Basic concepts of theory and methods of technological forecasting. Stages of forecast development
The variety of problems to be solved in the field of forecasting led to the development large number methods. Currently, more than 300 methods are known for making forecasts. The following forecasts are most widely used in technology.
1. Extrapolation method, which is based on the transfer of the dynamics of events and conditions that took place in the recent past to the future. This method is widely used in short-term forecasting, mainly in areas of technology where significant qualitative changes in its development are not expected. The scope of this forecasting method is mainly events that develop in an evolutionary way and rather slowly over time.
The extrapolation method can solve problems of two types:
1) statistical ones in which they analyze the relationship between the main feature and other parameters without taking into account the time factor
2) dynamic, in which the time factor is an indispensable component of the equation
2. Expert method assessments is that a group of specialist experts is asked a number of questions regarding the development of a given technical area or projected object. Then, by mathematical processing of the results of the expert survey, the prevailing opinions are established. Difficult when using this method, which is subjective in nature, is the selection of groups of experts, establishment of principles for conducting a survey, assessment of the accuracy of the results, etc.
This method is advisable to use in the absence of sufficiently systematized information about the past or in the case when scientific and technological development depends to a large extent on the decisions made than on the technical capabilities themselves.
3. Simulation method characterized by the fact that the analysis of source data is carried out not on the objects under study, but on their models, made in accordance with the requirements of the theory of similarity. This method is based on the expedient abstraction of the processes of development of events in the future. The most general and at the same time quite strict direction is the method mathematical modeling.
Forecasts are usually developed for the period during which the decision will take effect.
Special studies have established that in our time renewal existing species machines occurs in 5-7 years, and theoretical basis the creation of machines and the development trends in the principles of operation of these machines persist for 10-15 years. Therefore, when justifying the need to create machines optimal time The forecast is for a period of up to 15 years on average. The reliability of forecasts made for a longer period noticeably decreases.
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Engineering forecasting is carried out in contact with the innovation manager and aims to identify what innovations may appear during the forecast period. At this stage, the timing and procedure for the industrial development of new products are determined; the pace of renewal and the scale of distribution of new technical solutions, materials, technologies.
Engineering forecasting uses the most universal methods.
Engineering forecasting is carried out by analyzing various sources of information that do not contain numerical estimates.
The purpose of engineering forecasting is to determine promising methods and trends in the development of equipment designs for implementation in conditions of service stations and road accidents, ensuring high level mechanization of work with minimal impact of processes on environment allowing removal from external surfaces Vehicle pollution groups 1, 2 and 7 (see table 1.1) without damage paint coatings in compliance with sanitary and hygienic requirements for disinfection and deodorization of equipment, as well as safe conditions labor of personnel involved in cleaning.
The effectiveness of engineering forecasting before starting machine design is very significant, and the costs of its implementation are well worth it. The complexity of developing engineering forecasting methods is explained by the fact that, firstly, the amount of initial information is insufficient and there is often no quantitative data by which to evaluate possible options constructive solutions; secondly, the need to take into account a large number of parameters and connections between them, even in a relatively simple project complicates its assessment, since it is impossible or very difficult to give a generalized assessment1 of the structure according to various criteria. All this indicates the need for appropriate preparation of initial information.
The basis of engineering forecasting is made up of three areas that determine the significance of new discoveries and inventions, the goal and technical strategy, and the promising level of development of machine design. In engineering forecasting, theoretical and experimental means of analysis and synthesis are used.
Engineering forecasting is understood as scientifically based information that reflects the potential possibilities of technology development in the form of a probabilistic category. Economic issues are included in the content of forecasting as component. At the same time, technical forecasting creates the basis for economic forecasts.
Morphological analysis in engineering forecasting is applicable to both evolutionary development, and to qualitative changes.
From the arsenal of all engineering forecasting methods, only two are discussed below: patent and the method of local strategies. These methods allow you to get quantification ideas, technical solutions contained in non-parametric sources of information, refine the information, highlight the most valuable from it and justify the development paths of technology and technology of the future.
Forecast indicators are determined at the stage of engineering forecasting. These may include any of the TCI indicators discussed above. They are used when it is necessary to take into account trends in the development of equipment, technology and organization of production, operation and repair.
The information obtained during engineering forecasting forms the basis for developing the requirements of the technical specifications for the implementation design work to improve or fundamentally change technological equipment. They also serve as the basis for the right choice cleaning methods and equipment from among the known ones.
Among all the above methods, a certain group is united by engineering forecasting. It relies on information contained in completed projects and research projects, patents and copyright certificates. According to , engineering forecasting is understood as scientifically based information that reflects in a probabilistic formulation the potential possibilities of technology development. In Fig. 3.3 presents information sources located at certain levels and forecast time periods. Engineering forecasting covers a period of no more than 15 years.
This gave reason to conclude that engineering forecasting ensures the refinement of all information about the object under study and is a powerful research tool that makes it possible to develop reasonable technical requirements and directions for further improvement of methods and means of technological equipment for cleaning processes.
The organization of forecasting work is a set of interrelated activities aimed at creating conditions for forecasting in order to prepare information for making operational and strategic decisions. The objectives of organizing forecasting work are: collecting and systematizing the information necessary for forecasting; training of specialists who know the basic techniques and methods of forecasting; formation and organization of the functioning of working planning bodies integrated with existing management services. Rational organization of forecasting work should ensure prompt receipt of options quality characteristics the object being studied, its change trends, as well as reducing funds and labor costs for forecasting. When solving organizational issues, it is necessary to determine whether the entire forecast calculation will be carried out by full-time employees or whether a decision will be made to attract third-party specialists. When developing long- and medium-term forecasts, in some cases it is advisable to involve external consultants. There are a number of arguments for such involvement: - forecasting requires professionalism: a specialist has a better command of complex research methodology, including a variety of methods; - performing forecast work in various areas activities, the consultant better senses the connections between the elements of the whole, so he can better implement systems approach as the basis for forecasting; - not being a full-time employee, an external consultant is more interested in the objectivity and effectiveness of the forecast and is more objective, since he does not depend on the opinions of other members and managers of the business structure (which a full-time employee is forced to take into account). Involving expert consultants in the development forecasts are justified at the stage of scenario forecasting, where a large number of expert assessments, analytical calculations. The structure of the forecast is determined by the time frame for which it is developed, as well as the main directions of scientific and technological progress, which depend on the “lifespan” of trends that developed in the period preceding their development. The more stable the trends, the wider the forecast horizon can be. The forecast is a pre-planning document and therefore its implementation in practice means the development of a scientifically based, optimal plan based on the use of forecast options and the costs of achieving it.Order and sequence work is determined depending on the forecasting method used. Usually the work is carried out in several stages.
Stage 1 – predictive retrospection, i.e. establishing the forecast object and the forecast background. The work at the first stage is performed in the following sequence:
Formation of a description of an object in the past, which includes a predictive analysis of objects, assessment of its parameters, their significance and mutual connections;
Identification and assessment of sources of information, the procedure and organization of work with them, collection and processing of retrospective information;
Statement of the research problem.
Carrying out the tasks of forecast retrospection, forecasters examine the history of the development of the object and the forecast background in order to obtain a systematic description of them.
At the same stage, the development of a task for the forecast is carried out, that is, a document that defines the goals and objectives of the forecast and regulates the procedure for its development.
2nd stage – predictive diagnosis, during which a systematic description of forecast objects and forecast background is examined in order to identify trends in their development and select models and forecasting methods. The work is performed in the following sequence:
Development of a model of the forecast object, including a formalized description of the object, checking the degree of adequacy of the model to the object;
Selection of forecasting methods (main and auxiliary), development of algorithm and work programs.
Stage 3 – prospection, those. extensive forecast development process, including:
Calculation of predicted parameters for a given lead period;
Synthesis of individual components of the forecast.
Stage 4 – assessment of the forecast, including its verification(determining the degree of reliability, accuracy and validity).
The resulting forecast can be adjusted in the future, i.e. clarification based on verification results, taking into account additional materials and research.
The forecast results are drawn up in the form of a certificate, report or other material and presented to the customer.
During forecasting, performers may have a forecast option, a forecast alternative, and the need to check the forecast experiment.
Forecast option– one of the forecasts that make up a group of possible forecasts.
Predictive alternative– one of the forecasts that make up a group of mutually exclusive forecasts.
Predictive experiment– varying the characteristics of the forecast object on forecast models in order to identify possible acceptable, unacceptable forecast and alternative options developments of events.
Verification of the forecast - checking for truth, reliability. There are several ways to verify the forecast:
Direct (developing a forecast using a method different from the one originally used);
Indirect (comparison with forecasts obtained from other sources of information);
Repeated survey (use of additional justifications or the expert changing his assessment, which differs from the majority opinion.), etc.
4. Main stages of planning.
Depending on what plans we are talking about (state plans or organizational plans), the planning stages may vary. State planning is carried out according to strictly defined procedures, the order of which is fixed in specially developed methodological recommendations, based on the norms of Law 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation” or similar documents of regional or municipal levels of government. This will be discussed in detail in topic 4. In this lecture we will look at the planning procedure at the organization (enterprise) level.
In planning, as in the process, there are 4 main stages: drawing up a plan; acceptance of the plan; implementation of the plan; plan evaluation. When described in detail, the planning process is considered in the form of 12 stages. 1) justification of the goals of the activity;
2) collection of economic information;
3) carrying out a comprehensive economic analysis;
4) making forecasts;
5) planning itself - drawing up draft general and private plans;
6) approval of plans;
7) communicating plans to executors;
8) implementation of the plan by the executors;
9) control and monitoring of plan execution;
10) adjustment of the plan;
11) assessment of the results of the implementation of the plan;
12) preparation for the development of plans for the next period.
The sequence of stages presented in the list is not strictly fixed. Due to the effect of diverse feedbacks, there may be a need to adjust the results of the previous stage and coordinate decisions on adjacent sections of the plan. The orientation towards the mission of the enterprise remains “untouchable”, and specific means and the methods of its implementation may vary depending on the dynamically changing conditions of the external and internal environment of the enterprise.
As can be seen from the list of stages, planning is a continuous process in which the principles of succession and continuity are observed. The convention of the above list is that the stages can be delimited with varying degrees of detail, and various operations (stages) can alternate in different sequences; it is possible to return to previous stages for the purpose of adjustment or parallel work for several operations.
Within the given list of stages, we will consider the content of each of them.
1. Planning begins with the selection of priorities in the development of the enterprise, which corresponds to the definition of goals and methods for achieving them.
2. The work of collecting data in forecasting and planning is largely the same. However, when planning, information about the internal business environment is used primarily, while when forecasting, data on factors is of great importance external environment functioning of the enterprise.
3. Comprehensive economic analysis is carried out in the form of assessing information about the present and past in the activities of the enterprise, which is necessary to determine the future. In the process of economic analysis, data on the economic, commercial, technological, personnel and other conditions in the past and present are studied in order to assess the future conditions and results of the enterprise. Economic analysis is mandatory initial stage planning. It includes: calculations economic indicators; content analysis, i.e. determining positive performance results; identification of negative aspects in the results of the enterprise’s activities; general performance assessment; development of recommendations to improve the economic situation of the enterprise.
Standard procedures and techniques for economic analysis have been developed. The main methods of economic analysis include: comparison; grouping; index method; method of chain substitutions; graphic method; balance method; correlation and regression analysis; factor analysis; game theory; queuing theory, etc.
4. Based on data from a comprehensive economic analysis, forecasts are developed in the form of multivariate models (optimal, pessimistic and most realistic options).
5. The next stage of organizing work is planning itself, i.e. drawing up projects of general and specific plans. The content of planning is to perform a series of calculations in accordance with the accepted methodology and obtain a system of final planned indicators.
6. The process of approving planned indicators includes a preliminary discussion of the draft plan by the concerned departments of the company, its consideration by the top management of the enterprise, which approves the plan or returns it for revision. Statement official plans documented by a protocol, order or regulation.
7. After approval, plans are communicated to the executors: structural units, departments, services and individual workers. It is necessary to ensure that all performers correctly understand their functions.
8. The next step is the activity of implementing plans, in this work managers play a significant role. An important condition Success at this stage is mutual consistency and coordination of the activities of the enterprise divisions. If deviations occur in individual links of the production chain, the overall work cycle is disrupted.
9. The entire progress of the plan must be kept under control. For this purpose, control and monitoring of the execution of the plan is carried out, including all elements of the production process and its final result. The consumption of all types of resources is monitored, adherence to deadlines for production operations is verified, the economic effect of individual operations is assessed and production process generally.
10. During control and monitoring, deviations from planned tasks or changes in business conditions, which may require adjustments to the plan in terms of volumes, timing, and assortment. A difficult dilemma in planning theory is the conflict between two requirements: adequacy and stability of the plan. On the one hand, when developing a plan, it is necessary to ensure the possibility of its continuous adaptation to the changing conditions of the company's activities. On the other hand, the plan must be relatively stable so that it can truly serve as a guide to the operation of the enterprise. The resolution of this contradiction consists in making a compromise decision based on adjusting the plan (permanently or occasionally, as its operational changes accumulate). But both plans - the original and the adjusted one - must have constant final parameters-criteria that allow assessing the degree to which the final goals of the activity are achieved.
11. At the end of the planning period, the results of the implementation of the plan are summed up, the causes and factors of deviations are identified, if any, which should be taken into account when planning for the next period.
12. After the completion of the next planning period, it should be directly put into action new plan for the next planning period. Obviously, the preparation and development of a new plan should have been carried out well in advance during the period of validity of the previous plan.
An essential organizational issue of planning is the creation of conditions and the determination of measures to ensure the fulfillment of planned targets. The main ones are:
· detailed and specific description necessary actions;
· determination of the list of performers indicating the tasks they solve;
· establishing calendar deadlines for completing planned tasks;
· identification of centers of responsibility for each section of the plan and the plan as a whole;
· resource support, including financing, material support, organizational support, technological base, marketing activities, human resources potential and etc.
Lecture 2 BASICS OF MACHINERY DESIGN (MECHANISMS)
Lecture outline
1. Creation of new machine designs.
2. Development stages design documentation
1. Creation of new machine designs
The development of all industries largely depends on the technical level of the machines used. Each machine put into operation must surpass in its quality and technical and economic characteristics the best world models and machines of a similar class previously used in industry. Therefore the development modern designs machines is an important government task.
Providing machines for all industries requires the implementation of a large volume of design, scientific and technical developments in the field of preparation and development of production. This entire complex of work is the process of creating new modern machine designs.
In process new design The machine includes the following stages:
1) forecasting;
2) design (development of design documentation);
preparation of production (according to design documentation); |
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mastering production. |
Let us consider the content of these areas of work.
1. Forecasting machine designs
Forecasting in the field of creating new machine designs is becoming increasingly important and covers a wide range of scientific and technical areas. The value of forecasting increases when there are relatively frequent changes in design requirements.
One of the main provisions of scientific forecasting is that a statement about the likelihood of an event occurring is made based on an analysis of events that have already happened. In conditions of huge flows of information, having both a special and general technical direction, they turn out to be insufficient personal experience engineer and traditional methods anticipating the development of structures in the future. Due to the need for scientifically based prediction of the development of technology, technology for obtaining new materials, etc. Currently, engineering forecasting is intensively developing.
Engineering forecasting is understood as scientifically based information that reflects the potential possibilities of technology development in the form of a probabilistic category. Economic issues are included in the content of forecasting as an integral part. At the same time, technical forecasting creates the basis for economic forecasts.
The effectiveness of engineering forecasting before starting machine design is very significant and the costs of its implementation are well worth it. The complexity of developing engineering forecasting methods is explained by the fact that, firstly, the amount of initial information is insufficient and there is often no quantitative data by which possible design solutions can be assessed; secondly, the need to take into account a large number of parameters and connections between them even in a relatively simple project makes it difficult to evaluate it, since it is impossible or very difficult to give a generalized assessment of the design using equal criteria. All this indicates the need for appropriate preparation of initial information.
The basis of engineering forecasting is made up of three areas that determine the significance of new discoveries and inventions, the goal and technical strategy, and the promising level of development of machine design. The first two directions are used mainly for medium- and long-term forecasting (20-30 years), and the last direction is mainly used for short-term forecasting (5-10 years). In engineering forecasting, theoretical and experimental means of analysis and synthesis are used.
The variety of problems to be solved in the field of forecasting has led to the development of a large number of methods. The following forecasting methods are most widely used in technology.
1. Extrapolation method which is based on the transfer of the dynamics of events and conditions that took place in the recent past to the future. This method is widely used in short-term forecasting, mainly in areas of technology where significant qualitative changes in its development are not expected. The scope of this forecasting method is mainly events that develop in an evolutionary way and rather slowly over time.
Using the extrapolation method, two types of problems can be solved: 1) static ones, in which the connections between the main principle are analyzed;
sign and other parameters without taking into account the time factor; dynamic, in which the time factor is an indispensable component of the equations. When solving problems of the second type, a change in the main feature in the future is established. The initial information for solving such problems is a time series, reflecting the change in the main feature as a function of time. Forecasting the development of technology based on time series consists of the following main operations:
a) bringing the source information to a form acceptable for preliminary analysis row,
b) finding the relationship between the main parameter and the time factor;
c) checking the accuracy of forecasting according to the main parameter; d) adjusting the calculation results in case of significant differences
walks 2) Expert method assessments is that the group of specialists
sheets of experts pose a number of questions regarding the development of a given technical direction or "forecast object. Then, by mathematical processing of the results of a survey of experts, the prevailing opinion is established. Difficult when using this method, which is subjective in nature, is the selection of groups of experts, the establishment of principles for conducting a survey, and assessment of accuracy results, etc. This method is advisable to use in the absence of sufficiently systematized information about the past or in the case when scientific and technological development depends to a greater extent on the decisions made than on the technical capabilities themselves.
3). Simulation method characterized by the fact that the analysis of source data is carried out not on the objects under study, but on their models, made in accordance with the requirements of the theory of similarity. This method is based on the expedient abstraction of the processes of development of events in the future. The most general and at the same time quite strict direction is the method of mathematical modeling. Forecasting structures can be considered as part of research work aimed at selecting and preparing the source material necessary for the development of technical specifications for the design.
In Fig. Figure 1 shows a diagram of the forecasting process, which indicates the stages of forecasting and the connections between them. The starting point for forecasting is the goal of forecasting. Depending on it, the forecast object is also taken (link 1). The lead period and forecasting accuracy are set depending on the purpose and object of forecasting (links 2 and 3). The lead period (the period during which forecasting is carried out) depends on the required forecasting accuracy: the longer the lead period, the lower the forecasting accuracy; if it is necessary to increase the accuracy of forecasting, the lead period is reduced (relationship 4). Depending on the lead period, the required volume and content of initial data about the forecast object are established: the longer the lead period, the more complete the initial data should be; with a small amount of initial data, the lead period decreases (relationship 5).
The selected method for processing source data depends on the required forecasting accuracy: the higher the forecasting accuracy, the more accurate the method for processing source data should be; when accuracy decreases
forecasts are accepted less exact method processing of source data (relationship 6). To ensure the required forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to have the appropriate volume and content of initial data about the forecast object. As forecasting accuracy improves, the volume and content of input data should be more complete (relationship7).
The choice of method for processing initial data about a forecast object depends on the assumed lead period: the longer the lead period, the more accurate the method for processing initial data should be (relationship 8).
The presence of the volume and content of the source data determines the choice of method for processing it: the more complete the source data, the more accurate the method of processing it can be. At the same time, a certain method requires an appropriate amount of initial data (relationship 9). Having determined the volume and content of the initial data about the predicted object and adopting the appropriate method for processing the initial data, you can perform necessary calculations(link 10 and link 11). The calculations made should make it possible to obtain the required forecasting result (link 12), on the basis of which acceptable forecast options can be developed. It is possible that the resulting forecasting result will not fully meet the goal. In this case, it is necessary to clarify the individual stages of forecasting using feedback.
The considered forecasting process scheme may be unacceptable for some classes of design problems. In this case, forecasting should be carried out in the following sequence:
1) development general scheme forecasting;
2) establishing a set of predicted parameters;
3) determining the required forecasting accuracy;
4) establishing the duration of the lead period.
The forecasting process, based on accuracy requirements, can be divided into the following three parts:
1) deterministic, amenable to precise calculation;
2) probabilistic, which allows us to establish the expected pattern of the process;
3) “purely” random, which cannot be calculated.
Scientific forecasting of deterministic processes is characterized by the fact that the lead period can be significant, and at the same time the accuracy of forecasting does not decrease over time.
In probabilistic processes, the forecasting accuracy is lower. The use of deterministic and probabilistic parts in forecasting allows us to compare the predicted process with the actual course of the process and establish the influence of the “purely” random component. The relationship between deterministic, probabilistic and “purely” random components depends on the level scientific knowledge of the process under consideration and may change over time. Scientific and technological progress helps to increase the influence of the deterministic part in reducing the influence of other components. Therefore, increasing the significance of the deterministic component and the accuracy of the component probabilities leads to an increase in the overall forecasting accuracy. The duration of the lead period should be set taking into account, firstly, the duration of the implementation of the forecasted processes and, secondly, the possibility of clarifying the primary forecasting results as information is received about the progress of the implementation of the forecasted processes.
Forecasting machine designs includes consideration of the following basic principles.
1. Functional purpose.
2. Main technical and economic parameters.
3. Possible layout diagrams.
4. New materials and types of workpieces.
5. New technological processes, equipment and technological equipment.
6. New forms and methods of organizing and managing production.
7. Need and proposed plan for the production of machines.
8. Construction of a new or reconstruction of an existing enterprise
9. Efficiency from creating a new machine design.
It is also possible to predict individual machine parameters, for example, mass. In a number of designs special meaning becomes necessary to limit the weight of the machine by early stages design. To do this, similar designs are analyzed and a mathematical dependence of the mass on the main parameters of the machine is established. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the influence on the mass of parameters of the structural complexity of individual assembly units, as well as the coefficient of progressive reduction in the mass of the structure by improving calculation and design methods, using advanced materials, workpieces, etc.
2. Stages of development of design documentation
The stages of development of design documentation are established by GOST 2.103-68, which is included in unified system design documentation (ESKD). State standard establishes five stages in the development of design documentation for products from all industries: technical task, technical proposal, preliminary design, technical design and development working documentation
The process of developing design documentation is a gradual refinement of the project and an approach to the development of working documentation, according to which products are manufactured in single, serial or mass production. The multi-stage design process indicates the complexity of the task and high requirements for the quality of decisions made, since errors lead to the need to eliminate them during production, which causes unnecessary additional costs of time and money
Technical task contains the purpose, specifications and quality indicators, as well as technical and economic requirements for the machine design being developed, the number of stages in the development of design documentation and special requirements. It is desirable that the technical specifications indicate the production base, the volume of required and planned products, the duration of its production, possible ways modernization, etc. The terms of reference, after coordination and approval, are the basis for carrying out design developments.
Technical Proposal contains a technical and economic justification for the feasibility of designing a machine in accordance with the technical specifications, possible options for its implementation, as well as a comparison of the design being developed with similar ones, checking patentability, etc. The technical proposal, after coordination and approval, is the basis for performing subsequent stages of development of design documentation:
The preliminary design contains fundamental Constructive decisions giving general idea about the structure and principle of operation of the machine
us, as well as data defining its purpose, basic parameters and general form. The preliminary design, after coordination and approval, serves as the basis for further development of the project
Technical project contains final technical solutions, giving a complete understanding of the structure of the machine being developed and the necessary initial data for preparing working documentation. The technical design, after coordination and approval, serves as the basis for the development of working documentation.
Working documentation used to prepare a single. serial or mass production of machines. In the process of developing working documentation, technological and organizational factors of production are most fully taken into account. This stage of development is the longest and requires the most time and money. Working documentation is developed sequentially for the manufacture and testing of a prototype (batch), installation series and established serial or mass production. Engineering calculations in the design process, like the entire machine design process, are multivariate in nature, which creates favorable preconditions for choosing the optimal solution. Development stages are considered from these positions technical documentation shown in Fig. 2.
GOST 2. 103–68 (Fig. 2, a) provides for the sequential execution of work according to the technical specifications (TOR), technical proposal (TP), preliminary design (ED), technical design (TP-T) and working documentation (DD). In Fig. 2b shows a diagram for the development of design documentation, which reflects the multivariate nature of the process; as well as the way to select the optimal solution.
Before developing the design specifications, the process of design forecasting is introduced, as a result of which several forecast options may occur (P1, P2,..., Pi). THESE forecasts correspond to a number of variants of technical specifications (TZ1, TZ2, ...,
The level of optimality of the developed forecast options can be judged after their development and evaluation by preliminary versions of the technical specifications. As a result of comparing the developed forecasts with these technical specifications, they find optimal solution on forecasting (OP), on the basis of which the final versions of the technical specifications are then developed.
The developed versions of the technical specifications correspond to a number of options for preliminary technical proposals (TP1, TP2,... ..,TPk). By comparing these technical proposals with variants of the technical specifications, the optimal technical specifications (OTV) are established.
By analogy, the optimal technical proposal (OTP), the optimal preliminary design (OEP), and the optimal technical design (OTP-T) can be established. Optimal options determined on the basis of
delivering assessment results for two stages of development; -feedback between design stages indicates the possibility of clarifying previously made decisions. Development of design documentation options at all stages of design is difficult task with a large amount of work. However, the investment of time and money to complete this work is well worth it.
Control questions
1. What are the steps involved in the process of creating a new machine design?
2. What is the forecasting stage when creating a new machine design?
3. What stages of development of design documentation are established by GOST 2.103-68?
4. What does the “technical specification” stage regulate?
5. What does a “technical proposal” regulate?
6. What does the “dramatic design” regulate?
7. What does the “technical project” regulate?
8. What regulates the “development of working documentation”?