to reconsider Beijing's motivations. If the conflict escalates, China will likely try to take control of key areas, including North Korea's nuclear facilities. The large-scale presence of American and Chinese troops on the Korean Peninsula increases the risk of an open clash between the two powers, which neither side wants. But given the lack of close ties between Beijing and Pyongyang today, and China's concerns about North Korea's nuclear program, the two great powers may suddenly find common ground. A forward-looking policy would allow the United States to reduce the risk of accidental conflict while also engaging China to reduce the costs and duration of a second Korean War.

Reconsider approach

Conventional wisdom holds that China is not prepared to push North Korea toward denuclearization due to its own vulnerabilities. This opinion is based on three assumptions: China and the DPRK are allies; China fears instability on the Korean Peninsula and the refugee problem; Beijing needs North Korea as a buffer between China and South Korea, a key US ally. These assumptions were true 20 years ago, but Beijing's views have changed significantly since then.

China and North Korea for a long time had a close relationship based on interdependence. A year after the birth of Chinese People's Republic Beijing came to the aid of its young communist neighbor during the Korean War. To prevent a new “aggression” against Pyongyang, in 1961 the parties signed a mutual assistance agreement. After graduation cold war, when the DPRK lost Soviet patronage, economic and military assistance Beijing began to support her. But today Beijing and Pyongyang can hardly be called friends or allies. Chinese President Xi Jinping has never met with Kim Jong-un, and, according to Chinese experts close to the leadership of the Communist Party and government, he despises the North Korean regime. In Chinese foreign policy circles they say that even the Chinese Ambassador to Pyongyang has not met with Kim Jong-un.

Xi Jinping has publicly stated that the 1961 treaty will cease to apply if North Korea provokes a conflict, which is likely. During my trips to China over the past 10 years, the DPRK issue was discussed with experts, politicians and military officials, but none of them mentioned the treaty or Beijing's obligations to defend Pyongyang. My Chinese colleagues, on the contrary, talked about the deterioration of relations between the two countries and China’s desire to distance itself from the DPRK. By the way, according to a Global Times survey, this trend enjoys support in society. Chinese expert Zhu Feng noted in the pages of Foreign Affairs that the decision to surrender the DPRK would be strategically reasonable and would ensure the support of the population.

Bilateral relations have deteriorated so much that officers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in private conversations did not rule out that in the event of a new Korean War, Beijing and Pyongyang could find themselves different sides front lines. The Chinese military believes it will have to confront the North Korean army rather than support it. China may intervene in the conflict not to protect the North Korean regime, but to shape life on the peninsula after its fall.

Changes in China's policies are driven by growing confidence in its own capabilities and regional influence. Concerns about instability on the Korean Peninsula and the subsequent refugee crisis have ceased to dominate the Chinese approach. Previously, PLA strategists were focused on strengthening the borders and creating a buffer zone to stem the flow of refugees. For decades this was the maximum task. But over the past 20 years, a modern army has appeared in China, its weapons have been modernized, and organizational structure reformed. And now China is able to cope with instability on its borders while simultaneously conducting operations on the peninsula.

In the event of the fall of Kim Jong-un's regime, the Chinese People's Armed Militia, numbering about 50 thousand people in the northeastern provinces of the country, will take over protecting the borders and regulating the flow of refugees, while the PLA will be able to conduct operations in the south. China has three army groups subordinate to the Northern Command, one of the five theater commands of the PLA, which is responsible for the Korean Peninsula. Each army has from 45 to 60 thousand military personnel, plus army aviation and special forces. If necessary, China will be able to redeploy Central Command forces and more actively use its air force. After the reorganization of military regions in February 2016, Shandong province was included in the Northern Command, apparently, the military leadership needs access to the coast to transport troops to North Korea by sea. The modernization and reform of the military over the past 20 years, as well as China's geographical advantages, suggest that the Chinese army will be able to quickly occupy most North Korea, even before the Americans send additional forces to South Korea to prepare for the invasion.

In the past, close ties between Beijing and Pyongyang have been driven in part by the idea that the DPRK serves as a buffer between China and the once-hostile, capitalist-turned-democratic South Korea. But with the increasing power and influence of China, this argument also lost relevance. Previously, Beijing was wary of the prospect of Korean unification under the auspices of Seoul. Now many influential Chinese experts propose to further distance themselves from Pyongyang and improve relations with Seoul. Even Xi Jinping has expressed support for the idea of ​​Korean unification in the long term, but through a peace process. In July 2014, speaking at the Seoul national university, he stated, “China hopes that both sides of the peninsula will improve relations and ultimately support the implementation of the idea of ​​independent and peaceful reunification of the peninsula.”

However, China's calculations regarding South Korea have only partially changed. Enthusiasm for Korean unification peaked in 2013-2015, when South Korean President Park Geun-hye declared bilateral relations with Beijing a priority. But after the North Korean nuclear tests in early 2016, Seoul began to strengthen relations with Washington and agreed to deploy the THAAD missile defense system, which disappointed the Chinese leadership, since the policy of friendliness did not yield results. The main problem for China remains the presence American troops in a unified Korea. Beijing still supports Korean unification, but on its own terms. Going forward, this approach will likely depend on the state of bilateral relations with South Korea.

What China Really Wants

Given the potential damage from a war on the Korean Peninsula, American strategists have long thought that China would make every effort to avoid becoming embroiled in a confrontation with American and South Korean forces. If Beijing intervened, politicians believed, it would be limited to resolving the refugee crisis or would support the Kim Jong-un regime from a distance, providing political, economic and military assistance. In any case, Washington believed that Chinese participation would not affect American operations.

Today it is no longer safe to hold this point of view. It is time for Washington to recognize that China's intervention will be extensive, including the deployment of troops to the peninsula if the United States decides to send its forces north. This does not mean that China will take preemptive action. Beijing will continue to try to keep both sides out of war. And if the conflict boils down to an exchange of missile or air strikes, China will most likely remain on the sidelines. But if attempts to contain the United States and prevent the conflict from escalating fail, Beijing will not hesitate to send troops to North Korea to ensure the protection of its interests during the war and beyond.

China's strategic aggressiveness will largely be driven by concerns about the fate of Kim Jong-un's nuclear arsenal. It is they who will force China to intervene and take control of North Korean nuclear facilities. As Chinese expert Shen Zhihua notes, “if the Korean nuclear bomb will explode, who will suffer from radioactive contamination? China and South Korea. Japan is separated by the sea, and the United States is separated by the Pacific Ocean.”

China is quite capable of dealing with this threat. According to American estimates non-profit organization Nuclear Threat Initiative, if Chinese troops advance 100 km deep into North Korean territory, they will be able to control all of the country's priority nuclear facilities and two-thirds of key missile facilities. the main objective for the Chinese leadership, it is to avoid the spread of nuclear contamination, and the presence of the PLA at these sites will prevent the development of numerous frightening scenarios. China will not allow accidents at the facilities, will prevent the United States, South Korea or Japan from attacking them, and will not allow the North Koreans to use weapons or commit sabotage.

Beijing also fears that the nuclear arsenal will be inherited by a unified Korea. My Chinese interlocutors are convinced that South Korea is striving to become a nuclear power, and the Americans support these ambitions. China fears that if Kim Jong-un's regime falls, South Korean troops will seize the North's nuclear facilities - with or without Washington's blessing. These fears can be called far-fetched, however, the idea of ​​obtaining nuclear weapons popular in Seoul. The main opposition party has called for the United States to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula, a possibility the Trump administration has not ruled out.

In addition to nuclear concerns, China’s position on the DPRK has been changed overall by the greater geopolitical aggressiveness of Xi Jinping. Unlike his predecessors, he makes no secret of China's great power ambitions. In October, during a three-and-a-half-hour speech, he called China a "strong country" and " great country» 26 times. Deng Xiaoping preferred a different principle: hide your strength, wait the right moment. Under Xi Jinping, China is increasingly taking on the role of a major power. The military reforms initiated by Xi Jinping are aimed at ensuring PLA victories in future wars.

A war on the Korean Peninsula could test China's strength in its regional rivalry with the United States. China's concerns about Washington's future influence explain why Beijing is not willing to put pressure on North Korea the way the Trump administration wants. China will not risk provoking instability or war if it only increases the United States' role in the region. China no longer wants to remain on the sidelines. One of the PLA officers asked me: “Why should the Americans be here and not us?” That is why, Chinese experts and military officials say, Beijing will participate in events on the Korean Peninsula.

Joint efforts

Thus, Washington must first realize that any conflict on the Korean Peninsula that involves significant US forces will lead to Chinese military intervention. This does not mean that the United States should contain China: such action would likely fail and would increase the risk of direct military confrontation between the United States and China. Any steps that adversely affect relations between Beijing and Washington will complicate the development of an action plan and coordination before and during a crisis, and the risk of miscalculations will correspondingly increase.

Washington should recognize that some forms of Chinese intervention will benefit American interests, especially in terms of nuclear nonproliferation. It is important that the American leadership understands that Chinese troops will reach North Korea's nuclear facilities faster due to geographical advantages, the deployment and size of the armed forces, as well as an early warning system. And this is good, because the risk of the use of nuclear weapons by the North Korean regime losing power against the United States and its allies is reduced. China will also help locate nuclear sites (with the assistance of US intelligence agencies), ensure their safety and security of nuclear materials, and then invite international experts to destroy the weapons. The United States, in turn, could lead an international operation to intercept North Korean nuclear materials at sea, in the air and on land and ensure their safe storage and destruction.

American policymakers need to change their mind-set: Chinese involvement is an opportunity, not an obstacle, to U.S. operations. For example, the American army and Marines They must admit that while securing North Korea's nuclear facilities is their key priority in the event of a conflict, they will have to change plans if the Chinese get there first.

At the political level, Washington must take a risk and try to improve coordination with China in peacetime. There could be bilateral consultations with Beijing, although Seoul, a key ally of Washington, would prefer to keep China at a distance. Of course, intelligence sharing, joint planning, or military exercises are unlikely given the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. The Pentagon views China as one of five global threats along with Iran, North Korea, Russia and extremist organizations. But strategic challenges and threats often unite potential adversaries, and this is natural. By dealing with the DPRK issue, the United States will be able to redirect resources to counter other threats.

Effective collaboration will certainly require coordination of efforts. China has long refused to discuss with the United States how it would handle conflict on the Korean Peninsula or the fall of the North Korean regime, out of mistrust of the Americans and fears that Washington would use these conversations to derail Beijing's efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully. However, China appears to have softened its position. In September, in a column in the East Asia Forum, Peking University professor Jia Jingguo noted the need for China to cooperate with the United States and South Korea, especially on the issue of North Korea's nuclear arsenal. According to Jia Jingguo, “The ghosts of war hang over the Korean Peninsula. If war becomes a reality, China must be prepared. Given this, China should consider negotiating with relevant parties to coordinate actions.”

If Beijing continues to reject offers of cooperation, Washington should consider unilaterally communicating its plans to reduce the risk of accidental clashes. It is also possible to transfer data to the Chinese side that will help the PLA ensure the security of large nuclear facilities. The parties can also use existing mechanisms for cooperation in the field of nuclear safety, including joint centers of excellence or the IAEA. Americans have extensive experience in ensuring the safety of nuclear weapons and their destruction. China has enough people to take control of its nuclear facilities, but it is unclear whether they have the necessary knowledge For safe storage, transportation and destruction of nuclear materials and weapons. Thanks to the exchange of experience, Chinese specialists will be able to understand what they find at North Korean sites.

Every strategy has disadvantages. Critics will certainly point out that China's coordination and involvement on the Korean Peninsula has pitfalls. First, any involvement by Beijing, let alone the presence of Chinese troops, is strongly opposed by South Korea. U.S. efforts to coordinate with China will harm relations with Seoul, although a lower-cost solution to North Korea may be worth it.

Of greater concern may be the possibility that China's intervention will weaken some of the United States' influence on the Korean Peninsula. At a fundamental level, China will not act to help the United States. His goal is to prevent the presence of Americans in a unified Korea. But in the end it's not so bad. In frank conversations, Chinese experts noted that Beijing may well agree to a US alliance with a unified Korea. In this case, the withdrawal of American troops from the peninsula will be an acceptable price for the most favorable outcome of the second Korean War.

Published in the magazineForeign Affairs, No. 1, 2018. © Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.

article read by: 4171 people

North Korea and China share a common border, a common historical past and similar political views in the present. The friendship of the countries has been documented more than once and has survived the change of major political systems of neighboring powers - including Soviet Union. However, over the past decade the situation has changed for the worse, and further development is predicted international relations difficult.

Historical background

Active diplomatic relations between the countries began to develop in the 1950s, when China took the side of the DPRK in the Korean War. This cooperation was forced, since the possible victory of the South Korean-American troops created a threat to Beijing. China entered the war as soon as enemy forces crossed the North Korean border. This decision in the future led to a deterioration in relations between the PRC and the Soviet Union.

In 1961, the first agreement on cooperation and friendship between the countries was signed. Under its terms, China and North Korea undertake to provide mutual economic assistance and conduct trade relations. In addition, if international conflicts arise involving one of the countries, the second will provide troops. This pact was extended twice - in 1981 and 2001. Until 2021, both states must adhere to its terms.

Economic and military relations

China plays the role largest exporter for North Korean production. More than half of the goods and materials from the DPRK are transported to the PRC. However, such cooperation cannot be called equal, since for China Korea ranks 82nd in terms of the number of exported products.

• coal and oil;
• cloth;
• steel and iron;
• food products, 70% of which are fish and seafood.

Important aspect economic relations between countries - tourism. About 90% of foreigners visiting the DPRK are Chinese citizens. Official data on the military relations of the states is not disclosed, but from other sources it is known about the supply of military equipment to the DPRK - aircraft, armored personnel carriers and anti-aircraft guns.

Conflicts

Disagreements between allied countries arise mainly due to territorial disputes. The largest conflict on this issue is the dispute that occurred in 1965, when China demanded the separation of 160 square meters territories. The reason for this was the Sino-Soviet conflict, in which North Korea refused to accept Active participation. To “punish” its allies, China set the condition for border demarcation. However, this demand led to armed clashes and did not bear fruit. In 1970, Beijing withdrew its claims to the territory.

Another major conflict occurred in 2013. It is associated with the seizure of a Chinese fishing vessel by North Korean border guards. North Korea said the ship had illegally crossed the waters. The DPRK agreed to return the ship and hostages for 600 thousand yuan, which is approximately equal to 97 thousand dollars.

Current situation

After the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, relations between the states deteriorated .

The policy of the new ruler is not approved by China for a number of reasons, the most significant of which are considered:

• North Korea's nuclear program;
• non-progressive methods of economic development;
• non-compliance with labor and labor obligations construction contracts;
• ignoring diplomatic missions from China, neglecting official congratulations and addresses.

A clear indicator of cooling in relations is the growing sympathy of the DPRK for Russia. Thus, Kim Jong-un made his first visit as a ruler not to Beijing, but to Moscow for a military parade in honor of Victory Day. Russia was also given preference when publishing congratulations on the Founding Day of the DPRK: Vladimir Putin’s address was placed on the front page of newspapers, and Xi Jinping’s on the last. The disagreements led to statements by the Chinese President that if an economic crisis or open conflict with South Korea occurs, the PRC should not provide assistance to the DPRK.